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German Invasion of the Low Countries preparatory to attack on the United Kingdom.

10. Paragraphs 53 and 60 of the appreciation contain

apparently divergent statements as to whether or not a

German invasion of the Low Countries is an essential

preliminary to attack on the United Kingdom.

We consider that a German occupation of the Low Countries is probably essential for actual invasion of the

United Kingdom; but that Germany could maintain a very high scale of air attack on this country, its ports and

shipping without violating Dutch or Belgian territory.

Unrestricted Offensive against British Sea-borne Trade.

The Allied Military Committee consider that an

unrestricted offensive against British sea-borne trade

by an intensification of the present naval and air attacks would offer Germany the best prospects of decisive

results against Great Britain. This, of course, is in accord with views previously expressed by the Chiefs

11.

of Staff but, in this connection, we would draw attention to the fact that recent air attacks on shipping in the

North Sea bear no relation to the scale of attack which

the German air force may make when the weather improves. Courses open to Germany.

12. The appreciation puts forward three main courses of action open to the enemy in the Spring of 1940, and suggests that the one selected will depend mainly on the personal and unpredictable decision of the Fuhrer.

Our view, however, is that Germany's military policy is far more likely to be based on strategical

considerations than it was before the war.

Richmond Terrace, S.W.1.

3rd March, 1940.

忄

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(Signed)

C.L.N. NEWALL.

#

DUDLEY POUND.

"

EDMUND IRONSIDE.

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