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It is true that even now a considerable proportion

of the German long-range bomber force has the range to reach

West Coast ports, and there are indications that longer-

range types are beginning to be produced. We shall,

however, always be able to afford a far higher degree of

protection to trade on the Western than on the Eastern

Seaboard.

23. We also suggest that it would be unwise to ignore

the possibility, or under-rate the possible effects, of a

preliminary attack on our air forces and certain key points

in the aircraft industry on which the air forces rely for

the maintenance of their effort. This the Germans might

well undertake in an attempt to cripple our defences before

turning to the main offensive against our ports and shipping.

Courses open to Germany

•

24. The appreciation puts forward three main courses of

action open to the enemy in the Spring of 1940, and suggests

that the one selected will depend mainly on the personal

and unpredictable decision of the Fuhrer.

Our view, however, is that Germany's military policy

is far more likely to be based on strategical considerations

than it was before the war.

Strength of Allied and Enemy Air Forces.

25. An estimate of British, French and German air forces

is made in paragraph 29 of Appendix II of the Joint

Appreciation,

In this respect we would remark that:-

(a) The Air Staff consider that the French

figures present an unduly gloomy picture. They believe that the French have in fact larger reserves than are shown.

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