CAB80-32 — Page 333

Page 333

Page 333

Forces, and has exercised control of the armed forces through the following machinery :-

(a) A Supreme Combined Defence Staff under Field-Marshal Keitel, and (b) Separate Commanders-in-Chief for the Army, Navy and Air Force.

Although the Supreme Combined Defence Staff has always been in a position to issue orders to the Commander-in-Chief of the Army, the latter had a direct responsibility to Hitler, and naturally the views of the General Staff carried very great weight. The principal result of the change in effect is to make Keitel Commander-in-Chief under Hitler an analogy is the position of the elder von Moltke under Kaiser Wilhelm I in 1870. It is impossible at this stage to decide why the change has been made or to assess its possible consequences. Coming as it does, however, on the heels of the reverses which have been sustained in Russia and in Libya, it is bound to prove a shock to the German public and from our point of view it certainly seems a hopeful sign.

France and Spain.

39. A large number of rumours are in circulation regarding the entry of German forces into Spain, but these may be attributed to the German war of nerves. There is no confirmation of any large-scale movement of German troops from Russia to France. On the other hand, there are indications that one low- category division may be in process of transfer to the Eastern front from the West.

Balkans.

40. The German rumour campaign is as active in Turkey as it is in the There Iberian Peninsula. This must also be an example of the war of nerves. have been several reports of German preparations for future military action based on Bulgaria.

Italy.

41. Press reports stating that martial law has been declared in a number of areas in Southern Italy are probably due to the fact that these areas have been The declared war zones, a term which corresponds to our defence areas. identification in recent months of a large number of coast defence battalions and so-called "anti-parachute" detachments also appears to indicate increasing nervousness about the possibility of invasion. These units are home defence troops of secondary value.

Bulgaria.

42. It is reported that a proportion of the men of various annual classes who were released in the autumn are now being recalled to the colours. There is, however, no sign of a general mobilisation. There have been no fresh troop movements towards the Turkish frontier, and the 4-5 divisions stationed in this area are stated to be kept at a distance of 20 kilom. from the actual frontier.

Far East.

This

43. Reliable reports indicate that a further mobilisation has been in progress in Japan since the 15th December and it seems probable that as a result a further ten divisions will be ready for service within two months. increase will raise the total strength of the Japanese army to its estimated ceiling of 72 divisions.

Japanese resources can support in addition 20 independent brigades, 18 tank regiments, 15 depot divisions and the necessary proportion of Corps and Army troops.

44. The course of operations during the past week shows clearly the determination of the enemy to secure a speedy conquest of Singapore and the Philippines. There are also indications of preparations for an attack on Burma and of operations to the South and South-East from bases in the Caroline and Marshall Islands.

It is estimated that they have approximately one division concentrated in the Marshall Islands at Jaluit. It is possible therefore that the Japanese intend

Page 333

Page 333

Page 333