CAB80-32 — Page 110

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Intelligence.

Spain.

43. Confirmation has been received of the report that the number of German divisions between the River Gironde and the Spanish frontier has been reduced to two. There seems, therefore, no likelihood of early German action against Spain.

Italy.

44. Reports continue to be received that the Italians are fortifying the Brenner. In view of the wide variety of sources from which these reports emanate, and the difficulty of seeing any reason why they should be deliberately spread by the Axis, it is not possible to dismiss them out of hand.

If these fortifications are in fact proceeding, it seems that it can only be due to the influence of a section of the army which is opposed to complete subservience to Germany. This faction must therefore either be sufficiently powerful to compel Mussolini to make concessions to its policy or be able to carry on the work without his knowledge.

Balkans.

45. There are indications that the strength of the German garrison in Crete may be raised from some 14,000 to approximately 30,000.

While the total number of German divisions in the Balkans is believed to remain at fourteen, it is possible that some transfer of German troops may have taken place recently from Bulgaria to the South Russian front.

Roumania,

46. A report announces the opening of a new railway in Bessarabia on the 25th October. This stretches between Anciz and Ismail Port and is 111 kilom. in length, linking up the port, which is on the north bank of the Danube near its mouth, with the main railway to Cetatea-Alba.

Bulgaria.

47. Bulgarian labour corps troops are reported to be working on the roads Skoplje Kustendil-Plovdiv and Seres-Drama-Xanthe. Work on North-South communications appears to have been suspended.

No detailed information is available regarding the extent of co-operation by Bulgarian forces in the German effort to restore order in Yugoslavia, but it is reliably reported that some towns south of Nis have been occupied by the Bulgarians.

Turkey.

48. A series of field defences are being constructed east of the Sea of Marmara, along the line of the Sakaria River from Bilecik (or possibly further south at Bozuyuk) through Geyve to the Black Sea. 10,000 labourers are said to be engaged.

North Africa.

49. It is believed that since the 19th November all members of the German Armistice Commission in North Africa have appeared in uniform and are carrying arms. It is reported that they have been given authority to make arrests and bring culprits before the French Courts.

A report just received states that 50 uniformed and armed Germans arrived by air at Casablanca on the 23rd November.

Far East.

50. The situation in the Far East continues to be dominated by the Washington negotiations. The possibility of a satisfactory settlement is still extremely doubtful.

At the same time Japanese military preparations are continuing in the south, whilst the situation in the north remains generally static.

It is reliably reported that since the beginning of November at least one Japanese division has been withdrawn from North or Central China through Shanghai. Its destination is at present unknown.

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