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During the frequent aerial bombardments of Canton in 1937 38, it was noticed that although the inhabitants left in great numbers when the bombing was on, if there was a "let-up" of two of three days, they nearly all be turned. The same thing was observed in the case of Chungking more recently. Judging by this precedent therefore, it seems likely that even if a large number of Chinese can be induced to evacuate now, they will probably all come back after a few days, when no attack materialises. In any case, there is scarcely anywhere they can go to, as Macau, the only open port, is already grossly over-populated with refugees of its ovn, and we in Hong Kong are liable to receive a deluge of refugees from the Portuguese and French Colonial possessions if trouble occurs there first.

The above considerations apply only to the law- abiding majority, and the question is further complicated by the presence of several thousands of undesirables of the criminal type, who would find a heaven-sent opportunity in the chaotic conditions created by a Japanese attack. Looting, burglary, rape and murder would be added to any fifth column activities. It is extremely probably that the police force would have its hands completely full in trying to control the ordinary civilian populace, and unlikely that it would have men to spare for any other activities for which it may have been ear- marked under the Defence Scheme, In view of the total absence of air raid shelters in the Chinese section of Victoria and Kowloon it is difficult to believe that the present A.K.P. and Fire-fighting services will be adequate to cope with the devastation wrought by systematic daily bombing by a minimum of 200 planes, which is the number we can confidently expect.

It is a source of never failing wonder to visitors to the Colony who have seen the effects of air raids in Canton, Hankow or Chungking, why no provision has been made for dugouts for the populace, especially on the island. If this measure is regarded as impracticable for one reason or another, it might be better to declare Kowloon (or part of it) an open town. This would perhaps do some thing to mitigate what otherwise promises to be one of the bloodiest holocausts in history, if and when Japanese bombing starts in earnest. The alternative is the prospect of thousands of stinking corpses and a fear maddened populace milling over the hillsides or sculling over the waters, thus impeding the defences.

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