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а

(THIS DOCUMENT IS THE PROPERTY OF HIS BRITANNIC MAJESTY'S GOVERNMENT.)

TO BE KEPT UNDER LOCK AND KEY.

It is requested that special care may be taken to ensure the secrecy of this document.

135

SECRET.

C.O.S.(40) 819 (J.I.C.).

Also J.I.C.(40) 306).

10TH OCTOBER, 1940.

1

WAR CABINET.

819 (J.I.C.)

201

COPY NO.

CHIEFS OF STAFF COMMITTEE.

POSSIBLE AXIS INTENTIONS.

Memorandum by the Joint Intelligence Sub-Committee.

In J.I.C. (40) 144 dated 2nd July, the Joint Intelligence Sub-Committee considered Germany's next move. The conclusion was reached that a move against Great Britain was the most probable step, and that operations might start at any time and extend to Ireland, Iceland, the Shetlands and Faroe Islands. In addition, attacks on Egypt and Gibraltar were considered possibilities, while intervention in South- East Europe was considered to be a likely event if the situation in the Balkans deteriorated.

2.

Since that date, Great Britian has gained three valuable months in which to strengthen her defences, has destroyed a large number of German aircraft, impaired the morale of the German and Italian people to some extent by successful air attacks, secured a greater measure of American co-operation and material help, and enhanced her prospects of succesful resistance and ultimate victory.

3.

We consider that the Axis Powers have now the choice of one or more of the following courses.

4.

(a) Invasion of the United Kingdom; (6)

Intensified blockade by sea and air action

against our shipping and the United Kingdom; (c) Attack on Egypt.

(d)

(e)

An advance to the South-east through Bulgaria

and Turkey, possibly the occupation of Greece, with the Middle East, and in particular the Suez Canal, as the ultimate objective.

The capture of Gibraltar and the occupation of

North and North-west Africa with the object of gaining control of the Western Mediterranean.

In the case of (a) above, the time of year, the failure to secure air supremacy and some measure of control at sea, and

* Also C.0.9.(40) 518 (J.I.C.)

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