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(b) Defence her neutrality against any
attack.
(c) Organize anti-British activities in
Palestine. Trans-Jordan and Syria, financed by the Axis powers.
(d) Conclude, with the assistance of other
Arab states, a secret agreement with the Axis powers concerning economic and cultural advantages.
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The Iraqi Prime Minister, Rashid Ali Gailani, is known to be an admirer of the Italians and is doing his best to demonstrate among Arab nationalists the advantage of not having broken off diplomatic relations with Italy. The Italian Minister in Baghdad is taking full advantage of Rashid Ali's sympathies. On the other hand the Regent is loyal, and the present Cabinet tends to be unpopular. A large proportion of the tribes are still pro-British.
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From the above reports, it is clear that the situation in Iraq has become extremely dangerous and should it further deteriorate the following implications may arise:-
(a) Active hostility on the part of the Iraqis may make it impossible to use the overland route for the passage of troops from Basra to Haifa or for the maintenance of our forces in the Middle East. This contingency however is unlikely to arise unless either Syria or Iraq is in enemy hands or we suffer a defeat which would convince the Iraqis that we are unable to win the war.
(b) The Empire air route from Egypt to India,
the Far East and Australasia passes through Iraq, and difficulties may be expected to arise in obtaining facilities which are now provided without question. If it proved to dangerous to operate this route, the alternative route via the Red Sea could be used though, owing to the proximity of Italian air bases in Italian East Africa, it would be far less convenient.
(c) The Iraqis might cut off at source the oil
which is pumped across the desert to Haifa; although Iraq's economic dependence upon trade with Britain and her inability to dispose of her oil to any other purchaser give us some hold upon her.
The possibility that Iraq's hostility might influence Iran and so reduce the reliability of Abadan as a source of oll would be more serious.
(a) Should Iraq and Iran become completely
subservient to the Axis Powers our enemies would be at the gates of INDIA.
Clar
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