CAB80-13 — Page 30

Page 30

Page 30

PLANS TO MEET A CERTAIN EVENTUALITY.

Aide Memoire for His Majesty's Ambassador at Washington.

Page 30

32

24

In the event of France being forced to capitulate,

The military situation we intend to continue the struggle. which would confront us would be as follows:

General Situation.

2.

All French European and Northern African territory and resources would become available to the enemy in due course, though elements of the fleet and certain forces in the French Empire might continue to assist in the war. It is by no means improbable, however, that the French might be forced to hand over their fleet and our enemies would thereby gain a considerable accession of naval strength. All existing European neutrals, with the possible exception of Turkey, would eventually fall under German or Italian military or economic domination and our position in the Mediterranean and the Middle East might be ultimately reduced to denying the Suez Canal to the enemy. The attitude of India might be doubtful, but, with the possible exception of Eire, the whole Empire would increase their efforts in our support. Japan might attempt a more

Russia would actively opportunist policy in the Far East.

probably become alarmed at Germany's success and cease to assist her.

Ability to Defeat Germany.

30

We consider that in these circumstances the defeat of Germany could still be achieved but only by a combination of economic pressure, air attack on economic objectives in Germany, and with its resultant effect on German morale, and the creation of wide spread revolt in the conquered territories.

4.

It would be essential to secure the British Isles as the main base for the operation of naval and air forces since we could not maintain our air offensive against Germany from the American Continent nor employ our fleet effectively unsupported by the naval resources of this country.

The final issue will therefore hang at first on our ability to withstand the great effort which the enemy is likely to make against Great Britain in the immediate future. If we can withstand the effects of large scale air attack against our industry, our ports and centres of population, by denying to the enemy air superiority over this country and its approaches, we hope to resist invasion successfully. In this connection the direct danger is the extreme vulnerability of our aircraft industry.

At the same time, we shall have to withstand intensified naval and air attacks against our seaborne trade, to meet which there is an acute shortage of destroyers and flying boats.

-1-

Page 30

Page 30Page 31