CAB80-13 — Page 214

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Likelihood of Attack,

3.

The increased strategic importance of Iceland, coupled with the establishment of a German base at Trondhjem and the reduction of their commitments in France, has resulted in an increased likelihood of a German attack. This might be undertaken either as a separate move in their general plan, or as a diversion in connection with an invasion of the United Kingdom." The latter is considered the more probable, in which case it may be expected to be timed to precede the main attack so as to draw off our main naval forces. In view of the distances involved this would be a most effective form of diversion from the German point of view, and it may be noted in passing that they have already employed this strategem in connection with their Norwegian operations.

Scale of Attack.

4.

In our previous appreciation (Paper No. C.0.S. (40) 414) we assessed the scale of attack as follows:

"no scale of seaborne attack larger that an raid is

likely: but we cannot neglect the possibility of one

or two large ships evading the blockade and landing several thousands of men with rations and stores for several weeks, and the ground echelon and stores for a bomber unit.

Iceland would be liable to a light scale of bomber attack from Norway; and there is always the possibility of an airborne landing.

In addition, the internal security commitment would be increased in the event of a bombing attack on the local population".

If the attack were undertaken as a diversion, the above scale of attack is unaltered, but if as a separate move the Germans might well consider it worth while under- taking a larger scale operation in spite of the manifest risks entailed.

Defence Problems.

5.

We can never be sure of intercepting a German seaborne expedition from Norway to Iceland, especially when the weather is thick and the nights are long, and consequently it is essential that the scale of defence should be sufficient to repulse any likely scale of attack which might be undertaken as a diversion, or, in the event of a larger scale operation, to prevent the Germans getting firmly established before reinforcements could arrive.

6

A note on the physical characteristics, etc., of Iceland is at Annex II. After the end of September climatic conditions will make it impossible for enemy aircraft to make use of the various possible landing grounds.

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