CAB80-13 — Page 199

Page 199

Page 199

(c) Further deterioration in the food situation.

This would in turn re-act unfavourably upon:-

(d) Civilian morale and industrial efficiency.

183

The above conclusions are based on the assumption that, 1 w111 be possible, with the whole-hearted co-operation of the American Continent, to maintain an effective blockade of Germany's overseas trade.

56 We not think, however, that any of these factors, except shor age of food, and possibly oil, are likely to bring about the military collapse of Germany next Spring.

The shortage of food and oil would be accentuated by systematic destruction of crops and oil storage tanks, and synthetic plant.

Ба

If, on the other hand, in the interval she suffers a severo setback, deterioration in her general situation would bo rapid.

It should be added that, if Germany is for any reason able to lessen her present military effort, her powers of resistance will, so far as we can see, be limited only by the food situation re-acting on the civilian morale.

Richmond Terrace, S.W.1

મ

*

(Signed)

V. CAVENDISH BENTINCK.

Page 199

2-

J.H. GODFREY.

F.G. 1EAUMONT-NESBITT.

A.R. BOYLE.

S.G. MENZIES.

N.F. HALL.

Page 199

Page 199