CAB80-13 — Page 147

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4.

(a) It does not lie between the Italian Fleet

and our vital Atlantic trade routes;

(b) With France out of the war, an increasingly

heavy scale of Italian and German air attack can be brought to bear on the Fleet both at sea and in harbour;

(c) Alexandria lacas adequate repair facilities;

our Fleet will be a wasting asset and will not be available to reinforce our forces in the vital areas at home and in the Atlantic;

(d) On account of (b) and (c) above our Fleet will with time become less able to interfere with Italian lines of communication in the Mediterranean.

With French Atlantic ports and possibly Spanish Atlantic ports in German hands, the scale of raider attack on our Atlantic Trade will be heavily increased, the more so, if the Italian fleet leaves the Mediterranean. If battleship escorts for the Atlantic become essential, they can only be provided by the battleships now forming part of Eastern Mediterranean Fleet.

5

From the purely Naval point of view in relation to the war at sea as a whole, there is a strong case for withdrawing our fleet from the Eastern Mediterranean at

once.

Against the naval advantages of withdrawal, however,

must be set the following factors: -

(a) The effect on the military and political

situation in Egypt and the Middle East;

(b) The effect on the economic position of

Germany and Italy.

Military and political situation in the Middle East.

6•

Apart from internal security duties, our forces in Egypt are designed to meet Italain attack from Libya. They are not strong enough both to hold the Western Desert and to repulse an enemy expedition once it achieved a landing, which, in the absence of naval opposition, it might do in several places between Haifa and Mersa Matruh.

7. Withdrawal of the fleet would be interpreted through- out the Middle East as a sign of weakness. It would probably involve, almost at once, a serious internal Security problem in Egypt and Iraq.

8

The attitude of the Turks is at present equivocal. They have not fulfilled their obligations under the Tripartite Convention of 1939, which has in any event presumably ceased to be operative since the withdrawal of France from an active part in the war.

There is no sign

as yet that the Turks are likely to join our enemies, but the withdrawal of the fleet would make them more susceptible to severe pressure from the Axis Powers.

A military withdrawal from the Middle East (which might ultimately be forced on us if the fleet were withdrawn

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