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(e.) Japan.—The nearest base in Japan is Nagasaki, 4,140 miles distant from

Sydney.

Japan has a standing army of nineteen divisions complete and fit for service in every detail. A division at war strength is about 20,000 men. With the addition of certain reserve brigades and of her national army, Japan could probably place over a million men in the field.

10. Having regard to the comparative weakness of their naval and military forces in the Pacific and to the remoteness of their bases from Australian territory, it is to the last degree improbable that either France or Germany could bring against Australia any military landing force more formidable than the present defences are calculated to neet, viz., a maximum landing force of 1,000 men. While Russia, in spite of her great military resources in Eastern Asia, owing to her naval weakness appears for the present to be precluded from undertaking serious operations oversea.

11. In view of the limited military force available in the Philippines and of the remoteness of the contingency of a war with the United States, it is not necessary, in calculating the standard of the local defences required in Australia, to take into special consideration the scale of attack that could be brought to bear by that Power.

12. As regards Japan, the existence of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance has, up to the present time, relieved us from the necessity of considering the scale of attack that modern Japan could bring to bear on British possessions in the Pacific. For, so long as the Japanese Alliance remains operative, not only is the risk of attack by Japan excluded from the category of reasonable probabilities to be provided against, but British naval requirements are held to be adequately met if the combined British and Japanese forces in the Eastern seas are superior to the forces of any probable combination of two naval Powers.

13. Having regard to these considerations, the Admiralty adhere to the view that under existing conditions it is not reasonably probable that any land attack on Australia, more formidable than a raid by a small landing force such as could be conveyed by three or four unarmoured cruisers, will be undertaken.

14. The above opinions regarding the scale of probable naval attack and attack by military landing forces are based upon a consideration of the strategic conditions created by the existence of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance.

Should the Anglo-Japanese Alliance be determined, changes in the strategic situation would ensue which might have far-reaching effects upon the position of Australia and necessitate a reconsideration of the scale of probable attack.

(Signed)

February 24, 1911.

J. R. CHANCELLOR, Secretary,

Colonial Defence Committer.

FRINTED AT THE FOREIGN OFFICE BY J. V. HARRISON.-

N.—25/2/1911.

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