CAB129-52 — Page 176

Page 176 that of 1951, and will be back where it was before the liberalisation of imports began in 1949.

8. In rationed foods £24 million is uncommitted, the main items being bacon, butter, eggs, and oils and fats. If the uncommitted purchases were stopped and stock levels maintained, the bacon ration would be reduced by one ounce for about 18 weeks. The butter ration would have to be reduced and, as there could be no compensating increase in the margarine ration, the total fats ration in the second half of 1952 would be only 8 ounces for 23 weeks and 7 ounces for 3 weeks instead of the present 9 ounces a week. The eggs distributed on allocation would be about five fewer than the present programme provides, i.e., some 12 per cent. down. Furthermore, we could not completely stop the import of Danish bacon and eggs when the present contracts end in September without provoking immediate reprisals which might more than offset the saving.

9. On wheat and flour it would not be possible to stop all uncommitted purchases (£24 million) without risking interruption of bread supplies. About £9.2 million could be saved by reducing end-December stocks from the programmed 16 weeks' consumption to 13 weeks', but we should have to pay more next year for the same wheat.

10. The uncommitted private imports (controlled) total £4 million, uncom- mitted Government imports of unrationed foods (dried fruits, rice, egg products) £7 million and linseed oil £3 million. The uncontrolled imports are estimated at £27 million-tea and cocoa £3 million, wines and spirits £7 million, fresh fish £4 million, citrus fruit £1 million, fresh vegetables £6 million. The technical difficulty of controlling wines and spirits and fresh fish is virtually insuperable; savings could be made on citrus fruit and fresh vegetables, but retail prices might well rise. Further, it is not known how far private commitments already exist and there would be risks of retaliation throughout this field.

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11. On coarse grains, it would be possible to save £12 million (i.e., 400,000 tons out of 692,000 uncommitted-£23 million) if the end-December stock was left at last year's level and if total consumption of feeding-stuffs were kept at the same level as in the second half of last year. This would mean that present ration scales, which were fixed on 1st January, 1952, could be maintained at their reduced level on the assumption that the proportion of ration coupons taken up remains at about its present level-though there can be no guarantee of this. But, it would be un- desirable to reduce stocks to the level of last December, when they were too low, because if purchases are not spread they generally cost more and because of the risk that we might be unable to make a new Russian contract.

12. Ministry of Materials.—The main uncommitted elements are in softwood, pulp and paper, fertilisers and a number of miscellaneous materials, largely uncon- trolled, from Europe. The major non-ferrous metals are virtually fully committed. Among the textile materials, cotton is wholly committed in the sense that the Raw Cotton Commission and the trade have been informed of Ministers' recent decisions on the 1952-53 cotton import programme and spinners are deciding, on the strength of the allocations notified to them, whether to exercise their option to buy privately. Of the £2.2 million programme for miscellaneous controlled textiles, about two-thirds is uncommitted. The programme for cotton linters and manilla (£2.3 million) is committed for rather less than half this amount.

13. In softwood all except 85,000 standards in a programme of 640,000 standards is committed by Timber Control purchases and quotas for private trade. This is equivalent to the timber required for about 50,000 houses; if it were not bought (saving £6 million) a corresponding reduction in use for housing would be necessary. The stocks will in any event be dangerously low.

14. The non-sterling programme for woodpulp, paper and board, including newsprint, is £65.9 million. Of this, all the newsprint and the dollar pulp is committed, leaving £42 8 million uncommitted. It has been possible to make. larger savings than were agreed by Ministers in March. The consumption of paper and board (other than newsprint) in the next year will be about 20 per cent. below 1951. The difficulty in making further savings is less one of impact on the United Kingdom economy, although shortages of essential types of paper might quickly appear, than of the negotiating problem with the Scandinavians. We have taken strong action to drive prices down, and if we press too hard on quantity also we phay provokeretaliations on our exports.

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