CAB129-45 — Page 35

becomes available in the United States, and very probably longer. Produc- tivity in the cotton industry is likely to be adversely affected by changes in the methods of production arising from the shortage of American cotton and of rayon staple fibre, and from proportionately increased use of other types of cotton. The scarcity of raw wool has led to very high prices, and less is therefore likely to be consumed this year than last. Some part at least of this fall in wool consumption should be made good by increased use of recovered wool, and some lowering of the quality of cloth may help to lessen the reduction in yardage which might otherwise have occurred.

80. Little increase in volume can be expected in exports of yarns if suffi- cient supplies are to be retained for further processing at home. The burden of achieving the required expansion in exports will therefore fall on piece- goods and made-up clothing, and these do not so readily secure an entry into some overseas markets as yarns. Nevertheless, while it may not prove possi- ble to achieve more than a moderate increase in the volume of textile exports, textile prices have generally advanced by very much more than the average for prices of semi-manufactures and of finished goods. Textiles, and particu- larly wool goods, should therefore earn appreciably bigger returns in foreign exchange.

81. Shortages of raw materials, increased defence orders and the drive to expand exports must lead to some reduction in supplies of textiles to the home market in 1951. However, since a substantial part of the deliveries to the home market in 1950 appears to have gone into stock, the quantities of most kinds of cloth and clothing available to the public in 1951 may not be much less than the quantities actually bought in 1950; and the con- siderable further increase in prices can hardly fail to reduce demand some- what below that of 1950.

Agriculture

82. The agricultural expansion programme launched in 1947 made sub- stantial progress in 1950, despite a poor cereal harvest in the Western parts of the country. The programme was designed to raise output by 1952-53 to roughly 50 per cent. above the 1936-39 average; in 1949-50 output was 39 per cent. higher than the latter figure, and in 1950-51 it should turn out at over 40 per cent. higher. Table 10 gives the main developments. It will be seen in particular that the output of livestock and livestock products has been increasing rapidly. This expansion has been largely the result of greater production and fuller use of our grasslands, with better conservation of the product; the quantity of silage made in 1950 was double that of the previous year.

83. The outlook for 1951-52 is chequered. As the result of a wet autumn and winter, crop acreages in 1951 may be lower than in 1950, particularly for wheat. Defence requirements and raw material shortages are bound to have some impact. For instance, the call-up of agricultural workers is being resumed, although those who register for National Service this year will not be taken until after the harvest. Owing to the shortage of sulphuric acid, the production of super-phosphate fertilisers has had to be reduced, and supplies may be scarce.

84. Shortages of sheet steel and zinc, together with defence demands upon the engineering and building industries, are likely to affect the supply of farm equipment and to slow down investment in agricultural machinery and, in some areas, investment in new form building and improvements. This is bound eventually to have repercussions on the rate of increase of agricul- tural output as a whole. It may also make it more difficult for farmers to switch from one line of production to another, thus interfering with the desired transfer of resources to meat production. Again, while the supply of imported animal feeding-stuffs is at present just adequate, there may be difficulties for the future because of the large proportion of the total supply which comes from uncertain sources.

85. In spite of these handicaps agricultural output should increase further over the next year or two. There is a good deal of natural momentum in the excellent expansion recorded over the last few years. The development of the use and conservation of grass should continue; new and improved varieties of crop plants, both home-bred and imported, are replacing older and less productive types; there are important developments in the control of weeds, insect pests and plant diseases; supplies of most fertilisers should be fully maintained, and-despite higher costs— usage of fertilisers has risen and become more efficient; the stock of farm machinery should increase further, even if not as rapidly as hitherto; and there is still a steady rise in milk yields, reflecting better management, improved breeding, increased con-

paloof sattle disease and more adequate nutrition. It will be the chief task 587

the agricultural industry over the next year or two to make the of these favourable trends and possibilities.

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