CAB129-45 — Page 27

11657-Economic Survey-Galley 8

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often mean no more than that the nature of the work being done by the existing labour in existing factories is changed, or that the Government takes products previously sold to private purchasers. In so far as this is so, no serious labour problem is involved. But in certain engineering industries there will have to be an increase in the total labour force in existing plants; for instance, about 175,000 additional workers are estimated to be required for aircraft factories and Royal Ordnance Factories in the course of the next two years. In addition, some new capacity, especially for jet aero- engines and tanks, will need to be manned. In the shipbuilding and ship- repairing industries the effect of the defence programme, together with the recent increase in commercial orders, should be to arrest the decline in the labour force that would otherwise have taken place over the next few years. 33. There will not therefore need to be so much movement of labour from one job to another, or from one place to another, as a figure of over half a million extra workers for defence production might suggest. When the pro- gramme gathers momentum, substantial movements will be necessary, but the more immediate problems are likely to be of a detailed character. Local shortages of labour may develop in certain areas, and in the early stages one of the most difficult problems facing industry as a whole is likely to be find- ing the highly skilled workpeople, such as draughtsmen and jig- and tool- makers, who will be urgently needed to prepare the production lines for defence contracts.

34. The employment problems of rearmament cannot be considered in isolation. Much will depend on how successfully pressure of civil demand is kept in check. Much also will depend upon the extent of raw material shortages and the measures taken to reduce their impact on essential work. In some cases the allocation of scarce materials and control over output will make it impossible for particular firms to keep their existing labour fully and usefully employed. Release of labour under such circumstances will help in providing workers needed for defence production, so long as it is in the right areas and the labour is of the right type.

35. The Government intends to keep in close consultation with both sides of industry on the general situation, and on particular problems as they arise. Special attention is now being given to the labour requirements of defence work in the engineering industries. The system of labour preferences is being operated by the Employment Exchanges in order to place workers, so far as possible, in jobs of special importance where their skills will be fully used. Encouragement is being given to schemes of training, up-grading and dilution, and these will be supplemented by training in Government Training Centres on the lines that proved successful in the last war. Industry is also being urged, where appropriate, to consider the introduction of systematic overtime. For the present, these measures seem likely to be adequate, but if it appears later that exceptional measures are necessary to ensure adequate supplies of labour, the Government will not hesitate to take them.

Coal

[NOTE.-The following paragraphs on coal ha e been submitted by the Ministry of Fuel and Power. There has been no opportunity for these to be discussed inter- departmentally before printing; this will be done, however, before the draft is considered by Ministers.]

[36. Since the beginning of 1951 manpower in the mines has continued the increase which began in the previous November when a stop was put to the downward trend which had been in operation for nearly two years. The actual increase in the first eight weeks of the year amounted to 11,500, and the numbers are still going up. After an initial setback, due largely to an outbreak of influenza, attendance has also improved, and, this, with the greatly extended Saturday working, has led to an increase in the average number of shifts worked weekly. In the same period output per manshift was about 3 per cent. higher than in the corresponding weeks in 1950. The combined effect of these factors has been to secure an increase in deep-mined output of 1.1 million tons (3.1 per cent.) over the level of the previous year.] [37. It is hoped that, in general, conditions will remain favourable during the summer, but. owing to the many doubtful factors involved and, in particular to the doubts regarding the future movement of colliery manpower in the face of the growing demands of the re-armament industries, it is not possible at this stage to forecast the out-turn of the year as a whole. This is however not of great importance, since the outlook for the winter depends largely upon the level of stocks built up during the previous summer. Subject to the qualifications noted above, it is expected that, this summer, Ragecam apples will amount to about 108 million tons (delago 27 of 587

million tons; opencast, 7 million tons). Inland consumption has been pro- visionally estimated at 95 million tons, if the average temperature this summer

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