CAB129-35 — Page 318

Page 318-

Printed for the Cabinet. July 1949

SECRET

C.P. (49) 144

6th July, 1949

CABINET:

Copy No.31

MEAT SOURCES OF SUPPLY OTHER THAN ARGENTINA

MEMORANDUM BY THE MINISTER OF FOOD

On 10th March (C.M. (49) 19th Conclusions, Minute 5 (3)), the Cabinet asked me to prepare a paper setting out what steps could be taken to make the United Kingdom less dependent upon Argentine meat supplies. I give below a survey of the whole field of possible sources of meat supply throughout the world.

Introduction

2. Before the war the United Kingdom consumed something over 2 million tons of meat a year. Of this total, about half came from home production, and half from overseas. About 90 per cent, of our imports were drawn from the Argentine, Australia and New Zealand of these countries the Argentine was by far the largest supplier.

We are now getting only about 75 per cent. of our pre-war supplies. The main decrease has been in home

of over 1 million tons to soon, which has fallen from a pre-war average

tons in 1948.

Imports have from 1 million tons to 875,000 tons in 1948. The following table illustrates the position:-

Sources of the United Kingdom's Supplies of Carcase Meat and Offal

Supplying country.

Australia

New Zealand

Canada

Argentine

Pre-war average 19474

1948

Thousand tons (bone-in)

202

178

150

263

358

367

6

18

20

438

445

310

Uruguay

Brazil

Chile

42

12

16

31

2

1

11

6

6

Denmark

2

30

3

United States

12

55

Miscellaneous

12

2

2

Total imported

1,019

1,106

875

United Kingdom home production

1,096

719

720

Total supplies

2,115

1,825

1,595

3. With the increase in population, the impact of full employment, and the more equitable distribution of wealth, the potential effective demand for meat at present prices is estimated at up to 2,500,000 tons a year. Thus the supplies of approximately 1,600,000 tons which we received in 1948 represent only about two-thirds of the fatale supplies which we would like to have 318 of 366

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the end of the war it was clear uge, owing to me ploughing up of grass and the reduction of flocks and herds in the war areas, there would be an acute shortage of meat. So far as our principal overseas suppliers were concerned (Australia, New Zealand and Argentina), it was realised that the basis for increasing production would have to be found in assurances that they could expect a continuing and unlimited market in the United Kingdom for many years at fair prices. In order to give the necessary assurances, the system of long-term contracts was started with Australia and New Zealand as long ago as 1944. In October of that year we signed four-year contracts with those countries. We have since signed a seven-year contract with New Zealand and extended the Australian contract for two years pending signature of a new long-term contract (we have fifteen years in mind).

Contracts were agreed for shorter periods with Argentina and Uruguay and the periods would have been extended if relations with those countries had developed differently...

Home Production}{

5. Home-killed supplies continue to be some 300,000 tons a year below the pre-war average. The reasons for this are well known. Apart from the ploughing up during the war of much of the grassland to grow more grain, they include the heavy losses of livestock during the severe winter of 1946-47, the priority given to increased milk production, and the continuing shortage of imported feeding-stuffs. But we have touched bottom and from now on we can hope for a steady improvement under the Government's programme of agricultural expan- sion and guaranteed prices, calf-rearing schemes and the like, especially with the more intensive development of our grasslands and with the natural liking of the British farmer for livestock production. The June 1948 census showed some very promising signs of recovery: Thus 200,000 more calves were reared than in the previous twelve months, there was a recovery in breeding ewes, the lamb crop was exceptionally good, and breeding sows and gilts increased from 162,000 at June 1947 to 270,000 in June 1948. degh wor

↑

6. The following table gives particulars of home production (excluding fat stock from Southern Ireland) before the war, in 1947 and 1948, and the targets for 1952-53 :—

!

United Kingdom Meat Production

Expansion Programme

Pre-war Average

1947

1948

Targets 1952-53

Thousans tons carcase weight(a)

Beef and Veal

578

497

Mutton and Lamb

195

117

124

493 01636 162

A

Pigmeat (excluding bacon and

self supplies)

173

14

20 ukiba255

Total

946

628

637

853

NOTE (a): excluding offal.

CC

""

7. If we could expand the pig population by increasing the feeding-stuffs ration, it would be the quickest way of increasing home meat supplies. The total animal feeding-stuffs in the form of concentrates which are available in 1948-49 amount to some 8 million tons, which is on the way to a restoration of the pre-war supply of between 11 and 12 million tons. The level in 1949–50 will of course depend upon the supplies obtained from the U.S.S.R. and Argentina,

The Irish Republic

"

8. Our principal imports from the Irish Republic are stores, and the recently improved prices to British farmers will be reflected in the prices which they wall be able to pay for these stores. An increase in the numbers shipped to the United Kingdom to be fattened is highly desirable. Last year we received only 282,661 head against an average of 492,928 in 1934-38. But we have taken

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special steps to secure an improvement. I agreed with the Fire Government last year to pay the same price, both for their cattle sent here as fat cattle and for their store cattle fattened here, as we pay for United Kingdom bred cattle (after allowing for the pre-war subsidy). In return the Eire authorities agreed to limit their exports to continental Europe to 10 per cent. of their total exports. During the first quarter of 1949 imports of fats and stores from Eire were 99,812 head as compared with 86,146 in the first quarter of 1948.00

Supplies from Continental Europe

9. Most continental European countries, in particular Belgium, Holland, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Switzerland and Western Germany, are net importers of meat. In 1948 they took from South America upwards of 170,000 tons which otherwise would have come to us. Even France bought in South America last year. Whenever we discuss trade with a European country we ask whether any meat is likely to be available not only do the quantities generally turn out to be negligible, but the country in question has seldom the necessary facilities for processing and transporting any meat that might be available.________

The quantity of mutton and beef available from Europe is never likely to be substantial, except perhaps in the case of France (see below). Pigmeat is more promising

France

10. As regards France, we have reached agreement upon measures which will permit the import of meat while at the same time safeguarding the health of our own herds. Unfortunately no more is likely to be available for the next few months than about 2,500 tons of frozen pork now, with some thousands of tons later in the year. We are arranging for trial consignments to be sent over and these will be used for making sausages, &c. We shall do everything we can to encourage further imports, not only of pigmeat, but of beef also, but the quantities will not be considerable for some time. The French authorities have suggested that they may be able to export annually perhaps 20,000 tons from a year hence, rising up to 120,000 tons in four years, but experience has taught us to be rather wary of such estimates.

Denmark

_______11._ Denmark undertook to send us 11,000 tons of beef during 1948. So far she has been able to supply only 3,000 tons, and future prospects are not hopeful.

Iceland

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12. During the war we received small quantities of mutton from this (1,900 tons in 1943 and 1,700 tons in 1944), but the quality was poor and the price exorbitant. No substantial quantities can be looked for in the future, but we shall take any that is available at satisfactory prices.

Yugoslavia

13. For some time the Yugoslavs have been saying that they would like to develop meat production for the United Kingdom and they aim to export 30,000 tons a year of beef, veal, mutton and lamb in four or five years' time. But this year meat is so short in Yugoslavia that we can count upon very little of the 1,500 tons of carcase meat provided for in the 1948-49 agreement. Nor can we expect much in 1950. The Yugoslavs are also planning to send us up to 10,000 tons of pigmeat as bacon by 1952-53. No additional supplies of pigmeat can be secured unless we are prepared to substitute pork for other carcase meat.

Roumania

די:

14. As the result of persistent enquiries on our part, the Roumanians have now indicated that from 10,000 to 15,000 tons of meat, some of which would be canned, might be available for early delivery to the United Kingdom. But the question whether these supplies can be secured is likely to turn upon our ability to concede the rights for which the Roumanians are asking in relation to exports from the United Kingdom. At the moment it seems probable that serious difficul- ties will arise. The matter is now being discussed and possibilities we of

will be followed up with vigour, but at this stage we cannot be optimistic.

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Turkey

Page

15. Potions that small quantities of meat my available from Turkey

Page 321. are being investigated and one of our meat experts may go out to Turkey shortly to look into the possibilities.

Western Hemisphere

16. Throughout the Americas there is a steady increase in local consumption of meat with no corresponding increase in production. The surplus available for export is therefore steadily shrinking, and it seems probable that in future really substantial quantities can come only from Argentina.

17. Canada.-During some of the war years Canada supplied us with useful quantities of meat and in 1945 sent us as much as 100,000 tons. Owing to the dollar difficulty we stopped buying and the Canadian surplus has been going over the border into the United States, where production has not been equal to local needs. Furchases cannot be resumed in Canada unless the dollar difficulty is overcome, and then only on the basis of a fairly long-term arrangement, since the Canadians could scarcely be expected to close the border into the United States again for a short period.

18.

United States of America.-During the war years we also obtained con- siderable quantities of meat from the United States-an average of 115,000, tons of carcase meat and 91,000 tons of canned meat from 1940 to 1945. .But home production has not been sufficient for domestic needs since rationing was aban- doned. In 1948 the United States bought no less than 190,000 tons carcase weight equivalent in competition with us in South America, all in the form of canned meat. Moreover, dollar difficulties apart, the supply prospects make it unlikely that we shall be able to buy any beef or mutton there for some time. But there will probably be a surplus of pigmeat in the United States in the fairly near future, probably in the autumn, and some supplies even earlier. Out of the $50 million which, at their meeting on 24th March (E.P.C. (49) 9th Meeting, Minute 5, Conclusion 2), the Economic Policy Committee agreed should be spent on food for current consumption, we have bought some 4,500 tons of pork and *20,000 tons of canned beef stew of Mexican origin at a cost of about $10 million.

19. Mexico. When we learned in March 1947 that the United States had prohibited the importation of Mexican cattle for veterinary reasons we imme- diately sent an expert to find out what was the prospect of our purchasing supplies of meat there. He reported favourably, but unfortunately we were pre- vented from completing a contract by the dollar crisis which arose a little later in that year.

Two of my officers paid a second visit to Mexico a few months ago with the Simon Mission in an endeavour to buy the meat under a bilateral agree- ment involving no expenditure of dollars. But the Mexican Government have been dilatory. However, they have now agreed to send over a purchasing mission to ascertain what they could obtain in exchange for meat, and the Chancellor of the Exchequer has personally invited the Mexican Finance Minister to come to London himself. Given favourable conditions, it is believed that quantities of the order of 10 or 20,000 tons could be bought from Mexico in the first year and that this might be built up to 100,000 tons in the course of a few years. Mean- while, as mentioned above, we have bought 20,000 tons of Mexican canned beef stew from the United States Department of Agriculture for distribution on points.

20. Guatemala.-At one time prospects from Guatemala seemed promising and we signed a contract with a local company under which we agreed to take any meat made available for shipment. But the price we have been paying is rela- tively high and quantities disappointingly small. Moreover, the Guatemalans have now put an embargo upon all meat exports and no supplies are being received at present.

21. Nicaragua.-Suggestions have been made that meat is available in Nicaragua. But our enquiries have shown that there are no suitable processing. arrangements and that in any event the surplus of cattle is consumed locally."

22. Pageik 2 Bofor66he war Brazil used to spadas £omf 306000 to 40,000 tons a year, and in one of the war years sent as much as 80,000 tons of carcase meat together with fair supplies of canned meats. There has, however, been a

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virtual prohibition of export except of small quantities of canned meats and frozen offals, for Several fears, as Brazilians cannot now produce enough to satisfy their increased local demands. We have a meat expert stationed in Brazil who is in the closest touch both with Brazilian officials and with the representatives of the exporters, and we are satisfied that if the situation should alter he will not lose any opportunity of getting supplies. There is now some hope that a small surplus of carcase meat, perhaps 10,000 tons, may become available this year.

23. Uruguay.-Uruguay used to send us about 40,000 tons of carcase meat and some canned meat before the war, and maintained fair supplies during the war. Latterly our arrangements with Uruguay have not been very satisfactory as she has tried to move in parallel with Argentina, though never ceasing to profess her friendship for us. Like Argentina, she has seized opportunities of selling meat to continental buyers at higher prices than those at which she had contracted with us, and like Argentina she defaulted on quantities which she undertook to sell to us. She contracted to sell us 34,000 tons in the year to mid-February 1949, and has only delivered 17,000 tons; she has since let us have the rest, but as she might now have been delivering further quantities against a new contract her default means an actual loss of meat to us. The country has suffered from drought, but this does not justify failure to fulfil our contract. In 1948 Uruguay shipped no less than 62,000 tons (carcase weight eqivalent) to other destinations. Discussions have begun in Montevideo in preparation for the negotiation of a contract for further supplies which may amount to 40,000 tons in a year.

24. Paraguay.-Paraguay does not ship carcase meat, but only canned meats, and we purchase from her all that she will sell to us. In 1948 we received nearly 4,300 tons, or just over half her exports.

25. Chile. The only supplies available from Chile come from Patagonia, where before and during the war we used to get about 10,000 tons of carcase meat. The quantity available for export has fallen to about 6,000 tons, mainly owing to increased local consumption, but under our contract with the shippers we purchase the whole of the exportable surplus.

26. Falkland Islands.-The highest exportable surplus from the Falkland Islands so far has been about 800 tons per annum, a quantity which has apparently not attracted sufficient interest to induce private enterprise to set up a freezing plant. I understand, however, that the Colonial Development Corporation now has a project for doing so. Meanwhile we have done all we can to encourage the shipment of sheep on the hoof to the freezing works on the mainland.

27. Elsewhere in South America, and particularly in Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela, we hear from time to time stories about immense possibilities- this is particularly true of Colombia--but no definite proposals have ever been made for developing these sources, apart from the establishment some years ago in Venezuela of a packing plant which has fallen into disuse because of lack of supplies. Venezuela in fact now imports limited quantities of meat.

Southern Commonwealth Countries

28. New Zealand. The export of meat to us from New Zealand has increased substantially since before the war, from about 260,000 tons to 360,000 tons, and under our recent long-term contract, which covers a period of seven years, New Zealand has agreed to take such measures as are necessary to increase the rate of export to us at the end of the seven years by another 50,000 tons. In view of progress so far, we do not feel quite sure that we shall receive the extra quantity, but there is every evidence that all possible efforts will be made.

་

29. Australia.-There is little prospect of additional supplies of meat from Australia during the next year or two, but in the long run she provides an important source for substantial additional imports. We have been urging upon the Australians for several years the need to increase their production, and during the past year the Australian Government have put in hand the preparation of plans for big developments. The Australian Prime Minister reported on the progress of these preparations during his visit in the spring, and it was clear that only very slow progress, had been made. His Government bad approved some minor proposals eosting about £1.5 milion, which should result to the production

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of an extra 10,000 tons of meat annually eight years hence around Wyndham, in the porthern part of Western Australia, but comparatively fitte progress had been made with the preparation of their plans for other areas. Moreover, there appeared to be something of a tendency to reduce the scale of the developments proposed, and the Australian estimate of the extra production which would result ten years hence from all their plans for new areas was little more than 50,000 tons. In addition, however (and both the Australians and I attach great importance to this), at least as much extra exports might obtained from increased production in the settled parts of Australia. On the other hand, Australia's home demands for meat are almost certain to increase steadily with her increasing population.

30. During his visit Mr. Chifley emphasised the need for negotiation of an agreement guaranteeing a market for Australia's meat in the United Kingdom for a really long term (say, 15 years) in order to establish the conditions under which producers, as well as the Commonwealth and State Governments, could give greater impetus to plans for increasing production. With the agreement of the Chancellor of the Exchequer, I therefore informed Mr. Chifley that we were prepared to enter into negotiations for such an agreement, in return for an undertaking by the Australian Government to promote development schemes which offer good prospects of increased supplies of a magnitude to be agreed with us.

I have in mind that we should press for the adoption of plans to increase exports by 50,000 tons annually after five years and by an additional 50,000 tons annually after ten years. Mr. Chifley has arranged for the investi- gations in Australia to be expedited, and I hope that the Australian plans will be available in sufficient detail to provide the basis for the negotiation of the proposed agreement in about three months' time.

Africa

..

31. The Secretary of State for the Colonies has now set up a working party on supplies of meat from the Colonies, among which the African Colonies seem to offer the greatest promise. My Department is represented and we shall co-operate in the inquiry to the full. Over much of Africa production is at present greatly restricted by endemic diseases, and although during the past few years I have made many enquiries, I have so far found very little promise of supplies. If meat could be produced for export in quantity in Africa I have little doubt that we could deal satisfactorily with the restrictions on imports which are at present imposed for disease control purposes. But the standard of living in many parts of Africa is now improving as the result of development schemes of many kinds. In consequence the demand for meat is increasing and in the West African Colonies is already becoming a drain on our canned meat supplies from Australia and New Zealand. Any moderate increase in Africa's production might therefore largely be consumed locally, and it might be a considerable time before we benefited.

32. Sudan. After consultation with officers from the Sudan Government I sent an expert there but, as in the rest of Colonial Africa, there seems little possibility of export except for small quantities in canned form until the disease difficulties have been overcome.

33. Abyssinia.-There have been frequent references to vast possibilities in Abyssinia, but the control of disease appears to be a more difficult problem there than almost anywhere else.

34. Union of South Africa.-As regards South Africa we are repeatedly assured that there is no exportable surplus. Indeed, the Union imports small quantities of canned meats both from Australia and South America.

35. Madagascar.-France is the normal market for meat exported from Madagascar. During the war, when the island was cut off from France, we obtained small consignments from this source, but they amounted to less than 2,000 tons in all. The exportable surplus varies very considerably, but even in a good year is estimated to be no more than 6,000 to 9,000 tons of carcase meat and perhaps 7,000 tons of canned meats. Exports of meat are now rigidly controlled and the bulk of them are again going to France. Prices are high and the meat generally of poor quality. There are prospects that small quantities may continue to find their way from Madagascar to our Colonies in the vicinity366., Mauritius,

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on a trader-tb-der basfs3us reducing to some extent Colotl 3dm & £ß CA Australian supplies, for which we have to provide. We cannot hope for more than this.

A sia

36. There are no facilities anywhere in Asia for processing meat for export so far as we have been able to ascertain; nor are there any likely possibilities of exportable surpluses except, perhaps, a faint chance in India and Pakistan. We are at present investigating suggestions that have been made about the production of beef in Pakistan and of pigmeat in India.

...

Conclusions

I

37. I should be misleading my colleagues if I left them with the impression that there is very much chance of finding alternative sources of supply within, say, five years from now for much of the meat which has come to us from Argentina. The proposed Australian developments, although of great potential importance, are expected to provide only 100,000 tons ten years hence. Even if Argentina sends us under the new Agreement an annual quantity of 400,000 tons, and if home production achieves its target, we shall still need in 1952 over 300,000 tons more than is at present in sight. There is nowhere in the world territory which offers anything like the same prospect of increased supplies as does Argentina. Moreover, costs of production in Argentina are low. A great part of that country is situated in a latitude which is friendly to the continuous growth of the most luscious pasture. Linseed cake and coarse grains are available in the country in large quantities to supplement the grass. Cattle can graze all the year round without shelter. The ports are equipped to freeze, handle, and ship enormous quantities of meat. Vast areas are still only partly used. In this paper I have made scarcely any reference to costs and prices, and in the short term they can almost be ignored. But in the longer run they are of primary significance. For costs and prices determine the volume of our goods which have to go to pay for meat supplies. The more cheaply we can buy our meat, the more will be available in goods (and the resources which produce them) for the satis- faction of other needs. Recently we have been taking only 20 per cent. of the total Argentine production of meat. An increase by 20 per cent. in that production could give us all we need.

Our best hope of sufficient meat lies in that development of our trade with Argentina for which the new Agreement provides. The expansion during the next few years of our exports to the Argentine of engineering and other scarce products which she can no longer afford to buy in the United States could produce more meat for us more quickly than developments, however attractive, in completely new areas.

Ministry of Food,

London, S.W. 1,

6th July, 1949.

J. S.