CAB129-35 — Page 296

ANNEX

Page 296

Office of the High Commissioner for the United Kingdom,

Cape Town.

7th June, 1949.

(Received in C.R.O.-11th June, 1949)

Dr. Malan's speech in Parliament on 11th May on the results of the Prime Ministers' Conference has made a great impression on South Africans. There has been much comment in the press and in Parliament. Its implications have been widely discussed.

2. Three questions above all others demand an answer :---

(1) The correct interpretation of Dr. Malan's intentions for the future.

The nature of the policy of Mr. Strydom and his supporters.

The reaction of the United Party in particular, and of English-speaking South Africans in general, to the coming campaign for the establish- ment of a South African republic.

DR. MALAN

3. From the Prime Minister's speech four main points emerge : (1) South Africa's reaction to recent constitutional developments should be viewed against her place in world affairs. The present position is full of dangers. South Africa is anti-communist; she welcomes the signature of the Atlantic Pact; she could not remain neutral in a war with the Soviet; and if such a war broke out she would be able to present a more united front than had ever been witnessed before in this country.

(2) In view of the dangerous world situation it was most important to avoid creating the impression that the British Commonwealth was disintegrating and was no longer a force in world affairs.

(3) Both sides of the House and all sections of the country agree in desiring that South Africa should remain within the Commonwealth. During the debate Dr. Malan reiterated no less than four times the statement that South Africa would remain in the Commonwealth. (Nationalist members listened in complete silence to these remarks.)

(4) The Crown is not the only or even the most important link binding the Commonwealth together. For those countries with a homogeneous population of British origin it no doubt played an important rôle in promoting unity. For those of mixed origin it is frequently maintained only at the expense of internal unity. (These remarks were received with loud cheers from the Government benches.)

4. Later in the same debate Dr. Malan repeated his election pledge that no steps to establish a republic would be taken in the lifetime of the present Parliament. This Parliament he said has been elected on the colour question. A constitutional change would not be made unless and until the will of the people had been taken, not by an ordinary general election, but "in such a way that a decision is taken on that matter and that matter alone."

5. Three versions are now current of Dr. Malan's plans :-

(1) He will continue to pay lip service to the republican cause. His past demands this. In point of fact he will, however, take no steps to renounce allegiance to the Crown. Now that South Africa's right both to become a republic and to remain within the Commonwealth has become clear for all to see he is satisfied.

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(2) He shares the views of Mr. Strydom and his ultimate aim is the establish- ment of a republic outside the Commonwealth. He hopes to attain the position of Burma, not that of India. He considers, however, that 37ge 296 of 366

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Page pulio fexpression of these views at the Pargsen mome66 would be

impolitic.

(3) His words should be taken at their face value. His aim is a republic within the Commonwealth since this is the best form of Government for South Africa.

6 It might reasonably be said that of these three versions the first is the optimistic, the second the cynical, and the third the simple. Mr. Forsyth, the Secretary for External Affairs, is an exponent of the optimistic version. He admits that the views of other Ministers already diverge from those of Dr. Malan, that in the future the gap may widen, and that the policy of these Ministers may prevail. Having made this admission he, however, expressed to me the belief that Dr. Malan himself has at present no intention of taking serious steps to establish a republican form of Government. It appears that Dr. Malan, during the return journey from London, remarked to Forsyth that nations were in many ways like people, that when they know they can obtain something they are often satisfied with the knowledge alone. "There is all the difference in the world," Dr. Malan continued, "between hoping that one might obtain a republic and knowing that a republic can be obtained. Forsyth's remarks are very interesting, but per- sonally I take them with great reserve, though I realise that few Nationalists will incur a serious risk of loss of office in order to gain the republic.

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7. In direct opposition to this version is that of General Smuts. He believes that Dr. Malan's ultimate aim is that of Mr. Strydom. Both, he told me, desire the destruction of the British connection and the ultimate establishment of a State completely severed from the British Commonwealth or, as he put it, "a secessionist republic. Dr. Malan is clever enough to realise that he must advance towards his goal step by step and in doing so must not reveal the nature of that goal. The fanatical enthusiasm of Strydom's followers and his own violent and emo- tional nature preclude the Transvaal leader from following a similar course.

8. The cynical version may possibly be true. Dr. Malan may be a South African Janus. In the past, Nationalists have practised deceit with some success. For example, all through the debates of 1910 leading up to the establishment of the Union no word was spoken of a republic. Yet within three years General Hertzog and his followers were proclaiming its merits from every platform on the Platteland. On the other hand, times have changed. Dr. Malan and his associates may be unwilling to take effective steps to avert the "black danger yet they live in daily dread of it in a manner unknown to white South Africans

of 1913.

""

9. The third and the simplest version is that Dr. Malan means what he says. This point of view is ably explained in a leading article in the 6th May issue of Die Burger. Notable points in this article are an unusual expression of sym- pathy for the point of view of English-speaking South Africans; the affirmation of a wish to remain in the Commonwealth as a point of agreement between the two main parties; and a statement that the primary aim of the Nationalist Party is not a republic but " an internally united nation." This statement is supported by quotations not from Afrikaans or Dutch authors but from John Stuart Mili. (Had he lived in modern South Africa he would have been denounced as a liberal of the deepest dye!) If the editor means what he writes, his aim is a united people and, I need hardly add, these words mean a united white population. The primary purpose of that united white population will be the maintenance of its supremacy in South Africa. Party disagreements will of course continue, but they will not be serious enough to weaken a united front against any threat to the white man's rule. The writer sees the way to the necessary degree of agreement in a compromise on that constitutional issue which now causes too sharp a division between the two sections of white South Africans. No longer, he argues, need white South Africa choose between Commonwealth membership with the common allegiance on the one hand and a republic severed from the Commonwealth on the other. Hence the tendency of the Nationalist press to emphasise the importance of the 1949 conference and to place it on a level with that of 1926. Following the decisions of that conference, Die Burger argues, Afrikaners may be pleased by the establishment of a republic and British sentiment appeased by the retention of Commonwealth tre66 Thus, this year's conferencepaneng dhe ra x fo a united

nation.

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MR. STRYDOM

the leader of the

Page 298onalists,

Transvaal

Page 298. 10. During the debate Mr. Strydom, made an important speech defining his own attitude towards the constitutional issue. He said that the ultimate goal of the Nationalist Party had always been and still was a republic separated from the British Crown and Commonwealth. It had, however, always been recognised that this could only be brought about with the support of a safe majority in the country and that it might therefore be necessary to proceed gradually, like Mr. de Valera. The importance of Dr. Malan's achievement in London was that he had shown that it was possible to get a republic which, while retaining its association with the Commonwealth, will no longer owe allegiance to the Crown;" this would have a great psychological effect on English-speaking people who had hitherto been opposed to a republic on the assumption that it would involve entirely severing connection with the British Commonwealth.

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11. The two Nationalist newspapers of importance are, in the Cape Province Die Burger, and in the Transvaal Die Transvaler. The editor of the second wrote on 12th May, "South Africa will pass step by step to a republican form of Government; and a republic which remains as yet a member of the Commonwealth can be regarded as a step towards the ideal." There can be no doubt that Mr. Strydom and the editor do not share the views expressed by Dr. Malan during his speech in Parliament. For them a degree of national agreement as the primary aim of the party and a republic within the Commonwealth as the form of government best suited to South African conditions mean nothing. To Mr. Strydom and to Die Transvaler the virtue of a republic within the Common- wealth is not its intrinsic merits but its power of reassuring English-speaking opinion. Once South Africans of British origin have discovered that their interests do not suffer in a republic within the Commonwealth the final step may be taken. Mr. Strydom, in short, made it clear that he regarded a republic within the Commonwealth merely as a step towards the achievement of the ultimate ideal of a republic separated from the Commonwealth; and that for tactical reasons he considers it advisable to snap the links successively, first getting rid of the Crown as a preliminary to severing all connection with the Commonwealth.

THE UNITED PARTY

12. General Smuts' views are perfectly clear. In his reply to Dr. Malan in Parliament he retracted none of the arguments advanced by him against the admission of a republican India into the Commonwealth. He accepted, however, the decision of the Prime Ministers without complaint or reservation. He went on to say that in his view the Statute of Westminster was based on two ideas. One was the free association of Commonwealth nations and the other the common allegiance to the Crown. Dr. Malan had said that the Commonwealth could not be a powerful factor in world politics unless it developed and changed to meet changing circumstances. General Smuts maintained that to play its full part in the world, to avoid degeneration into a mere symbolic association of States, the acceptance of both ideas is required. The cause of national unity would be best served if the establishment of a South African republic were not raised. Both Dr. Malan and Mr. Havenga promised this for the life of the present Parliament (which, according to Die Burger, will "probably be at least four years"), but would go no farther.

13. General Smuts will fight the establishment of a republic, whether in or out of the Commonwealth. His views are clear, but those of his followers, both in and out of Parliament, are, as usual, muddled.

14.

If English-speaking South Africans would strongly, with one voice and without reservation, oppose a change to republicanism they might well succeed. Unfortunately they lack the political leaders of 1909 and even the editors of 1929. Mention with approval of a republic within the Commonwealth was made in the Forum, the paper representing the views of Mr. Hofmeyr, during the war. This year the Cape Times and the Cape Argus do not declare that a republic is of itself an unsuitable form of Government for South Africa, but only that the establishment by the Nationalist Party of a republic is undesirable. Nationalist appeals to unity against non-Europeans are crude but may be

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effective. Page 29m6that a republic within theagmanfathбis a consti- tutional form now accepted, in fact welcomed, by the United Kingdom herself will be used and, in this country, will be plausible. Some members of the public will feel that denial of allegiance to the Crown will affect neither their pockets nor their security. Some members of Parliament will hope to come back into office on the issue of a republic to remain permanently within the Commonwealth. When Hertzog left the South African Party in 1912 Botha joined with Smart and the Unionists. When Malan left the Nationalist Party in 1933 Hertzog joined with Smuts and the South African Party. When Strydom leaves the Reunited Nationalist Party, Malan, these Opposition members hope, will join with Smuts and the United Party. Fear of the Native and fear of being in a permanent minority will both urge English-speaking South Africans to com- promise and to accept a republic within the Commonwealth. On the other hand, opinion may rally against a republic, and as the shoe begins to pinch after the effects of import control are felt, the prestige and the popularity of the Govern- ment may wane, and with that waning may come a greater determination to resist constitutional change.

CONCLUSION

15. No Englishman should state confidently that he knows the mind of an Afrikaner. Yet he can guess. My own guess, given with some hesitation, is that Dr. Malan means what he says. For two reasons I would choose the simplest of the three versions of his plans mentioned in paragraph 5.

16. First, Dr. Malan is, whether rightly or wrongly, convinced that there is a

"black danger," that Communists are very active and very successful among South Africa's non-Europeans. Some time ago I was able to see the minutes of a meeting of the Executive Committee of the Broederbond. In this, Transvaal members maintained that the first aim of the society should be the eradication from South Africa of all things British. Dr. Donges, expressing the Cape Province point of view, remarked that the primary aim should rather be the maintenance of white supremacy. The difference is one of emphasis, but it is important.

17. Secondly, Dr. Malan's visit to London has made a great impression upon him. When he declares that South Africa is now free to establish a republic his opponents, with some reason, accuse him of setting up an Aunt Sally and then knocking it down. Yet to remain in South Africa and read of decisions in London is one thing. To see a Commonwealth Conference at work is another. My belief is that Dr. Malan's personal experience has broken down something of the veil of suspicion which Nationalist misrepresentation has placed between Great Britain and most Afrikaans-speaking South Africans. If this guess is correct then there is disagreement within the Party; and indeed there are many signs that this is so. Opposition between the view that a republic within the Commonwealth is but an intermediate step and the belief that it is the most desirable of all constitutional forms of Government for South Africa will be one cause. Regional rivalry between the Cape Province on the one hand and the two former republics on the other will be another cause. Personal ill-feeling between rival candidates for the succession to Dr. Malan, notably between Mr. Strydom and Dr. Donges, will be a third.

18. To believe that the Government might change owing to a split down the centre of the Reunited Nationalist Party is more reasonable than to hope that the Afrikaner Party will be the cause of its collapse. Yet the fruits of office are sweet after fifteen years in the wilderness. Nationalist Members of Parliament know the story of the Nationalist movement. Internal dissensions have been the bane of that movement; and Nationalists have long memories. The success obtained by a united front in 1948 was brilliant. There is no need to quarrel now over the next step but one. Later it may become necessary to offer English- speaking South Africans some guarantee as to the nature of the new republic and it may then become impossible to patch up the quarrel, but for the present party members must remain united. The "lunatic fringe," Pirow and the members of the Ossewa Brandwag, are, however, already sniping at Dr. Malan. They say phate habasfsok the cause of the true republic and of in love with England." Followers of Dr. van Rensburg, the O.B. Teader, by doing this while

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still membersPathe Affoffae Party-a party led by Mr. Havenge 300 befs 3foly supported Dr. Malan-illustrate the great part played in Afrikaner politics by personal rivalries. Should public criticism of the Prime Minister spread from extremists without to extremists within the Reunited Nationalist Party the danger of a split in the Government ranks will become serious.

19. Undoubtedly recent developments have brought a republic nearer. Undoubtedly, they have also brought nearer a split in the H.N.P. The prospect of the establishment of a republic within the Commonwealth depends first on the vigour of the opposition from the United Party side in Parliament, and from English-speaking South Africans in the country, and secondly on the development of the relations between the more moderate and the more extreme wing of the ruling Party.

20. I am sending copies of this despatch to other High Commission posts and to the United Kingdom Representative in Dublin.

I have the honour to be,

Sir,

Your most obedient, humble Servant,

E. BARING

High Commissioner.

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