CAB129-33 — Page 123

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Cricwlakes 5/3/49 (Noon)

THIS DOCUMENT IS THE PROPERTY OF HIS BRITANNIC MAJESTY'S GOVERNMENT

TOP SECRET

The circulation of this paper has been strictly limited.

It is issued for the personal use of the Newest

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Copy No.

31

C. P. (49) 52

5TH MARCH, 1949

CABINET

SITUATION IN MALAYA AND HONG KONG

Memorandum by the Secretary of State for the Colonies

With reference to C. M. (48) 80th Conclusions,

Minute 3, it will be of interest to my colleagues to know what steps have been taken to strengthen our position in Hong Kong and Malaya.

HONG KONG

2.

After consultation between the Commanders-in-Chief, Far East, the Governor of Hong Kong and the Chiefs of Staff Committee, the Commanders-in-Chief, Far East, have now prepared a revised assessment of the probable threats and of the forces required to meet them. They share the view of the Governor of Hong Kong that the possible short-term threats to Hong Kong are:-

(a) internal unrest likely to be inspired by the

Communist-dominated Trades Unions;

(76)

(c)

large-scale influx of refugees by land and/or

by sea;

external aggression by guerrilla bands

probably Communist-inspired.

They regard the likelihood of an organised Communist attack on Hong Kong with a view to its rendition, or a full-scale attack supported by Russian specialists, as remote possi- bilities that need not be considered at present.

3.

Threat (a) above might occur at any time with little warning if the Communists thought that it would be to their advantage, and we must therefore be prepared to meet it. The Governor thinks that threats (b) and (c) are less likely to occur than when this question was considered in December. Nevertheless, the threats do exist and, for planning purposes, the Commanders-in-Chief considered that they should be regarded as possible at any time after March, 1949, with probably a month's warning.

4.

Availability of forces.

(i) Royal Navy

Existing Naval forces in the Far East are sufficient to meet the threats under all heads if Page 124f488g separately or simultalages 134 of 488if a crisis arose simultaneously in Hong Kong and

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