CAB11-57-1 — Page 178

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of this Russia was able to mobilize some 175,000 men for operations in Manchuria and North China. There is now through rail communication from Vladivostock to Port Arthur, and it is perhaps only a matter of months before the other portion of the Manchurian Railway, viz., from Harbin to Chita, is completed. The Colonial Defence Committee suggest that this paragraph should be modified on revision in accordance with these facts and with the considerations brought to notice in their Memorandum, No. 264 M, on the strength of the garrison of Hong Kong, in which they pointed out that the local military strength of a possible combination of France and Russia had recently largely increased, and that, assuming that their sea communications were secure, an expeditionary force of at least 10,000 to 15,000 men could be directed against Hong Kong by a combination of France and Russia.

The correct distances from Hong Kong of Saigon, Hanoi, Nagasaki, Vladivostock, and Port Arthur are 910, 540, 1,070, 1,560, and 1,250 miles (nautical) respectively.

14. Page 12, paragraphs 7 and 8.-It might be added that Germany now has about 5,000 men in China including the garrison of Kiao Chao, and that America has 42,000 men at present in the Philippines, the intention being to reduce that number to 24,000 as soon as the state of the islands will permit.

15. Page 12, paragraph 9.-Owing to the recent developments discussed in the Committee's Memorandum, No. 264 M, dated the 25th June, 1901, on the strength of garrison, this paragraph, of which the wording was suggested in the Committee's Remarks, No. 172 R, on the 1897 Defence Scheme, should be recast as follows:

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"It will be seen from the above considerations that Hong Kong might possibly be menaced by a very powerful attack from Japan, or, in the event of a possible combination of France and Russia, by an expeditionary force of at least 10,000 to 15,000 men, numbers which are likely to be increased in the near future when Russian land communications have been perfected, and when the facilities for maritime transport in the China seas have been developed. An attack of this nature on a large scale cannot, however, be delivered so long as Ilis Majesty's navy maintains sea supremacy; and the Admiralty have accepted the responsibility of protecting all British territory abroad against organized invasion from the sea.

"It is recognized, however, that His Majesty's ships, engaged in hunting out and bringing to action the enemy's squadrons, might not be in a position to prevent an attempted coup de main on Hong Kong by a small number of vessels, including, possibly, transports conveying troops. But it is improbable that a raiding attack would be made by more than a few ships, nor could it be of any permanent effect unless troops could be landed, while in no case could a large number of men be conveyed to Hong Kong without such arrangements and preparation as would bring the operations under the category of those which could with certainty be dealt with by the

navy.

"It is to render Hong Kong secure against raiding attack of the nature indicated that the fixed defences and garrison have been provided; and, for purposes of calculation, the scale of raiding attack, which it is the object of these defences to render impracticable, may conveniently be assumed as one delivered by not more than six or eight armoured vessels, accompanied by two or three armed transports, conveying in all a maximum landing force of 4,000 men.'

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16. Pages 13 to 15.-Some re-arrangement would improve the clearness of this part of the Defence Scheme.

The third sub-paragraph of paragraph 14 on page 14 should be added to paragraph 12. The first and second sub-paragraphs might be omitted, as they deal with matters of detail belonging more properly to Chapter II (C) (i). To paragraph 15 might be added a short statement of the passes and roads across the chain of hills in question, on the lines of the description at the end of paragraph 11, page 13. The heading at the top of page 15, and also paragraph 18 might be omitted as superfluous. The subject-matter of paragraph 19 might be transferred to Chapter II (D) (i), and paragraphs 20 and 21 should be inserted after paragraph 16.

17. Page 13, paragraphs 11 et seq.-The descriptions of local topography in the Hong Kong Defence Scheme adequately fulfil the purpose of placing the senior officers responsible for the conduct of the defence in possession of the broad outlines of the military geography of the Colony, but the Colonial Defence Committee think it desirable that a separate handbook should be prepared for the use of regimental officers, giving full particulars of all roads, passes, positions, camping grounds, landing places, streams, bridges, &c., in the island of Hong Kong and adjacent mainland. Copies of such a handbook, with a good tactical map, should be available for issue to all company officers on mobilization.

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