CAB11-57-17 — Page 12

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CHAPTER I (A).

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(d.) The war of 1904-5, together with her extended alliance with Britain, has left Japan in the position of facile princeps both on land and sea in the Far East. Her fleet is powerful and increasing and is believed to be efficient and up to

date in every way.

The alliance with Japan has enabled the British Government to reduce its fleet

in far Eastern waters to a small cruiser squadron.

Japan has a standing army of 19 Divisions complete and fit for service in every detail, a division on war strength is about 20,000 men. With the addition of certain reserve brigades, and of her national army, she could probably place in the field 1,116,000 men.

Sasebo, a naval station, where the largest docks in Japan are to be found, is about 1,100 miles from Hong Kong, and Kure, an important arsenal on the inland sea, is distant a further 200 miles; but Kelung, a fortified port in Formosa, is only 500 miles from Hong Kong, and the Pescadores Islands, which are daily growing in importance as a Japanese naval station, are little over 300 miles away.

The alliance leaves Hong Kong safe from any fear of hostile intentions on the

part of Japan until August 1915.

(e.) The strength of the United States of America garrison in the Philippines is about 12,000 regular troops, 1,300 marines, 5,000 Philippine Scouts, offi- cered by Americans, and 4,600 Philippine Constabulary, officered by Americans and Philippinos.

The present strength of the United States of America navy in the Pacific is-

1 battleship.

11 first class cruisers.

16 destroyers.

2 torpedo boats.

4 submarines.

Besides about 40 other war vessels of lesser importance.

Great progress has been made with the naval dockyard at Cavite.

A large floating dry dock capable of lifting 16,000 tons in four hours has been

placed at Subig Bay.

The fortifications at the entrance to Manila Bay and Subig Bay are being rapidly completed, the strained relations between the United States of America and Japan over the immigration question has lent great stimulus to the work.

When these fortifications are finished both these harbours will be very

strongly protected with heavy guns.

Subig Bay will be the principal naval base in the Philippine Islands. It is

600 miles from Hong Kong.

The opening of the Panama Canal will be of immense strategic importance to

the United States of America Navy.

(f.) The ability of the Chinese to act on the offensive may, for the present, be taken as practically nil; however, an army formed under modern conditions is now in process of being created, of which six divisions are quite complete and four more divisions nearly complete. There are in addition to these twenty-two mixed brigades in existence in various parts of China which form the nucleii of potential divisions. It is proposed to raise the army to the strength of thirty-seven divisions, including a division of guards. All the best of these troops are at present in North China, but there is a

mixed brigade at Canton and another at Foochow

The Pekin-Hankow railway is completed and the 500 miles of line between Canton and Hankow is now under construction-of these the 50 miles nearest Canton are completed and being worked. The railway between Kowloon and Canton (120 miles long) will probably be finished within the next year.

When these lines are completed the concentration of Chinese troops near Hong Kong will be greatly facilitated.

3. No Power, except Japan or the United States of America, or China, is in a position to direct large expeditionary forces against Hong Kong.

With Japan we are safe until 1915; it is unlikely that public opinion would ever permit a war between Great Britain and the United States of America; and China, for the present, is not worth consideration.

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