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CHAPTER I (A).

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(d.) The war of 1904-5, together with her extended alliance with Britain, has left Japan in the position of facile princeps both on land and sea in the Far East. Her fleet is powerful and increasing and is believed to be efficient and up to

date in every way.

The alliance with Japan has enabled the British Government to reduce its fleet

in far eastern waters to a small cruiser squadron.

Japan has a standing army of 19 Divisions complete and fit for service in every detail (a division on war strength is about 20,000 men). | Behind these are a million men in the first and second reserves and yet another million trained men of the National Army and Conscript Reserves. Nagasaki is 1,050 miles from Hong Kong, but Formosa, which is Japanese

territory, is 350 miles distant.

The Japanese are very busy in the Pescadores, and a very strong naval base may be expected to appear there in the near future. Makung is only 317 miles from Hong Hong.

The alliance leaves Hong Kong safe from any fear of hostile intentions on the

part of Japan until August 1915.

(e.) The strength of the United States of America garrison in the Philippines is about 12,000 regular troops, 1,300 marines, 5,000 Philippine Scouts, offi- cered by Americans, and 6,500 Philippine Constabulary, officered by Americans and Philippinos.

The present strength of the United States of America navy in the Pacific is—

1 battleship.

11 first class cruisers.

16 destroyers.

2 torpedo boats.

4 submarines.

Besides about 40 other war vessels of lesser importance.

Great progress has been made with the naval dockyard at Cavite.

A large floating dry dock capable of lifting 16,000 tons in four hours has been

placed at Subig Bay.

The fortifications at the entrance to Manila Bay and Subig Bay are being rapidly completed, the strained relations between the United States of America and Japan over the immigration question has lent great stimulus to the work.

When these fortifications are finished both these harbours will be very

strongly protected with heavy guns.

Subig Bay will be the principal naval base in the Philippine Islands. It is

600 miles from Hong Kong.

The opening of the Panama Canal will be of immense strategic importance to

the United States of America Navy.

(f.) The ability of the Chinese to act on the offensive may, for the present, be taken as practically nil; however, an army formed under modern conditions is now in process of being created, of which eight divisions are complete and portions of ten other divisions are in existence in various parts of the

country.

Most of these troops are at present in North China, but there is one division

in Fu-kien and part of a division at Canton.

The Pekin-Hankow railway is completed and the 500 miles of line between Canton and Hankow is now under construction-of these the 45 miles nearest Canton are completed and being worked. The railway between Kowloon and Canton (120 miles long) will probably be finished within the next two years.

When these lines are completed the concentration of Chinese troops near Hong Kong will be greatly facilitated.

3. No Power, except Japan-or the United States of America, or China, is in a position to direct large expeditionary forces against Hong Kong.

With Japan we are safe until 1915; it is unlikely that public opinion would ever permit a war between Great Britain and the United States of America; and China, for the present, is not worth consideration.

Therefore, unless any radical change takes place in the political situation, Hong Kong may be considered reasonably safe until 1915.

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