ENG-2001 — Page 91

THE ECONOMY

quarter, as the impact of the September 11 incidents filtered through. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison, total exports of goods shrank by 2.4 per cent and 2.8 per cent respectively in real terms in the first two quarters of 2001, and rose again by 1.5 per cent in the third quarter, before coming down again by 6.4 per cent in the fourth quarter.

Within total exports of goods, re-exports decreased by 2.0 per cent in real terms in 2001, also sharply down from the surge of 18.5 per cent in 2000. Domestic exports plummeted much more, by 11.0 per cent in real terms in 2001, representing the largest annual fall ever since the respective statistical series was compiled in 1962. This was also sharply reversed from the increase of 7.5 per cent in 2000.

Imports of goods likewise shrank, by 2.3 per cent in real terms in 2001, distinctly worsened from the 18.1 per cent growth in 2000. Moreover, the year-on-year growth slackened visibly over the course of the year, from 5.3 per cent in real terms in the first quarter to -0.7 per cent, -3.4 per cent and -9.1 per cent respectively in the second to fourth quarters. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison, imports of goods contracted by 1.2 per cent and 3.7 per cent respectively in real terms in the first two quarters of 2001, followed by a brief rebound to a 2.5 per cent rise in the third quarter and then a relapse to an 8.0 per cent drop in the fourth quarter. This setback mirrored the downturn in both the re-export trade and imports for local use (Chart 8).

Chart 8

Hong Kong's visible trade (year-on-year rate of change in real terms)

Per cent

30

Re-exports

20

Imports of goods

10

0

-10

-20

Total exports of goods

Domestic exports

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Merchandise export and import trades both fell visibly in 1998 and 2001, being adversely affected by the Asian financial crisis and the global economic downturn in these two years.

As the value of total exports of goods fell slightly faster than the value of imports of goods, the visible trade deficit widened somewhat, to $87.2 billion or 5.6 per cent of the value of imports of goods in 2001, from $85.3 billion or 5.1 per cent in 2000.

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