ENG-1992 — Page 294

PORT DEVELOPMENT

The review sought to:

* update PADS port cargo and commodity forecasts to 2006 and to extrapolate these to

2011;

* reassess the economics of mid-stream operations;

re-examine the port-mix scenario recommended by PADS;

determine long-term requirements for typhoon shelters, shipyards, container back-up and river-trade facilities; and

* include the revised forecasts in a total programme for different types of physical

facilities.

The review found that between 1980 and 1990 total port traffic grew by 12.5 per cent

a year.

In forecasting future growth the review took into account several key factors, including: developments in Hong Kong; developments in China; the world economic outlook; potential competition from regional ports; containerisation trends; likely impact of port charges on traffic growth; and the outlook for transhipment traffic.

The review forecast that the number of ocean-going vessels calling at Hong Kong would increase from 20 363 in 1990 to 33 000 a year by 2006. The number of fully cellular container ships would rise from 8 390 to 21 000 in the same period.

The port development plan and programme will be reviewed regularly to ensure that it remains relevant to Hong Kong's needs and that it can be achieved within the required time.

Through the refinement of periodic strategy reviews and the regular monitoring of the progress and updating of the port development plan and programme, the competitive advantage of Hong Kong can be assured well into the 21st century.

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