ENG-1991 — Page 30

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A COMPLETELY NEW PORT

This prospect brings home the fact that, as harbour-cities go, Hong Kong is still a very young one. So too is Singapore, which like Hong Kong derives great advantage from its location in a fast-developing region.

With Singapore, Hong Kong pursues a friendly rivalry, the two cities jostling for the lead position as the world's busiest container port. After they had both overtaken New York and Rotterdam in the world ratings, Hong Kong was in the lead for three years. Now Singapore is just ahead. We can expect the positions to change yet again, for they result from relatively small shifts in trading patterns.

In assessing Hong Kong's durability as an entrepôt, it is worth bearing in mind that the greatest harbour cities, especially those so placed as to be gateways to vast continental hinterlands, can enjoy very long runs indeed. A good example is the city that many people still think of as Constantinople - today's Istanbul, the Byzantium of ancient history which now has 2 500 years of harbour development (and quite a few changes of sovereignty) under its belt. Founded originally as a small colony, it's an old, old city today; but one still capable of stirring itself and displaying a trick or two, like throwing bridges across the Bosporus.

The geographical location in the Eastern Mediterranean which proved so valuable to Constantinople in its most glorious era (which lasted about half a millenium) was remarkably similar in its essentials to the geographical advantages which Hong Kong enjoys today in the Western Pacific. This historical parallel may be an unsure basis for a prediction. But it does indicate the sort of time-scale that one has to take into account.

So much for distant prospects. The next fifty years are a sufficient span, for within it the 'completely new port' will become fully and unmistakably identifiable as just that. And at some point in this period we should not be surprised if a much-travelled visitor looks around what will then be a whole new harbour in the west and declares it to be 'the finest sight in Asia.'

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