ENG-1989 — Page 17

A VISION OF THE FUTURE

slightly lower forecast, Hong Kong should still enjoy a healthy level of growth by world standards.

On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong will become a Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China. That is a fact that we must face, and face in a clear-headed way. Hong Kong is linked to China but, in another important sense, separate from it. That will continue to be the case in the future, under the concept of 'one country, two systems?. We have our own laws and freedoms which we cherish. They must not be eroded. Equally, we should use them with a sense of responsibility and self-restraint. For many years our community has recognised the importance of not becoming directly involved in China's often complicated domestic politics. At the same time, given both the economic and political realities, there is every reason to expand our already close economic links with the mainland. We can strengthen the basis of our special future political status by the contribution that we make to the modernisation of the Chinese economy and by the access to world markets, advanced technology and expertise that we can provide for China.

The Chinese Government has given repeated assurances that its policy towards Hong Kong has not changed. It has also stressed that economic reform and openness to the outside world remain fundamental priorities. Both of these are important and welcome messages for Hong Kong. We for our part have made it clear to the Chinese Government that action is needed to restore confidence in the arrangements for Hong Kong's future. We need to restore mutual trust as the necessary cornerstone for the unprecedented political experiment that will begin in 1997, the foundations for which must be laid securely in the next eight years.

Emigration

In the meantime, it is clear that more Hong Kong people now feel a need to hedge their bets or seek insurance policies overseas. The government predicted earlier this year that 42 000 people would leave Hong Kong in 1989. This estimate remains valid. But emigration levels are likely to be higher in the next few years. As always, precisely how many will leave depends not only on events here and in China but also on the immigration policies of the countries that people wish to go to.

I have said many times that the government will never prevent people from leaving Hong Kong. I repeat that now. I fully understand the dilemma that many families face in deciding whether to go or to stay, but I cannot pretend that I like seeing so many skilled and talented people leaving Hong Kong. Not only does Hong Kong need them, but I am also well aware that many of them do not really want to go. We all know of families who would prefer to stay in Hong Kong but who have been uprooted and even separated for long periods. I hope that many of them will return to Hong Kong and contribute to its future once they have obtained the security they are seeking.

No matter how many people emigrate, the bulk of the population of Hong Kong - by then some six million people – will still be here in 1997 and afterwards. These are the people for whom we must build a future. They are Hong Kong's future. Many of them will step readily into the gaps left by emigrants. Others will need more time, training or experience before they can do so. But, with an expanding and ever more sophisticated economy, it may prove difficult to fill all the gaps from within Hong Kong. Increased levels of emigra- tion will almost certainly mean that we will need to import more skills and experience from outside the territory, at least until our efforts to develop our own resources take effect.

The first potential source of these skills is of course our former residents, the people who already know Hong Kong. The government is already recruiting from the ethnic Chinese

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