ENG-1976 — Page 19

2

TWO DECADES OF ECONOMIC ACHIEVEMENT

Hong Kong's natural harbour and geographic position had made it a point of call on major shipping routes, and its geographic position and political stability contributed to the development of communications by air. The entrepot trade and a commercial and financial framework already existed to support the growing trade in Hong Kong manufactured goods. And finally the government provided the right sort of environ- ment to permit the interplay of market forces. Contributors to the economy were allowed to seek to maximise their returns, and those who succeeded were allowed to retain them. But, symmetrically, there was no attempt to reverse the consequences of mistakes or commercial misfortunes.

All these factors and forces brought about what Her Majesty the Queen, during her 1975 visit, described as 'the remarkable phenomenon which is modern Hong Kong'. To appreciate how it happened, it is necessary to look more closely at the population explosion, the financial and commercial background, the role of the public sector, and the growth in trade and in the Gross Domestic Product.

Population

The most dramatic changes in Hong Kong's population took place in the late forties and the early fifties. Much of the detail is not available because the first post- war census did not take place until 1961. But, from estimates of mid-year population, it is possible to see how the period of early rapid growth was replaced by lower rates of increase. In the five years 1951-6, the population grew from an estimated 2.0 million to 2.6 million-an average annual growth rate of 5.3 per cent. This average annual rate steadily declined to 3.9 per cent in the next five years and to 1.6 per cent in 1971-6.

Behind these decreasing population growth rates, the structure of the popula- tion underwent marked changes. An indication of these can first be seen in the birth rate statistics. Chart A (between pages 10 and 11) shows a rapid rise in the birth rate, which reached a peak in the second half of the fifties and then declined.

In 1961 the age structure of the population appears (Chart B) as if two unrelated pyramids had been superimposed on each other. There is a narrow band aged 15-20 which is a result of post-war immigrants who arrived without children. Above it is a pyramid unsymmetrically heavy in males as a result of immigration; and below it a disproportionately wide base aged 0-15 years reflecting the high birth rates in the fifties associated with the immigration.

By 1971, as shown in Chart C, the lower birth rates seen in the previous decade- especially in the second half-had produced a narrower base, representing an absolute decline in the number of infants. This trend has continued.

Growth of Labour Force

The spasmodic inflows of mostly young people from outside Hong Kong and the high birth rate of the 1950s have echoed and will continue to echo their way through the social and economic structure of Hong Kong.