ENG-1959 — Page 16

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numbers of Chinese immigrants, is becoming still more difficult as adjacent south-east Asian countries, judging by recent events, become more concerned with the problems presented by the Chinese already in their midst.

Prior to 1953, therefore, it was by no means as apparent as it is now that the third solution-integration--was the only possible one. Moreover, at roughly the time when this solution began for the first time to appear inevitable, the imposition of embargoes on trade with China severely disrupted the economy of the Colony; and there arose real doubts as to whether Hong Kong would be able to afford the cost of providing the social services required, even if the will and the means were otherwise there. There was also a not unnatural feeling that this was a problem for the whole free world, and not for Hong Kong alone. All these fears and doubts, serious though they were, were nevertheless brushed aside after the events of Christmas Day, 1953, and the Colony set itself firmly upon the new course of merging the new-comers and their children into the fabric of Hong Kong society.

Since then, much has been done and much remains to be done. The basic problem, however, remains unchanged; for the pressure of a still-expanding population remains at the root of all Hong Kong problems. To reiterate and bring up to date these basic figures, the population when the war ended in 1945 was estimated at 600,000; by the end of 1946 it had risen to an estimated 1,600,000; by the end of 1949 to an estimated 1,860,000; by the end of 1956 to an estimated 2,500,000; and now, at the end of 1959, the estimate stands at 2,919,000 or roughly a two-fold increase in the past 13 years. The estimated increase during the course of the year 1959 was 113,000; of which 84,329 represents natural increase. A stable or reasonably stable population is clearly not yet in sight; for, even if immigration could be wholly checked, the annual rate of natural increase would still stand at approxi- mately 3%, and this figure must be taken as the irreducible rate at which Hong Kong will grow in the immediate future.

Against this background, the reader will ask whether a sufficient effort has been made to provide adequately for the physical and social needs of all these people, and whether the results achieved are sufficient to produce a net improvement? Or is Hong Kong, as many must fear, losing the race in spite of her efforts? Is she