October 1, 1906.|
especial object of these amenities, the main object of which is to exclude absolutely British trade and British residents from the entire country. It is entirely hopeless to search in any Japanese establishment for a single article of British trade more valuable than a bottle of white pepper or a jar of table salt. That the absence is not due to any lack of demand is shown in the curious fact that there is still a diminishing supply to be found in the few Chinese mercantile establishments which contrive to subsist in spite of official obstruction and official preferences of every description. The Chinese traders complain that not only do their Japanese competitors on board Japanese steamers get the preference in reduced freights, sometimes amounting to fifty per cent. but that their cargo is always subjected to detention and rough usage, and that on arrival it is at the hands of the Customs subjected to inquisitorial search and delay even where the original cases are perfectly untouched, while similar package shipped by Japanese are perfectly fre. If it be difficult for an Englishman to obtain redress in a flagrant case of abuse, it is naturally utterly hopeless for a Chinaman to look for any justice, and his officials having learnt the utter futility of protest have by force learned the lesson of submission openly, though in private they do not scruple to express their opinions.
It is, of course, suggested that to a certain extent and at the beginning a part of the exclusion from Korea of British trade was due to the apathy of the British merchants in China, who permitted the carrying trade early to fall into Japanese hands, but this is not sufficient to account for the present exclusion from the entire peninsula of British commerce which has been brought about of deliberate intention and in pursuance of a deeply laid plot. Not to render the present article too long, we propose to return to its financial aspect later.
CHINA'S INEFFECTUAL ARMY REFORM.
(Daily Press, 25th September.) The London Daily Telegraph, following the lead of the German Post, is evidently satisfied that China's new army will prove a serious handful for the first Power that engages it in battle. The article, reproduce elsewhere, bears indications of being well informed, and is noteworthy because its estimate is so different to that generally adopted by observers on the spot. It will
F
CHINA OVERLAND TRADE REPORT. per cent. of her enormous population can be relied upon to look the foreigner in the eyes;" s'ill, that would mean a total of seven millions of found to be between the ages of twenty-two men in the prime of life (which the writer has and thirty-six, for military purposes), and this would easily allow of three years' "banner and nine years' reserve service. Of course, in furnishing information regarding such usually rather "over the mercantile head matter," the ordinary native, however well in- formed, is rather at a loss; but even if he errs in detail the writer is convinoed that he has got hold of the main lines of the new military machine which in nine years' time could give China 1,350,000 splendid troops !”
we
8
This sort of opinion seems to be growing more and more prevalent; and it is only reasonable that we should reconsider the position with a view to noting if there be any newer information that should modify our previous scepticism. Even though are promised another decade before the Chinese army censes to be a neglig. ible quantity, we cannot afford to ignore it if a real change is likely to have then taken place. Reviewing the various references of the kind to which we have referred, it is not easy to see what has happened in the meantime to inspire then. The yellow peril has not become appreciably yellower. There are two Viceregal Armies, and an imposing lot of native volunteers at Shanghai, but we are still a long way from bebolding a national army. The unity necessary is as much lacking as ever it was. The boycott last year was to have proved the existence of this national spirit. The evidence cannot be said to have been overwhelmingly convincing. And it needs even better organization to make an army. There is no evidence that the Chinese hereditary contempt for soldiers and soldiering has given way to the fighting instinct; and we leave it to Viceroy YUAN to say if he has succeeded altogether in rooting out the ideas and the policy which militate against his ambition to produce a force that is brave, honest, and full of esprit de corps. If Dr. MORRISON is to be trusted, HIS EXCELLENCY must acknowledge that even his success, based on much care and labour, has been only partial. Deserters and squeezers are still heard of, in numbers too great to be overlooked. It is further alleged that last year's ma ceuvres in the north, which evoked such au outburst of praise, were on 1
a par with the infants' drill at a Kindergarten prize- giving entertainment, the result of many rehearsals. Real precision and disciplin as understood by the European soldier were undreamt of. Doubtless the armament has improved, and the forthcoming manoeuvres will afford an opportunity for the naturally curious foreigner to satisfy himself as to We hope that
be remembered that the last manoeuvres gave rise to a chorus of admiration, in the
corres-
midst of which our Tientsin pondent's less enthusiastic comments were practically drowned, The
what has been going on. pproaching autumn manœuvres are already drawing particular attention to the question, with which "W. F." in the Pall Mall Gazette dealt last month somewhat bewilderingly. Those who studied his figures and deduc- tions as reproduced the other day in our columns will remember that "W. F.", who formerly disbelieved in China's power to raise an effective national army, had changed his mind. He said:
"Tue item of rifles and ammunition would mean that a minimum expenditure of, say, £3,500,000 would have to be met during and at the completion of their manufacture. There were n such sums available, of course; hence the writer has hitherto maintained that, so far
• from Chin's new army being on the road to realise the "Yellow P-rit" romance, about nine divisions, say 90,000 efficients, was its limit; and even to raise these she has had to debase her coinage. There is little dout as to her possessing the materi! both in quality and quantity, even if -as is probable-less than 2
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conquerable; we should have to reflect on its recent failure tɔ justify its reputation'; and we would be unable to forget that the same causes and reasons exist also in China and apply equally to any army that w can produce. at present imagine China as likely to
THE OBSERVATORY ENQUIRY.
The
are anxious the
(Daily Press, 26th September.) An official advertisement appearing else. where in this issue makes us fear that there exists more misconception than we believed possible, in the matter of the enquiry which we asked for, and which His Excellency the GOVERNOR 80 promptly ordered. Certainly, so far as our point of view was concerned, the position was misunderstood by the members of the Legislative Council, including even His EXCELLENCY. public did not and does not desire a scapegoat. The public temper under such trying circumstances has been really admir able, and we deprecate any suggestion that the officials of the Observatory are on their trial, to be either convicted or exonerated. It is the system which we want to be carefully investigated, and there are only two points which we committee of enquiry should not overlook. We consider that any suggestions of carelessness or inability would be quite out of place; and are convinced that the ||Observatory is in the possession of apparatus and men equally good and satisfactory. What we are afraid of is what we have often heard suggested, long before the unfortunate happenings of the 18th inst. Is it true that the Hongkong Observatory is conducted on the principle of "glorious isolation," prefering to be self.con. taine and to rely on a purely Colonial group of data-collecting material? That is the one important question to which we hope the investigating committee will obtain for us a reassuring answer. The other, nearly as important, is this: is it true that the Observatory could increase its practical, utilitarian usefulness by paying less attention to academic branches of kindred science? When in the spring of 1877 some ship. masters and the manager of the P. & O. Co. first voiced the demand for this institution, the object was the greater safety and security of shipping and trade. The demand for astronomical observations was a subsequent and super-added fad, harmless if it could be relegated to its proper, secondary place. Weather and tides are its real business: star-gazing is more of a luxury. We need say no more about the second question we have proposed.
it will not be said again, as was said of the accounts of last year's manoeuvres, "that much of this exaggerated eulogy was due to the exceptionally hospitable treatment which one and all received from the hands of His Excellency YUAN. There was what the late Poet Laureate calls a vinous mist' between the onlookers and the most delicate of the manœuvres, and it is difficult to see clearly through such a medium. It was allowed on all sides that great strategy was shown on the occasion, and that it bad its full effect on the correspondents was evident from their reports. It is, moreover, conceded that there is, in the breezy autuma atmos
the northern provinces, an phere of exhilaration which can only be likened to the effect of dry champagne." With, how ever, the best of reasons for reporting & really notable Chinese military progress, we should still have to remember that Russia had a paper army of illimitable force, un
With regard to the first, we are at present under the impression that the answer will have to be in the affirmative. It is, there- fore, desirable in the interest of the public that the investigating committee should pay particular attention to this point. It is unlikely that any of its members will need to be told of the importance of full co-operation between meteorological stations. Assuming aptitude and fitness, there can be nothing which makes the co-operation of the meteorologists of Manila undesirable. At present warnings from Manila come very frequently, but they come in a round- about way, via the American Consulate. Some people entertain the belief that the Hongkong Observatory does not know of these warnings until its officials see them in the Press. Let it be clearly understood that the system, and not the Observatory officials, is on trial. After such a humbling experience as the typhoon of last week, very few people can have the heart to be intolerant, much less vindictive towards
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