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OUTBREAKS IN CHINA.
THE HONGKONG WEEKLY PRESS AND course assurances at headquarters that such a state of things will not be permitted by them; and it is quite possible that these assurances are to some extent at least sincere. The Peking officials who are fairly informed as to the drift of foreign affairs in the present day cannot but be aware of the desirability of avoiding any open conflict; but at the same time they may not be dis- pleased at occasional demonstrations in the provinces which may have the effect of keeping foreign nations at a distance, and causing them to hesitate to press reforms, which they might otherwise demand with
standing policy of Peking and there seems but too much reason to couclude that it is its policy to the present day.
(Daily Press, 30th April.) The possibility of serious difficulties arising in China, in consequence of her now feeling secure in the assurance that there is a con- sensus among foreign nations in favour of preserving her integrity, has been amply shown by the threats which have been rife in various directions and the outbreaks which have taken place in more places than one of late. There has been enough to show that notwithstanding all professions to the contrary and in face of some signs of improvement on the part of the Highmore persistency. This has been the old Authorities at Peking and the more en- lightened among the Provincial Officials, China as a whole remains unchanged in respect to her attitude towards outside Such a state of things is one which may nations. In a word, the only consideration justly cause apprehension, and it is not that will secure Europeans in China from surprising that fears have been expressed in insult or attack is in the present day, as many direction as to the possibility of much as it was in the earliest times, the serious trouble with China Matters, fear of immediate reprisals, and the possi- however, are not in quite so critical bility of such action on the part of the a position as might at first blush nation aggrieved leading to permanent dis- appear. While foreign nations are un. aster in the form of some seizure of terri-doubtedly in favour of preserving the tory. This wholesome dread of the couse quences of any serious outbreak has been the means of preventing their being of much more frequent occurrence than they have been for the last half century-though even in fage of this salutary restraint there have been outrages enough to have word out the patience of civilised natious, had they been perpetrated by any other nation in the world. The serious results of a forward movement of any one foreign nation in China on the position and interests of all others has prevented heavy reprisals being taken; and upon this reluct ance of foreign nations collectively to see the state of affairs in regard to China inter- terfered with by any one of them the Chinese have relied, and successfully relied, to keep all at a distance. She bas thus been able to hold her own and to preserve her integrity in a manner which would have been impossible but for the jealousies of foreign Powers among themselves. The drift of political events have of late years emphasised the desirability of preserving the integrity of China, if it is possible, to continue to do so by any reasonable means; and the Chinese are shrewd enough to be aware that the last thing which any foreign nation would be desirous of doing, or would be likely to be countenanced in doing by other foreign nations, is anything in the direction of warlike action which might end in the annexation of Chinese territory. It is not surprising that some of the more near-sighted among the officials backed up by a large number of the masses, who are even more ignorant, should conceive the idea that the time has come when foreign nations are less to be feared than was formerly the case. The old "
gun-
(Daily Press, 1st May.) boat policy", which in its day certainly did One of the marked features of the begin- good service, is known to be a thing of the ning of the century is that the power of past. Rapid reprisals in the old style with-generalisation, which distinguished the out any reference to headquarters, which were effective in their day, are not likely to be resorted to in these days of telegraphs and rapid inter-communication with head quarters. There is thus always the certainty of negotiation, and the Chinese are usually quite satisfied to rely upon their finesse to get out of any difficulties they make the sub. ject of negotiation with the slower-going for. eign nations. Under such circumstances there is no doubt reason to fear that outrages of the old stamp upon mission stations or upon isolated foreigners may be upon the increase; and that anti-foreign agitations and secret combinations may assume proportions which may end in serious trouble. We have of
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integrity of China, they are not prepared to translate this into allowing outrages of a serious character to pass unredressed. It is a noticeable fact that the two nations who have most emphatically enunciated this policy bave been those who but rocently let China know very distinctly that foreigners in China must be loyally protected. Japan spoke out in no measured terms on the subject when the recent threats of trouble were first heard; and the United States, who were to the forefront in maintaining the principle that Chinese integrity should be maintained, nevertheless acted with justifiable promptitude in despatching troops to Manila, when difficulties threatened. The Chinese Government are thus warned that there are two nations who can land forces if necessary within a very short space of time, who may at any given moment have to be reckoned with, should any serious rising be attempted; and we have thus a means of bringing them to reason, of a character which could not have been reckoned upon in former days. The Chinese do not mind doing things that may ultimately lead to war but may possibly be settled by negotiation, but they very soon come to their senses when force is displayed before them. If they are made aware that outbreaks or serious threats will be dealt with promptly they will take steps to put then down; and fortunately in the present day there are means of dealing with such matters with promptitude, and whose existence it may be hoped will not be overlooked.
THE SHIFTING OF THE AXIS.
great men who made the first half of the nineteenth century a landmark in the history of the world, has in a great measure become dormant, and the leadership in the advance has now passed into the hands of the micrographers, who in their devotion to microscopic detail are unable to raise their mental point of view sufficiently high to distinguish the horizon, and allow their purview to be restricted to the baggage about, much of which has been inadvertently piled up by themselves. Amongst the sufferers in the race of littleness is the science of geology, and amongst the subjects closely connected with geology is the kindred topic of seismology, where the prevailing
* [May 5, 1906. weakness is perhaps of all the natur
We do not sciences most conspicuous. mean to say that the seismologists have been standing still: they have been doing” a great deal, which in the hands of the future man of genius will some day doubl- less lead to results. They have, for example, invented a number of new instruments, which enable an earthquake to be recognised in the most distant parts of the earth. They have calculated the amplitude of the vibrations, and the time taken in their propagation, and have learnt to distinguish those vibrations which have been transmitted superficially from those which have passed through the body of the earth. They have learnt to locate within triding limits of error not only the spot where each particular shook originated, but its depth below the surface, and the occurrence of any serious shock in any part of the world, however remote or isolated, is now known by its own records in the leading observatories of the world. So much for the external aspects of the phenomena. Of the actuating causes which lead up to them seismology knows nothing, and it may almost be added cares to know nothing. The position of seismology amongst the sciences is very like that of a philosopher who had found for the first time a watch, and was desirous of knowing something about it, yet who should confine bis researches into elaborate_investigations as to its regular ticking and the equation of time, and omit altogether to enquire into the mainspring and the balance wheel. The geologist talks glibly enough of elevatory. forces, as if the shibboleth would open up everything, and never pauses to consider what are elevatory forces at all, or whonce they come or whither they tend; and the ceismologist follows him blindly round the corner, and never thinks of the quagmires and quicksands that may await them there. Now the Inst three months have been especially prolific of earthquakes, indeed we may go further and extend the term to the last three years, to the explosion ju Martinique. The earth, everyone knows, rests on an elephant, and the elephant on a tortoise; and whenever the tortoise moves the elephant quivers and the earth is shaken. So far so good, but creeping link by link along an infinite chuin "will never
nearer to the other ex- tremity; yet that is the position of the geologists, and their followers, the seismolo- gists of the day. True, science gives us formule for the summation of infinite serios, but that both persistently ignore.
carry us
We may, however, glance back over the events of the last three months with some interest, if not profit. On the 31st January the little town of Esmeraldas, on the Pacific coast of Colombia, was at ten o'clock in the morning severely shaken by an earthquskę which almost entirely destroyed it." [m. mediately afterwards a huge tidal wave came rushing in from the ocean, and carried off what the earthquake had spared. The same scene was "witnessed all along the coast of Colombia as far as Guayaquil. Now in the earthquake world Colombia is a place of importance: it is situated on the Equator, and here two well established earthquake lines cross, and naturally Co- lombia experiences far more than its share of these unpleasant visitors. Something similar happened in 1902, when a severe earthquake occured in Guatemala on the 19th April; this earthquake was followed on the 11th May by the outburst in Martinique, and the entire destruction of the town of St. Pierre, and the disturbanced thence spread to Europe and even the If we follow the reports which
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