February 6, 1905.]
ed; but it is scarcely likely that Great Britain would be disposed to bind herself in a fixed manner as the champion under all circumstances of even so desirable a
cause.
It has to be remembered that Great Britain does not stand alone. America is deeply interested, and other foreign nations have their interests to protect. The best hope is that European nations generally will recognise that the day is past for any attempts at a masterful policy in the Far East. The difficulties of pursuing any ag- gressive line of action have been shown to he far greater than has been imagined, and there will in the future be a wise tendency to abstain from high-handed aggression which may involve altogether unforeseen cost and responsibility. There will thus be a con- ensus of opinion in the direction of more sensus
peaceable and consequently more stable relations; an the common action of the majority of the Powers, through their in- fluence both in China and Japan, will go far towards preserving the peace. There is also the consideration which has been well brought forward by a well-informne 1 corres- pondent of the Times newspaper, that matters may settle down after the war through better relations being established between Russia and Japan, at least for a long time to
If this should be the case the cause of opposition to England on the part of Russia, namely the fear that that country may interfere with her scheme of aggression in the Far East, would be re- moved, and thus the pecessity of any formal alliance between England and Japan would be removed also.
come.
A CHINO-JAPANESE ENTENTE?
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(Daily Press, 31st January.) The arrivalat some understanding between China and Japan, which has been fore- shadowed by recent events, and has been actually announced in various forms of late, is by no means unlikely to become an accomplished fact. The trend of affairs has been eutirely in that direction, and it is the interest of both nations that an agreement of some kind should be made for their mutual protection and benefit. The scanty nformation that has been forthcoming on the subject seems to indicate that Japan at least recognises the necessity of coming to definite terms with China; and the probabilities are that the latter country will find it to her advantage to fall in with the views of her neighbour in this respect. It is sur- prising that China has during the convul. sions that have arisen been able to maintain something like a neutral attitude. At the opening of the war it was generally believed, or at least generally apprehended, that Caina would certainly be drawn in on one si le or the other. But in a Chinese kind of way she has managed to maintain a fairly neutral attitude, and has shown greater powers
of central control than from all that is known of her past history could have been expected. It was obviously her policy to await the outcome of events, and no one can blame her for having adopted an oppor- tunist policy in the difficult position in which the outbreak of the war placed her. But recent events are likely to cause her to lean towards some sort of alliance, or at least common understanding with Japan, however little she might formerly have been inclined to such a course. Chinese atatesmen are not as a rule very far-sighted; but no one can deny that they are always clear-sighted. Given actual facts, they usually know how to deal with them; and recent events must have made it apparent to her that Russia is no longer a Power upon which she can rely for support against
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CHINA OVERLAND TRADE REPORT. aggression from other nations, while on the other hand, the support of Japan is likely to be of great value. Under such circumstances it would seem to the interests of both nations to make common cause, and to endeavour to come to a friendly understanding, not only as to Manchuria, but upon other matters in respect to which the interests of the two nations are at one.
THE WAR SETTLEMENTS.
75
(Daily Press, 1st February.) Amidst the stirring events which have for a long time past absorbed public attention in the East, and indeed throughout the world, there is a danger that the cause which has led up to them may be over- looked. This would be a serious matter when the time comes for a re-settlement after the conclusion of the war. Those who are acquainted with the history of political movements in these parts can have little difficulty in finding the true cause of the That cause un- troubles that have arisen. doubtedly is the inherent weakness of China and her uncertain and insincere external policy. It was this that brought about the war between China and Japan, and it
broken out.
The most natural way in which this might be accomplished would of course be by something in the form of treaty; but the probabilities are rather in the direction of some secret understanding than of a formal treaty. The latter would be open to objection on the part of some of the foreign Powers, or at least would be likely to be interfered with by them. Probably the main point: to be settled between China and Japin will be arranged by treaty, was this also that gave Russia the oppor while at the same time there is some under-tunity of filching from Japan the position standing between them as to common action which she had fairly gained by conquest in in certain eventualities. This at all events that war; and thus giving cause for the is what seems to be foreshadowed by the war between Japan and Russia. But for various intimations that there have been the inability of China to hold her own in on the subject, and on the whole it will pro- Manchuria, and the weakness with which bably be the best thing that can happen in she permitted Russia to continue in occu- the interests of peace and of legitimate pation of that country in defiance of repeat- commercial progress in the Far East. ed promises to evacuate it, the war which China of course could not be very strongly has proved so disastrous would never have relied upon as an ally either of Japan or of
China deliberately allowed any other nation. The instincts of Chinese her integrity to be threatened, and with it statesmen are too opportunist to allow of the interests and in all probability also the implicit reliance being placed upon their integrity of Japan. The motive which in- acting up to any general understanding, duced her to take up this unfortunate posi. should circumstances arise in which it may tion was no doubt largely a fear of Russia; appear dangerous or disadvantageous for and it is but common justice to admit that China to do so. But the probabilities all this fear was apparently only too well lie in the opposite direction; and the likeli- founded. Another motive, however, may hood is that reasonable common action well have actuated Chinese statesmen. The would for many years to come be found effect of allowing Russian encroachments obviously to the advantage of both nations. must have been apparent to them. Others So far as European nations are concerned, not better informed and certainly not more this is likely to be to their advantage rather astute than the Chinese clearly foresaw the than otherwise, as the Japanese have always treud of events. Either Russia would have been disposed to a more liberal policy in to stop her advances on the representations trade and other matters towards foreign of Japan or there would be war between nations than has China. The suggestion the two countries. In either case Japan by Japan that Manchuria should be open would be forced to fight China's battle for to foreign trade generally is an instance in her-diplomatically in the one case and by point. Should this be arranged, the co-force of arms in the other; and this is operation of those nations would be secured, precisely what would commend itself to at least as far as diplomacy is concerned, Chinese statesmen, who have ever since we in preserving the state of things that would have known them shown themselves adepts be established in that country under either at profiting by pitting one nation against Japanese or joint Japanese and Chinese another. The burden anyway was rule; and affairs would thus be upon a securer pushed off their own shoulders and respon- basis politically and a more advantageous sibility evaded for the time being, which is footing commercially than they could be if generally the chief aim of Chinese officials, the country remained as before always when difficulties arise. Russia and Japan likely to be overrun by Russia, whose trading being both from her point of view the rivals policy there as elsewhere would be of a or opponents of China, nothing could be more in accord with the eternal order of purely protective and restrictive character. In this as in other matters an advance would be made which would be substan- tially to the advantage of foreign nations generally; and in other directions, it is likely that China would be induced to adopt a more liberal policy than she has hitherto done. It could be seen that Japan had benefited by that course; and that similar benefit might be obtained by China in the same direction. On the whole, therefore, an understanding of the kind indicated would tend to the improvement of commer- cial re'ations, and would also be in the interests of peace, by diminishing the likeli- hood of further attempts being made against the integrity of China, the preservation of which is as essential to Japan as to China herself.
The Nagasaki correspondent of the N. C. Daily News reports telegraphically that Pele tika Sergey, part owner of the cargo of the captured steamer Nigretia, has been released at Saseho, and was to leave Nagasaki in the P.M.S. Mongolia.
thus
things than to set those two nations the one against the other and see what came of it. The outcome, however, as is usually the case in regard to far reaching diplomacy, has been "the only thing certain expected "--and, in this case, certainly the very unexpected.
'— “the un-
That Japan might make some kind of show against Russia, sufficient at all events to weaken the latter and to make her less disposed than before to pursue her policy of aggression, might be reasonably- looked for; but that Japan should have shown herself able to repel the formidable "Colossus of the North both by sea and land, and to steadily gain position after position that seemed impregnable, was very much more than either China or any other nation considered within the bounds of the
ever, this state of affairs which will have to be dealt with diplomatically at the close of
probable or even the possible. It is, how-
the war; and it is of essential importance what attitude China will take up with
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