January 14, 1905.]
CHINA OVERLAND TRADE REPORT. duty to take. He reminds us that "the doubtedly proved themselves hitherto more development of the plant or tree depends able and enterprising than their opponents, upon what the master gardeners, and their and have learnt much from the experience assistants, make of it." We have heard of the past. With the further advance of that when branches grow crookedly, the the Russian fleet the Japanese will be able master gardeners, or their assistants, resort to hamper their coal supply, and if they to pruning. They lop them off. That, as succeed in doing this effectively, the other "W. D." bas innocently indicated, is parti-ships will apparently be at their mercy. cularly true in its bearing upon the question position like this, where each side feels con- of capital punishment.
fident of victory, is not conducive to friendly
THE WAR,
(Daily Press, 11th January.) How far General STOESSEL was justified in prolonging the defence of Port Arthur after the Russian defeat at Linoyang, capped by General KUROPATKIN'S failure to recover his lost ground at the Sha Ho, may well remain a moot question for future historians to decide. What concerns us now is what is likely to be the immediate effect of his eventual surrender. The Japanese are, as their conduct throughout the war has shown, a chivalrous people, and have never shown any disposition to judge at too low a rate the prowess of their enemy. Although they were ready to acknowledge the bravery of the defence, they have not in the terms finally granted shown any disposition to rate at any extraordinary value the personal valour of their opponents, and General STOESSEL has had to share the fortunes of his fellow officers. There are, however, a set of noisy talkers ever anxious to settle the affairs of the entire world, who have
councils.
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withdraw from her present attitude; sub.. mission would, in effect, be with Japan extinction, and however much she may desire to ingratiate herself with her good, friends on the Continent, she feels that she would not be justified in yielding at the cost of all that makes a nation great and respected to their blandishments.
The fall of Port Arthur will, however, open up a little more of Manchuria to foreign trade, and with this slight amelio- ration we must make up our minds to feel happy, at least for the present.
PROVING CHINA SOLVENT.
On the other hand, there is no doubt that the present condition of Russia, wherein her rulers have to face an imminent revolution, might be supposed to have some effect on the party in power and incline it to peaceful
(Daily Press 12th January) measures; but it has yet to be proved that that party has at all waked up to the gravity The publications ofthe statistics department of the position, and even so, there are signs of the Chinese Imperial Customs are usually as lucid as they are interesting, and in his that it affects to see in a continuance of the war the best hope for the policy to which it " Inquiry into the Commercial Liabilities has committed itself, of crushing out the and Assets of China in International revolutionary spirit. Such things are not Trade," which publication we have just contrary to experience, even in Russia. The received, Mr. H. B. MORSE, the statistical latter end of the reign of CATHERINE was secretary, ha succeeded in maintaining the standard of these familiar "yellow backs." marked by a very similar spirit, and was met by encroachments abroad, when a policy Beginning with what is called the "adverse of concession to the discontent at home balance" of trade, derived by comparing would have seeme! a wiser recourse than import returns with exports, some simple expending the force of the empire in distant calculations based on a ten years' table expeditions. CATHERINE, however, succeed-given show that China's exports have ed in enlisting the sympathies of her sub-increased Hk. Tls. 91,515,080, or more than jects, and the danger passed off. CATHE- one-third of the present value. Imports RINE's arms were, however, successful, while have increased Hk. Tls. 170,884,227, or up to this the arms of Russia in the present considerably more than fifty per cent. The fact that imports are now a third greater in value than the exports is considered to be an anomaly, and the inquiry is directed to explaining it. When imports overbalance exports, the layman is minded
contest have been from first to last unsuc-
made themselves conspicuous in the present cessful. The tide, however, may of course instance by their fussy attempts to step in turn, and in such an event the people at between the belligerents with their parrot- large may rally round the throne. Should like cry of Stop the war!" and have been Russia retire on the other hand, and ac- urging on the principal Powers of the world knowledge herself defeated, there is no to separate by bringing to bear on both doubt that the present discontent would be Russia therefore combatants what they are pleased to call seriously aggravated. peaceful pressure. Hitherto neither side has, in the eyes of her present lenders at has been willing to listen to these unwelcome least, every inducement to persevere. This suggestions, but with a perseverance worthy is probably the reason of the apparently of a better cause these would-be busy-bodies aimless insults she has recently been offer- have been announcing that with the fall of ing to England. It is true that she has the fortress it was their intention to renew had momentarily to submit to an outside their possibly well-meant, but certainly ill-adjudication of the North Sea outrage, but timed suggestions. War, it is acknowledged on all sides, is an evil to be avoided if possible at almost any sacrifice; but is this everlasting preaching the best way to bring it about? We trow not. Rather we would Bay it is the very best way to inflame those passions which have rendered the war in- evitable; and the after effects of a patched up peace, instead of bringing about harmony, are far more likely to result in au intensi- fication of the original differences, Russia on the one hand is by no means assured that she is beaten. Some of the sagest councillors on the Russian side openly advised at the beginning the immediate abandonment of Port Arthur, and her concentration of her forces at Harbin and Vladivostock. This is actually the position at the moment. Except for the weakening by the last year's campaign of the fleet then in Eastern waters, neither Vladivostock nor Harbin has felt the pressure of the war. A large Russian fleet, larger in fact than the fleet with which she commenced the war, is now closely approaching Eastern waters, and of the success of this fleet Russia feels, or affects to feel, assured. Japan has to meet it a fleet certainly much damaged during the war; she acknowledges the loss before Port Arthur of two of her most powerful battleships, and it cannot be that the remainder, from the hard work they have encountered during the past summer, are as well equipped as when they started the war. On the other hand, the Japanese are confident in the superiority of their officers and crews, who have un-
there are already signs that she intends to repudiate her own bargain should the issue prove unfavourable; she has already gained time, and has made use of it to get her fleet into the Indian Ocean, and this was pro- bably her sole reason for having so far yielded to dictation. She has, however, no intention of abandoning her policy of bluff: eveu the last mail brings news of her persistence in pretending 10 attack Afghanistan. It might have been supposed that between a war in Manchuria, needing all her resources, and a threat-ned revolution at home, the hands of Russia were fully occupied, without laying herself open to a further quarrel iu Turkestan, already not too well content with Russian rule. "Desperate diseases call, however, for desperate remedies, and she gladly faces the situation, 'recure apparently in the belief that England, at least, will never fight. Whether England will at the last moment, to save her honour, adopt warlike measures is at best a doubtful point. Russia was equally confident that Japan would never dare to face her, and rushed blindly into a serious conflict which has already taxed All these her powers to the uttermost. things go to prove that Russia is prepared to carry out her game to the bitter end. With such a resolve, and the issue being in the eyes of her present rulers one of oblitera- tion or victory, it is vain to expect that she will lend any ear to proposals of peace except on the assurance of the entire and unqualified submission of Japan. For the very same reason Japan is in no mood to
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anything that
to assume that either the means
or the credit of the nation are or is good; but statistical secretaries are made uneasy by In anomalous. appears China's case there appears to be no doubt We are told that the as to her means. Government "has not allowed any hesita- tion in demonstrating its ability to make There the periodic payments when due." is too much weight sometimes attached to mere figures, which, according to the way hey are presented, may show results either good or ill, as we have seen in the rival. statistics published in connection with the In this inquiry tariff agitation at Home. the position is further weakened by the necessarily incomplete returns dealing with the movements of treasure. It is pointed out that foreign enclaves, whether ceded or leased, must be taken into account by such an examination into the condition of com-
"
mercial China, owing to the interdependence The proceeds of of trade and the banks. sale of a consignment of cotton yarn for consumption in China may be applied to cash a bill drawn for a foreign navy, whether the expenditure of the latter is to be made at Kinochow or at Chefoo," and a Canton trade transaction involves a corres- ponding banking transaction at Hongkong. As there are no available statistics of the movement of treasure in and out of Hong. kong, to cover the financing of South China's share of international exchange, it is evident that no such inquiry can be pro- ductive of results as complete as are to be Doubt may also be cast upon the desired. trustworthiness of some of the statistics
acquired, as there is no authority, under extra-territorial conditions, to compel ac-
All these points are fully. curate returns. admitted, and the preseut report is present- ed as "the nearest to the truth that can be The Bett result of it is that attained.” China, with an estimated liability of Hk. assets Tls. 423,734,993, and estimated Hk. Tls. 424,751,694, is, commercially
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