December 26, 1904.]
whichever side proved victorious. It must have become abundantly evident to her that she ran less danger from Japan obtaining a strong influence in Manchuria than from Russia continuing her quasi Protectorate but real occupation of the country; and if Japan pushed the Russians back, she was after all only fighting the Chinese battle for them. Of course there was still the ques- tion of preventing the Japanese taking up an attitude which would menace the integrity of China. The fear of this had been from the first at the bottom of her easy yielding to Russian aggression; but in this respect the Chinese are shrewd enough to know that the influence of foreign nations would probably be sufficient to restrain Japan, while all past experience showed that it was not sufficient to restrain Russia. The wisdom of the course which was adopted cannot be doubted. Though the task was by no means an essy one, the Chinese have managed to escape the trap which in more ways than one was laid for them; and so averted a spread of complica- tions which would have been far reaching in its effects. Had China been forced into the war, Russia would have had, what she manifestly desired, namely a ground on which she could drag other Powers in. It would have become almost impossible for other nations to remain neutral.
ALLIANCE BETWEEN CHINA AND JAPAN UNLIKELY.
(Daily Press, 20th December.) In recently dealing with the question, that has been so earnestly discussed in the Home papers, of the effects which are likely to be produced by the probable overthrow of Russian supremacy in Manchuria, a writer in the Times bases a speculation as to the possibility of danger arising in the form of a combination between China and Japan against European Powers, chiefly upon the essential difference between the Chinese and the Japanese character. Judg. ing from this standpoint, he comes to the conclusion that there is not much ground to fear that there will be an "awakening of China" such as may be productive of the terrible results which have been fore- shadowed by writers in the Continental Press on this subject. This conclusion is no doubt a perfectly sound one; and it might have been sustained upon more solid grounds than merely the difference between the Chinese and the Japanese in character. The two peoples do not more differ in in- dividual character than in their national autonomy. Japan is a model of ceutralisa- tion, China a marvel of all that makes for decentralisation. In the former country there is complete control at Headquarters and loyal co-operation by subordinates and by the people at large; while in China, the want of control by the central authorities over those in the Provinces has always stood out as a marked feature, and must for many years to come prevent such reforms as have been introduced into Japan, where the nation as a whole can be much more easily moved. What has been done in Japan is thus im- possible in China. It must be very many years before such a change could be wrought as would make it possible for China as a whole to assimilate western knowledge and appliances as Japan has done; or, if it cou'd do so, to use them for the benefit of the
nation at large. Before such a period has elapsed, other changes of an equally im- portant character may reasonably be looked for, which will greatly modify any danger that might be supposed likely to arise. The opposition to Europeans which causes out breaks from time to time is chiefly the
CHINA OVERLAND TRADE REPORT. result of the Chinese adherence to their old system; and before this could be overcome sufficiently to enable China to adopt Euro- pean appliances-warlike and other-in any way that could possibly be considered likely to lead up to an invasion of Europe even in conjunction with Japan, she would have learnt enough to make her very little in- clined for any such enterprise. A combina- tion of this nature between China and Japan such as would be dangerous to Europe generally is thus in the highest degree improbable within any period of time worth considering as a matter of practical politics; and indeed, except so far as it may be pro- voked by a common danger from aggressive action on the part of a given European nation, any such combination is very un- likely at all. The Chinese are no friends specially of the Japanese, and will be quite coutent to hold their own in their own peculiar way for very many years to come, and even if this were not so, there is no reason to imagine that the Japanese will have any idea of joining with them for a beroic attack upon Europe as a whole. Their whole tendency indeed is precisely in the opposite direction. They have fully recognised that their main interests are in common with foreigu nations considered generally. They are anxious to come into line in all questions of commercial and general policy, and are, in any case where China night adopt a different attitude, much more likely to be a support than an opposition to western nations."
It is no doubt so new a thing in the history of European dealings with Eastern nations, for a foreign Power to meet with opposition such กร has been made against Russia, that it is not surprising people should speculate as to
what will be the outcome of such an event. It is generally assumed that Japan will become elated to such a degree that any thing reasonable or unreasonable may be expected of her. The facts, however, do not justify any such apprehensions. It was certainly with great reluctance that Japan entered upon the war, which she was to the last anxious to avoid if Russia has given her any opportunity of doing so. The steady aggression of Russia threatening her independence was so manifest that action could not be avoided. It does not at all follow that in normal circumstances a war- like policy will be acceptable to a nation among whom the instincts of trade and peaceful progress are marked features. The only circumstances in which it is likely that Japan and China would combine in warlike operations are where a mutual danger rendered such combination ab-olutely neces sary for self preservation; and it is not likely that this will arise. The idea that out of mere ambition and desire for con- quest China and Japan would combine for a general attack upon Europeans completely ignores the nature au genius of the latter country. The unanimity necessary to sus tain such a gigantic enterprise could hardly be aroused among the Chinese, even if it were in any degree likely that it would be ncceptable to Japan to unite her fortunes with so doubtful an ally.
The Korean Foreign Office, according to a report in the Korea Daily News, has declared the contract entered into between a Korean styling himself the bead of the Korean Fish ries Co., and a Japanese whaling syndicate at Nagasaki, for whaling rights on the Korean coasts, null and void. The Foreign Office is unaware of the exis ence of a "Korean Fisheries Co. and moreover cannot endorse any' such contract, which was made without its know- ledge.
DANGER OF DELAY.
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(Daily Press, 21st December.) Although we do not by any means en- dorse the statements made by some of the alarmists in North China as to the feeling in the Northern provinces against foreigners, it cannot be doubted for a moment that there is less disposition on the part of the Chinese and their officials to welcome foreign enterprise into the country. The Boxer agitation and the anti-foreign views expressed by many natives in the interior are the fruit of incendiary literature and false reports spread in the tea-shops, but these are not, we believe, in any way coun- tenauced by the Imperial Government or even by the provincial officials. The atten tion of the Waiwupu having been called to the anti-foreign tracts recently published in the three Northern provinces, a memorial was addressed to the Throne on the subject, and a Rescript soon followed, of which the following translation is given by our Shanghai morning contemporary:- -་་ At Tamin and Shuote in Chihli, Changté in Honan, and Tungao-hsien in Shantung there are societies of bandits reported to be established which gather together men in great numbers and spread false rumours. These societies have for their object the harassing of Christians, and they seek to raise trouble by exciting suspicion. If this is really the case these societies ought to be rooteds out completely at once, and the members arrested and dealt with im mediately. That the affair may be nipped in the hud, YUAN SHIH-KAL, CHOU FU, and CHEN KWEI-SUNG must therefore give orders at once to the civil and military officials of the various places, directing them to allow no concealment, but to apprehend the offenders by direct and secret methods, and deal with them respectively according to their deserts. Moreover, the lives and property of the missionaries in the various places must be jealously protected; there must be no disturbance whatever, as will be the result if there is any remissness on the part of the officials. We consider this a most important matter." From this it will be gathered that the Peking Government is quite prepared to take the steps necessary to repress any attempt that may be made by agitators and to prevent any fanatic feeling hecoming dangerous, for they cer tainly do not want another occupation of the capital and district by foreign troops, and they recognise that the Powers cannot permit their subjects to be wantonly mas. sacred.
But while they are anxious not to afford a fresh pretext for foreign interference, they are also more alive to the inadvisability, from their point of view, of allowing for. eigners to obtain a footing in the country after the manner of the Muscovites in building a railway across Chinese territory and then usurping administrative functions on the plea of affording the line protection. The Chinese people have also seen the Russian hosts beaten back with great loss by the Japanese armies, and they not un- naturally begin to suspect that the talons of the Bear are not so powerful as they bad been led by appearances to suppose. They are therefore waxing bolder in their de meanour to foreigners, and are freely urging their authorities not to grant any further concessions to strangers for railways. The action of the people of the Two Kwang in asking that the concession to the American Syndicate to build the Hankow-Canton Railway should be cancelled because they
had agreed to sell their rights under their agreement to the Belgian Syndicate and the success attending it was one proof of this
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