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JAPAN AND RUSSIA.
(Daily Press, 24th October.) If we were to judge by REUTER's telegrams from London alone, it would not be possible to hope that war between Japan and Russia could be averted for more than a few days, or weeks at most. Every item of intelligence concerning the Far East which reaches us from home seems to convey an immediate threat, except perhaps the despatch of the 23rd instant which mentions Admiral ALEXIEFF's expected visit to St. Petersburg early next month It is true that the latter message says that "the crisis in China will possibly be delayed thereby," but this appears to be an error, for there is no more crisis in China, capable of delay, now than there was a year ago. If Admiral ALEXIEFF visits St. Petersburg it seems certain that his chief object will be to seek advice on the state of relations between Russia and Japan, not between Russia and China, But though the new Russian Viceroy's journey may iudicate at least a temporary con tinuance of peace, it cannot be denied that the news of Japan's instructions to the steamship and railway companies, as well as to the gunboats about to go into winter quarters at Newchwang, betray an anxious feeling од the part of cur allie that it will not do to pause because of the advent of winter. The doubling of LLOYD'S insurance rates to the Far East on the 22nd instant shows what is thought of the situation at home. On the other hand, messages from the Noth continue to insist upon the unlikelihood of war, and to reiterate the hope that all will pass off peacefully. The amount of news, indeed, vouchsafed to us from the North is both scanty and devoid of excitement. It is plain that neither Japan or Russia wishes to cause any alarm by betraying unusual business in military and naval preparations. But this fact in itself may possibly be con- sidered ominous, seeing that all outside observers appear to be able to detect extraordinary exertions in both countries. It is only natural that, if either Japan or Russia is actually getting ready with a view to war, that country will also make every endeavour to conceal the matter from the world in general and its rival in particular. The truth appears to be that both nations are doing their utmost to be prepared for war, if it should be found inevitable; but neither is satisfied as to the right moment to strike, or even whether it is worth striking at all. It has been said that Russia has only been waiting the arrival of naval reinforcements. But Russia has most assuredly not heen putting things off until the arrival of winter, when she will only have one ice free port, viz., Port Arthur. If she were to wait so long, she would at least contride, if possible, to tide matters over until the thaw of spring sets Vladivostock free again. The good sense of both peoples may avoid conflict altogether as we hope it will. If this is not to be, the sooner the struggle comes the better. The present state of doubt is paralysing to the whole of the Far Fast!
(Daily Press, 30th October.) By way of a change, REUTER's telegrams published to-day bring us news of a peace ful nature with regard to the Russo- Japanese situation, which, coupled with the intelligence of the demobilisation of all the Bulgarian reserves, seems to point to the prospect of a winter without war. At one time it looked very probable that, at one or other end of that vast region known as "the East," hostilities must break out, and the only question appeared to be which was
THE HONGKONG WEEKLY PRESS AND
the more likely, supposing that we should be lucky enough to escape two wars at once. Both wars would have been a serious menace to the peace of Europe, but for Great Britain à breach in the Far East would of course have been infinitely more serious. In spite of the agitation of a small section at home, hostilities in the Balkans could concern Britain but little. Naturally we desire a peaceful state of affairs there, and can only feel horror at such scenes as have been witnessed in Macedonia during the past months. But the partition of Mace. donia would really affect us very little. It might almost be argued that, since we are now quite firmly established in Egypt, even the seizure of Constantinople could hurt us but infinitesimally. In the Far East matters stand very differently. The ques- tion at issue between Japan and Russia seems to be the predominauce in the whole of the North-east of Asia. In the first place, the mastery of the Gulf of Pechili is at stake. Russia's posses- sion of Corea, or even of Corea as far south as Seoul only, would give her an indisputable pre-eminence, overawing China and commanding the northern seas. As it seems inevitable that we must consider Russia a hostile Power, such a position would reduce our foothold in North China to nothing and leave the Chinese Emperor a vassal of the Tsar. On the other hand, with Japan installed safely in Corea, Russia would be outflanked in Manchuria, and held in check with regard to her aggressive conduct toward her neighbours. REUTER states in his telegram of the 27th instant, on the authority of the London Standard, that official information has been received in Berlin that the Tsar NICHOLAS and Count LAMSDORFF have approved of the drafts of a Russo-Japanese Convention providing a peaceful compromise for all differences. This information is said to have reached Berlin alike. from Tokyo and from St. Petersburg. How it comes that, if correct, it has not reached the other capitals of Europe, we cannot say. We can only hope that it is true. No one can more sincerely desire the continuance of peace in the Far East than Great Britain, and we can feel confidence that Japan will have concluded no agreement which in any way affects her national honour. She has acted throughout the crisis in a manner which would be exemplary in any nation, and received the reward she so well deserves in a fair and honest convention which will set at rest the various differences between her self and her neighbour. War might ruin both nations; peace should enable them to advance towards that prosperity of which both stand so much in need commercially.
we trust that she has
THE OPENING OF CHINA.
(Daily Press, 31st October.) Ir was with some curiosity that we read that last week a meeting of the Shanghai Chinese Y.M.C.A. defeated a resolution to the effect that "the opening of the whole of China to international commerce under exist ing trade conditions and precedents would be beneficial to China." It is true that it was not exactly a vote of the society which threw out the resolution, but a judgment upon the arguments advanced for and agaiust. Nevertheless the decision is hardly one which would have been looked for. The chief arguments advanced against the opening up of the country were:-the flocking in of undesirable people; the creation of hostility toward foreigners, followed by riots and the consequent loss of territory to China; the purchase of land and
we
November 2, 1903. building of houses by foreigners, taking away China's sovereign rights: and, finally, the inevitability of partition. It was also alvanced that the mere investing of foreign capital in China impaired her sovereign rights, and that with China thrown open dumping" of unnecessary foreign goods under the low tariff would ensue.
It may be seen that those arguments vary a good deal in their cogency.
It does not seem probable that large numbers of undesirables would care to penetrate into the interior of China. They are in the coast ports already, and they are not likely to desire to wander far from Europear luxuries, as they esteem them. As for the state of feeling which might be produced toward foreigners, a gradual accustoming of the natives to contact with foreigners is bound to come about. Of course, if the whole of China were suddenly thrown open and foreigners of all sorts were to pour in, trouble might reasonably be expected, but this is not what should describe as "the opening of China to international commerce under existing trade conditions and precedents." The purchase of land and building of houses by foreigners in the interior would, it is true, have some effect upon China's sovereign rights as long as exterritoriality exists in China and foreigh money cannot be invested in China without a certain amount of infringement of China's rights. But China cannot take a dignified place in the world save by progress, and that progress is not going to come from within but must be bought at a price. The question for China to settle is, how much is it worth paying? As to partition being the inevitable result of the opening up of the whole country, the very reverse is surely the truth. Had Manchuria been open to foreigners it would not now be practically a part of Russia. It is because they were closed places that Kiaochau, Weihaiwei, and Kwanchauwan longer Chinese. An open port is China's great safeguard against aggression. If Moukden, Tatungkou, and Autung are really to be opened, in accordance with the new commercial treaties between China and the United States and Japan, then there will be at least a vestige of China's sovereignty over Manchuria left. The future safety and integrity of the Chinese Empire really depends on the abandonment of the policy of exclusion. This does not mean that China ought suddenly to throw the doors wide open. What is required is that the principal towns which form trading centres shall be gradu- ally, but not too gradually, made open 'ports" under similar conditions to those already existing. This removes the question of their seizure by any one nation from one between China and that nation to the international class. There can be little doubt what would have happened at Amoy in 1900, had Japan then a free hand. Happily our Allies listened to reason and withdrew their force from the international settlement without delay. The only sound advice that friends of China can give her is to open the principal towns in every province to foreign trade, for this will preserve the provinces to China. If they are not opeued under China's rule, they will pass from that rule, slowly perhaps, but surely. Foreigners cannot of course claim that they do not hope to profit very largely by the opening up of China; but at least they can say sincerely that China herself will be the greatest gainer. The present unhappy government of the Empire is doing much to impair its integrity; prolonged for many more years and maintaining an exclusive policy to the utmost, it will finish
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