August 1, 1903.]
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CHINA OVERLAND TRADE REPORT. Port Arthur and Newchwang was to send their families back to Russia because of the imminence of war. also has issued 50 or 60 letters of marque The Russian Admirai which would be sufficient to secure the blockade of all Japanese ports in the event with other countries would be paralysed. of war, so that Japan's traffic and commerce
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III. THE CHANCES OF WAR.
en route from Russia and the remainder will be despatched at the first possible moment.
The Russian fleet is only 58 strong, and as regards construction and armament is not so formidable as the Japanese fleet; but the Russians have got two submarines (French type) and four others are due to arrive in a few days; and that addition to the Russian naval strength should decide the chances in favour of Russia. Then the Russian mar- ines are known as brave and famous watriors -as witness the attack on the Taku forts- After the declaration of war, which now and the same can be said of the Cossacks; and must be admitted to be a matter of days only, that is a condition which has to be taken into the Japanese forces will be divided into four account in the event of a war with Japan. armies. Of this I have certain information, The Japanese Government have called to secretly derived from a high Japanese official arms all reserves. All officers and soldiers source. The first step must be the destruction who have been in the reserve since the of the Russian fleet, without which Japan operations in North China have been ordered to re-join their regiments immediately; A and Russian territory. Therefore the first cannot transport her troops to Manchuria steamer of the Nippon Yusen Kaisha which fight, or at least the first serious battle, must was leaving Shanghai & few days ago carried be a sea-fight, The question arises, Will the back to Japan many hundreds of officers Russians send out their fleet from Port Arthur and men recalled by hurried orders. Now
or not? If they venture out into the Gulf Japan has assembled all her forces in the of Pechili, the struggle will certainly be in neighbourhood of Nagasaki, Fukuoka, Kure, more advantageous circumstances for the Moji, and in Hokkaido Bay, Sapporo, and Japanese, and the chances will be more in Hakodate in all, about 20 1,000 men. Within the last two or three days that leave the shelter of Port Arthur, then the their favour. If the Russian fleet does not number has been increased to 280,000 or Japanese fleet must seek it there. This is a 300,000 men; but after, a declaration of very different matter. The Russians will then war and the calling together of the second have the support of their forts and the help class (reserve), they must have all something like a force of 400,000 men. the Japanese would be an extremely difficult in of excellent fortress artillery. Victory for The Japanese fortifications are being hurried thing. Moreover the Russians have submarine ly repaired and the armaments remounted. boats and know how to use them. Should Thousands of Japanese are working in the the Japanese fleet be crushed the war would fortresses of Kumamoto, Nagoya, Ikayama, already be half over. Hiroshima, Hamamatsu, Kanazawa, Fukui, army in Corea, 35,000 or 40,000 strong, would The small Japanese Gifu, Tsuruga, Shizuoka, Yokohama, and Tokyo. It must be said at once, however, proportion of about three to one, while the soon be attacked by Russian troops in the that nearly all Japanese fortresses are very badly constructed. They are built according Yokohama and Tokyo. Russian troops would Russian fleet would cross over and bombard to an old type, dating from the feudal days land at Atsuta and Tsuruga Bay and then at when every little prince or duke had his Yokohama itself. England holding back, own city and was the ruler of his pro-Japan would be in an extremely bad fix. On vince. The forts are mostly in the the other hand, should the Japanese fleet middle of the city and the houses of be victorious at Port Arthur, then an attack the people are in many cases only a few metres distant from the forts. The castles
would be made on the place itself There themselves are often armed with artillery from the sea is the hardest, for, as I have are three ways of doing this. The attack which is much too old to be of any use, said, Port Arthur is fortified as a fortress of though the garrisons are large enough to put the first rank from the sea side and its up a good defence were they better supplied capture would mean terrible losses to the with ordnance. Only two or three of the assailants. The second way is to attack it fortified points, such as Kumamoto and from the side of Talienwan. After the cap- Kanazawa, are built in the modern manner ture of that port (which would not be so and have good artillery In the present state hard) a southward movement would follow of things Japan has neither time nor money to make the necessary improvements for heights and obtaining command of the with a view to carrying the Hsinhanchen placing her forts in proper condition to repel attack if the war should be carried into would, I think, be as difficult almost as extreme end of the Liaotung Peninsula. This Japan.
the attack from the sea. The Japanese naval force is stronger and at Hsinhanchen is a big mountain with The position more numerous than the Russian squadrons a narrow which are now at Port Arthur and Vladivos-through which the railway runs.
pass between two high peaks, tock. The Japanese battleships are superior. approached from Port Arthur, the ascent Easily The whole Japanese fleet numbers 118 vessels, from the side of Talienwan is very difficult, but one-third of these are old ships or small The third plan open to the Japanese is to gunboats, so that the fighting force amounts take possession of Newchwang, and even to about 78 ships. But as mentioned above, there batteries and troops are strong enough the Russians have now two submarines and are waiting for four more, and these will give favour the Japanese the same position would to offer a good resistance. Should fortune an enormous advantage to the Russians. The still face them at the end of the Liaotung destructive capabilities of the submarines Isthmus as in the second alternative. require to be understood to be believed. Given a good chance, a submarine can sink eighteen battleships in an hour, and a battleship in return can do nothing to the submarine but must make herself scarce if she would escape from being sunk.
Then the Japanese infantry is equal to the Russian or perhaps a little better, but the Japanese cavalry is nothing--bad horses and bad riders alike while all who have seen the Cossacks on the field of battle admit that they are the best cavalry in the world. And it must be remembered that in a war in Manchuria the cavalry would have the principal part to play. Without cavalry an army would be lost. According to latest telegrams the Russians have drilled about 80,000 Chinese soldiers who will make very good auxiliary troops, taking charge of the provisions for the Russians and making guerilla war against the Japanese.
The last order of the Russian Minister in Peking to all merchants and agents in
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Should, however, Port Arthur fall from the sea side the Japanese would have to face the Isthmus. army of General Stesselt on the Liaotung then there would be no obstacle before them If they captured the Isthmus, antil Moukden, where the second Russian army would await them and good fortifica tions. But if any one thinks that the capture of the Liaotung Isthinus and the Hsinhan chen position puts Port Arthur at the mercy of the Japanese, he is greatly mistaken. The place is now very strongly fortified on the land side, though of course not so strongly as from that of the sea. Again, if Port Arthur were captured from the sea, the Japanese would still have to storm the Hsinhanchen lines, which are also completely fortified on the Port Arthur side.
The Japanese second army in Corea already numbers from thirty-five to forty thousand They will be on the spot inmediately war is men, disguised in every-day civilians' clothes. declared. Reinforced by troops from Japan,
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bringing their numbers up to 80,000, they will occupy the principal cities of Cores, will proceed to drive from the north of Cores Seoul, Gensan, Chemulpo, and Fusan; and the Russians, who are in too small numbers to offer resistance and must withdraw. This army will then enter Manchuria and march westward to effect a junction with the other army and attack the Russian position at Moukden.
It is doubtful whether Japan will send and attack the Russians from the North. troops to Vladivostock to cut up the railway Japan has not sufficient men to send out four or five armies, and if a force were to be de spatched to take the Russians in the rear it would have to be very strong, and protected from being surrounded and captured. Most operations to South Manchuria and content probably Japan will confine her military herself with merely bombarding Vladivostock and other Russian ports.
But this is only the beginning of wan Japan by herself can with Russia to her advantage. Russia is never finish a war too strong and her total forces are to Japan's as 18 to 1. Russia may thus lose during continually sending new troops she must the first months of the struggle, but by finally drive out the exhausted Japanese This certainly means financial ruin to Russia. But Japan can never win, and if Russia but will lose all the power be ruined Japan will not only be ruined now. There will be a terrible difference she has
between Japan's state now and her state after the war. The Japanese Government The people is spurred on by the Press to sees this, as we do, but it can do nothing. listen to no reason.
There remains the question whether, if would be bound by the terms of the treaty Japan were thoroughly exhausted, England
knows that if she were of alliance to come to her assistance. She against Russia, France would declare war to declare war against her, by the terms of the Dual Alliance. This means a world-wide war. It is true that all this is speculative, but it information, is speculation based on good and sound
IV. THE REASONS FOR THE WAR
informed on affairs in the North, and who Every man who has been keeping himself
sees the imminence of war between Russia and Japan, must have asked himself "Why war? What are the reasons for war?"
Не cannot believe that Russia's refusal to asks these questions of himself because he evacuate Manchuria and declare the open door policy would induce Japan to resort that is true. Japan will not go to war to the arbitrament of the sword. And because of these things. The reason must be England is the Power that is secretly sought elsewhere. And where? In England, bringing about this world tragedy. Why Because it is necessary to England that each upon the other and ruin them Russia and Japan should
selves. And they must be ruined by such
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make
war
the Japanese fleet in the very first battle war, for if Russia does not destroy Japan inay invade Manchuria.
Thus the war will be a long and ruinous one, and the wish of England be gratified. It has long been the desire of England to method she takes to accomplish her ends. see Russia out of the way, and this is the
Russia and Japan are the two leading Powers in the Far East, and in the striving of each for premier place England sees her chance. She has long stirred up Japan to make war against Russia, but hitherto without success. Japan believes that England will redeem her promises and defray the expen- ses of the war, and that if she is stricken by Russia, England will come to her assistance Yes, England will come forward and help Japan, but only after Japan has been ruined for ever. Then, when the war is over, and Russia and Japan, the two leading Powers are ruined and out of the way, England will usurp the position of leading Power in the Russia and Japan. Far East and take the places now held by
All this is but too evident. Japan, without
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