July 5, 1902.]
CHINA OVERLAND TRADE REPORT. feathers, and as such indicate more truly than weightier events the direction of the wind; but have no further effect than has the weathercockon the coming storm.
JAPAN'S TRADE IN 1901.
half. Australia, Canada, Germany and China have also suffered, but India's and s Hongkong's trade with Japan revived. both on the import and on the export side. No single country took less exports from Japan in 1901 than in 1900. "The . United Kingdom's exports increased by £22,408. The imports from the United Kingdom of cotton yarns, shirtings aud cotton prints, cotton satins and cotton velvets, Italian cloths, flannels, woollen cloths, locomotive engines, railway carri ages, iron, bar, rails, iron and steel (other), aud paper were all less than in 1900. In fact, the import trade from the United Kingdom to Japan diminished by about thirty per cent. The only notable excep- tion amid a general decline was machinery and engines (other than Iccomo tive), the imports of which from the United Kingdom in the three years 1899, 1900, 1901 amounted to £299,514, £418,007, and £659,440, respectively. However, it may be noted that the United States, GermBOY, France, and Belgium also improved ou their 1900 figures in this line.
111
We propose to return to this subject shortly, as it is impossible to consider Mr. LAY's report within the limits of a single article:"
MR. LITTLE ON TARIFF REVISIÓN.
trade already beginning to tell on her own résources. The want of a partner, then, is pressing in order to aid her in pulling through the more difficult sections of the road. French methods of trude in her eyes are too redolent of concealed free-trade, so instinctively she turns to Austria and Italy as the nations which offer her the best
(Daily Press, 3rd July:) opportunity of extending her trade without The report of Mr. A. H. JAY, Acting enquiring too closely into her methods. Japanese Secretary to H.M.'s Legation at Russia in whose vast undeveloped re- Tokyo, on the foreign trade of Japan in sources she sees a probable competitor 1901, is not so behind the times as many in the near future, is of course by that consular reports are in the date of publica- very circumstance ruled out, so that the tion. The Foreign Office received Mr. ouly possible alliance from her point of LAY's at the end of March last and it was view is with Austro-Hungary, and as cir-published in England at the end of May. cumstances have compelled a close associa- It is an improved state of affairs which the tion commercially as well as politically report records, though it has to be between Austro-Hungary and Italy, the chronicled that many unfavourable features alliance with the former almost of necessity marked Japan's foreign trade last year. A compels also the inclusion of the latter, recovery from the evil conditions of 1900 was made business relations with China were renewed, the rice-crop was plentiful, the raw silk export-trade flourished, the outflow of specie was checked, stocks of goods fell to normal levels, and signs were not wanting to indicate the approach of a period of steady trade." Seeing that 1900 had seen a balance in foreign trade of £8,445,751 against Japan and an outflow of specie no less than £4,015,349, it will be seen that Japan has reason to congratulate The herself ou a change of fortune. Government had been incurring an exces-
(Daily Press, 4th July.) sive expenditure, the only remedy for which was to modify the post bellum In a clearly reasoned and temperately programine, as it is sometimes called, worded letter to our Shanghai, morning which followed the defeat of China contemporary on Tariff Kevision, Mr. in 1895. This policy, says Mr. LAY, ARCHIBALD LITTLE deals very forcibly and the general contraction of credit with this great question. Recognising to following a period of overtrading had their the full the great value of. Sir JAMES. effect. The result was approximate equi- MCKAY's proposal in favour of granting valence of inports and exports, the figures an addition of ten per cent. to the import being £26,114,616 and £25,760,682 respec-duty in exchange for the abolition of lekin tively, or a balance of £51,875,298 only in and other internal taxes, he points out that favour of imports. In May, and October: unless a really fair equivalent be obtained the December exports actually exceeded imports foreign trade will only be further hampered in quantity. Naturally the mishaps without any corresponding advantages incidental to a contraction of credit and being secured, for the lekin and loti-shui. currency were not absent. Bankruptcies put together now only average about five
The sinaller merchants
per cent. He is therefore în favour of * numerous, but the more important mercan-granting an addition of ten per cent. to the tile and financial institutions for the most import duty in exchange of and for the part survived the ordeal. The drain of abolition of all internal dues and the open- specie, as we have remarked, was checked. ing up of the country in freedom and During the summer of 1901 a sharp rise in security. By freedom he means that a foreigner shall be at liberty to carry on exchange, caused by exceptional activity in exports, led to gold flowing into Japan legitimate business, purchase or lease land, from several quarters. The export of establish industries, and enter into indus- bullion and specie in 1901 was as follows :---- trial partnerships with the Chinese in any gold, £1,171,696; silver, £262,482; total, part of the Empire. He would effect à £1,434,178. The import was: gold, clean sweep of all Custom-houses and lekin £1,087,310; silver, £31,599; total, stations in China, and, to make certain that` £1,118,909.
no machinery remained to enable the man- darius to levy squeezes, he would abolish the salt and opium lekin stations. The salt tax, he says, could be levied as an excize at the place of production, and the duty on opium collected from the hands of the pro- ducer if Chinese, or at the place of import Country.
if of foreign origin. This proposal is one British Empire-
that is not likely to find ready neceptance United Kingdom...£6,335,117 -£2,027,715 with the Chinese officials, for it is certainly Hongkong
5,403,11 + 315,553 India
5,352,994 + 2,063,801 calculated to reduce the army of parasites Australia
440,076 68,959 that now prey on the industry of the Canada ...
352.993 + 19,451 people. It is also probable that the man- darins would oppose the granting of any £17,884,291 +£302,134 further privileges of residence, ownership of land, or acquisition of mines by foreigners in the country. At the same time, if the Chinese Government really wish for an increase in revenue they must face the consequences. It is absolutely impossible that a further increase in the import duties can be conceded without such a quid pro quo as that referred to, otherwise foreign firms in China would find themselves in a singular
Circumstances, then, point to a close alliance between Germany, Austro-Hungary and Italy, as the most natural thing in the world, and doubtless so it would be were it not for other conflicting interests which Germany assumes are pulling her the other way, Germany, as we have seen, is almost of necessity driven to associate with the two in matters commercial, but her ideas are by no means contented with working on equal lines. What Germany wants with her partners is her own preponderance. From her point of view all she needs is a safe market for her protected manufactures which she is losing in the Anglo-Saxon countries; and to this end she will leave no stone unturned, with little consideration for the feelings or interests of her allies. Politically Germany looks to the absorption of the whole German-speaking race-such an absorption, in fact as would carry her territory to the Adriatic. These aspirations are of course natural, and are certainly shared by the German people, but none the less are a menace, to the peace of Europe and of the world. The least that can be said of them is that they reduce the Triple Alliance to little more than a phantom, and indicate that, should any strain be placed upon it, it must collapse from its own internal want of colresion. So he would be a very inattentive onlooker of events who would attribute auy vitality to the present alliance of France and Russia: one element of strength it undoubtedly has at the pre- sent moment, and that is a common hatred of England. England has undoubtedly stood in the way of both France and Russia in projects on which they had centred their most dailing ambitions. A French Africa was the dream of the one; a Russian Asia of the other. Neither of these was com- | patible with the aspirations of British Empire, and as the British nation at large was scarcely prepared to fall in with either, and showed pretty plainly its disapproval of both, the two nations, otherwise with no sympathy or feeling in common, were insen- sibly led into
a momentary alliance. Momentary we say without hesitation, as it carries none of thos, elements of a common interest which are necessary to the forma- tion of any permanent or abiding pact. Suppose in a future struggle Eugland and the British Empire were either altogether successful, or were altogether blotted out of existence; the result, in the first case would in the nature of affairs be a mutual repudia- tion, and mutual recriminations for having led to the disaster, or in the other event, of the inevitable struggle of the wolves and bears over the prey. Altogether, though at the instant interesting, neither of these continental alliances is in the slightest degree influencing or likely to influence the inevitable course of events. They are
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among
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were
The distribution of the trade will no The doubt be studied with interest. following able, extracted from Mr. Lay's figures, shows the total trades of the principal countries with Japan and the increases or decreases on the figures of 1900:-
Trade, 1901.
China France Germany...
United States
(hange.
£7,161,469 +£852,421 3,167,493 +386,107
3,402,057 + 83,286 11,747,625 25,400 With regard to imports, the largest decrease in value is in the case of the United Kingdom (£2,150,123), but the United States are close behind (£2,040,827), France's imports have diminished by one
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