October 7, 1897.]
THE TRADE of chinA AND THE STANDARD OF VALUE.
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In the report on the trade of China for 1896 by the Hou, Hugh GROSVENOR, Acting Secretary of Legation, there are some in- teresting remarks on the measure in which the value of the trade may most appropriately be stated and the probable effect of cur- rency changes on the development of the cotton industry. A table is given showing the relative annual values in currency and in sterling since the year 1885 of the foreign trade of China, which, if the silver value be taken, as has been customary, as the measure of its volume, would appear to have more than doubled during the period in question. But it appears to Mr. GROSVENOR that in making comparisons "extending back over રી
number of years the great fall in exchange "renders the silver figures a very de-
ceptive standard
for measuring the "variations in the volume of trade, and that the value of the commodities imported "into China from foreign countries and ex- ported to them is more fairly expressed in "terms of the metal which is the more general standard of value in those coun- "tries. For instance, the value of the raw "silk which the Lyons merchant imports from Canton or of the piece-goods which the Manchester manufacturer sends to Shanghai is not affected by the fluctuations in the currency unit used at the Chinese ports to designate that value.” As we had occasion to remark the other day, the foreigu trade of China is virtually conducted on a sterling basis. What Mr. GROSVENOR says supports that view. At the same time it is open to question whether on the whole sterling affords a more reliable measure of the value of the trade of the country over a long term of years than silver, for owing to the decline in gold prices an increase in the volume of the trade is consistent with a decline in its value as stated in gold, though the fall in prices has been less marked during the last few years than it was for some time previously. On the other hand, silver prices have been rising, so that a statement of the value of the trade in that metal ex- aggerates the increase in its volume. In 1885 the value of the trade was H. Tls. 153,205,729, or £40,500,000, while in 1896 it was H. Tls. 338,671,415, or £55,600,000, the actual increase in the volume, we take it, being less than the silver figures would represent, but more than the gold figures would represent. With the great increase in the production of gold that is now going on we are probably on the eve of a general increase of gold prices, but that is hardly calculated to improve the position of silver, owing to the adverse influences, in the shape of currency changes, operating on the fortunes of the white metal.
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Mr. GROSVENOR goes on to point out that China is not strictly speaking a silver using country, and that though all considerable sums are reckoned in taels and paid in silver, the true unit of currency is the cash. These absurd-coins are the medium by which all the daily transactions of the Chinese people are exclusively carried on.
"The
CHINA OVERLAND TRADE REPORT.
price of labour and of raw produce "alike must ultimately be paid in copper "cash, and the silver tael is merely a con- "venient form of reckoning or carrying about the number of cash for which it will exchange. It has been stated that while "the price of silver in relation to gold has been going down, its purchasing power in China has remained constant. "This would only be true if there had been "no alteration in the exchange between
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"silver and copper cash, and supposing the water, which for some occult reason is denied "value of the latter in relation to other com- to the port. This water is conducted under “modities to have remained unchanged. the sea to Fusan by a pipe, and the island is "As a matter of fact there has been a therefore of great importance to the town. "steady rise during the last few years in the The Japanese have a small coal godown on "silver price of cash; the year 1896 has Deer Island, and the fact has apparently "witnessed a further considerable rise been made the excuse for a demand by throughout China, attributed partly to Russia for a concession of twenty acres on "scarcity and insufficient minting of the which also to erect coal godowns. Another coin, so that the tael, which formerly report states that the Russians have secured exchanged for 1,500 cash, will now only the island as a naval coaling station. The purchase 1,200 or less. Side by side with this Japanese, not to be entirely left in the lurch, increase in the silver price of cash, there are said meantime to be erecting barracks at "has also been a marked tendency for the Gensan that will be capable of accommodating "cash itself to depreciate in regard to com- five thousand troops, though they state that "modities in general, so that the gold- they are intended for the use of the two price of Chinese commodities has not hundred men only, the number they are fallen to an extent by any means so great allowed, under the Russian Convention, to as has been generally assumed from the quarter at each of the Korean Treaty ports. "decrease in the exchange value of silver." Japanese agents are also reported to be using Speaking of the cotton industry and the money freely in Seoul in order to foster an bearing of the silver question upon it, Mr. anti-Russian feeling. It is clear from the re GROSVENOR remarks that if copper cash ports that trickle southwards from Korea that maintains its present inclination to appre- little real progress is being effected in the ciate with reference to silver and to decline peninsula, while in many matters greater in relation to everything else, a fall in confusion and ineptitude prevail than before the exchange value of silver would not be of the advent of the Japanese and Western any great advantage to the employers of nations. What will happen when the Rus Chinese labour. He expresses the opinion, sian instructors have taught the natives how however, that the wages now paid in Shang-to shoot and licked them into something like hai are considerably in excess of what the the semblance of soldiers it is hard to say. operatives could afford to take, and that It is inevitable, however, if the Japanese the necessity for the payment of a higher garrisons remain in the Treaty ports, that rate is not to be anticipated, although there will be friction and probably fighting. the average efficiency of the hands is One or other influence must predominate likely to increase considerably within the peninsula-either Russian or Ja- time. On the whole, Mr. GROSVENOR thinks that the foreign manufacturing in- dustry in China should have a great future before it, an opinion in which we believe all competent judges agree. We do not think, however, that the decline in silver will have anything like the effect upon the industry that is generally supposed, or that the pro- fits of the mills would be seriously prejudiced by the adoption of the gold standard by China. Labour and commodities will find their true value irrespective of currency fluctuations, and we find that at present the prices of both are tending upwards in China, as expressed in. silver, in sympathy with the decline in the value of that metal.
THE RUSSIANIZATION OF KOREA.
Whatever may happen in China within the next few years as a consequence of the footing acquired by Russia in Manchuria, there can be little doubt that the Russianiza- tion of Korea has commenced. The slow indolence of the natives of the Land of Morning Calm will soon receive very decided awakeners from the vigorous Muscovite, who, however dull and apathetic in Holy Russia, is a different creature under the spur of military discipline. Russian officers are now installed in their posts as instructors of the garrison at Seoul, and the tactics used and the words of command given are both Russian. The Chemulpo correspondent of our Shanghai morning contemporary says that, as he writes, "there come wafted on "the breeze the voices of a regiment of "Koreans trying to sing a Russian vesper hymn." From which we may perhaps be justified in assuming that care for the bodies of the Korean soldiers extends (in Russian estimation) to care for their souls also. The same authority is responsible for a report made if we remember rightly some years ago-to the effect that the Russians are showing a yearning for possession of a tract of land on Deer Island. This island lies at the entrance of the harbour of Fusan, and is not only most favourably situated for purposes of defence but possesses a supply of excellent
panese--and in the end one Power will have to withdraw. Which will it be? The Rus- sians are not wont to retire from any posi- tion of advantage unless they obtain some quid pro quo in another direction, and they have been scheming for many years to secure a footing in Korea. A collision may there- fore be looked for between Russia and Ja- pan before many years elapse unless the restraining influence of the other Treaty Powers is exercised to preserve the peace; or unless another way be found to compose their differences, namely, through Man- churia. This is unlikely, but not impossible. Unlikely, because Japan has once before been sacrificed by Russia for China, and probably would be again. Not impossible, because we believe Russi would prefer Manchuria to Korea, and it might under some conceivable circumstances suit her to secure the alliance of Japan in a contest with the latter's old antagonist. In any case, Russia is so playing her cards in the north-eastern corner of Asia that she is almost certain to attain her great object- the possession of a port in waters open t navigation the year through, to which to bring the Pacific terminus of the Trans- Siberian Railway. The vast importance of this question will govern and guide Mus covite policy in the Far East until it is secured, when perhaps Russia will proceed with her real mission as a great Power, viz., the civilisation and redemption from aridity of Central Asia.
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At Shanghai, at half-past eight on Wednes. day night, 29th September, seven sailors belong- ing to the Austrian steamer Gisela, which was at anchor opposite the Old Ningpo Wharf, mere thrown into the water through the sampan, in which they intended to go ashore, capsizing. Six of them saved themselves by hanging on to the sampan, but the other, the donkeyman, was drowned, and his body has not yet been recovered. The sampan man was carried by the tide between the steamer and the lighters that were lying alongside, one of which crushed the poor man's head, and although he was rescued from the water, he died whilst being conveyed to the hospital.—China Gazette.
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