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March 26, 1896.]
"trade of Japan of the opening of the Si- "berian Railway and the Nicaraguan Canal, "when Japan may become one of the greatest commercial centres of the world, sc etc."
That questions like these should engage the attention of the Japanese is hopeful and satisfactory. There is one feature in the present trend of thought in Japan which is less hopeful and satisfactory, but which is not noticed by Mr. LONGFORD, namely, a tendency to rely on a vicious system of protection and bounties to foster trade. As regards protection the hands of the Govern- ment are tied to a great extent by the treaties, the establishment of a conventional tariff having been made one of the terms on which treaty revision was assented to; but Japan tried to have the duties fixed as high as she could and in the case of sugar, the trade in which so closely affects Hongkong, she succeeded in establishing a rate that may possibly prove protective when it
comes into force.
Speaking of sugar Mr. LONGFORD says that there was C
a largely increased import in quan-
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CHINA OVERLAND TRADE REPORT.
doubt be a sharp conflict inflicting loss all round, and especially on Japan herself The experience of the effect of shipping bounties in other countries has not been such as to favour belief in their efficacy for the purpose for which they are intended.
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TRADE BETWEEN JAPAN AND AUSTRALIA.
In his recently published report on the trade of Japan Mr. LONGFORD speaks dis- paragingly of the prospects of a large market for Australian products being found in that country. The value of imports from Australia is still very insignificant," says Mr. LONGFORD, amounting to only $193,000 in the quarter under review, and to $520,000 for the nine months of the current year. Insignificant though it is, "however, it has been a steadily increasing one since 1891, but neither this increase nor anything in the present or prospective requirements of Japan warrants the extravagant hopes, which now seem to be "entertained in Australia, as to very speedily finding or creating a profitable "and extensive market for her productions "here. That a considerable trade may be developed between the two countries is possible, but if so its main feature will be "that of exports from Japan to Australia." An enumeration of the articles Japan can supply is given, concluding with the state- neut that if the people of Australia seek cheapness without being particular as to durability, Japan can also soon supply them with a hundred articles which they either now make for themselves or import from England or Germany, matches, boots, saddlery, harness, portmanteaux, hats, etc., all of which Japan could furnish to them at less than half the prices which they would have to pay for European prototypes. The interest of the report, so far as this section of it is concerned, lies, how- ever, rather in the remarks on what Australia can supply to Japan than vice versá. Japan has, Mr. LONGFORD says, at present absolutely no requirements that Australia could supply which are not already satisfactorily met by the much nearer United States, and it is improbable that, unless tempted by lower prices, Japanese buyers, who are, it is to be remarked, strongly attracted to the people of the United States by sentimental reasons, and also by the further consideration that they are by far Japan's best customer for all the great staples of her export trade, will ever seek in Australia articles which they can obtain in less time and equally good from the States.
tity but a decrease in value, owing to lower prices consequent on a decrease in the cost "of production of white sugar in the Hong- "kong refineries." But unfortunately the lower selling prices did not, as Mr. LONG- FORD seems to think, mean a lower cost of production, as the report of the China Sugar Refining Co., Limited only too plainly shows. Happily there has since been a change in the conditions and the trade in this important staple is again being conducted on a remunerative basis. What will happen when the revised treaty with its new tariff comes into force remains to be seen, but there is good reason to believe that by that time the increase of the China market will make up for any falling off there may be in the demand from Japan. True it has been urged that when refineries are established in Japan they will carry the war against the Hongkong re- fineries into the China market, but as to the ability of the latter to hold their own we have never had any doubt, and we find our opinion on that point confirmed by what Mr. LONG- FORD has to say on the prospects of another industry, namely, that of cotton spinning and weaving. He argues that the establishment of factories at Shanghai will close the China market to Japanese yarn and says it is not likely that much consola- tion will be afforded by the success of the Japanese companies that may be established in Shanghai. Expensive management is a weak point in nearly all Japanese "commercial undertakings, and, all other things being equal, this alone will give "the European a very substantial ad- vantage over Japanese owned companies "in China. There may be room for all at first, but if the industry succeeds more European capital will speedily be "devoted to it and unless the Japanese improve their system of management so as "to make it less expensive than the Eur- opean they may in the end have to give way. or at least be satisfied with smaller returns on their invested capital than they expect, "and can easily obtain, in their own coun- try." Similar arguments would apply in the case of the sugar industry. The Japan- ese refineries may secure an advantage in the markets of their own country, but that they will be able to compete with the Hongkong refineries in China or elsewhere we do not regard as in the least likely. Now do we think the bounty system that Japan is about to apply for the encouragement of her shipping trade will in the long run materially affect foreign | shipping, although for a time there will no
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We are not inclined to think Mr. LONG- FORD ! true prophet in this matter. He himself shows what surprises take place in trade when he says that ten or perhaps even five years ago it would not have entered into anyone's comprehension to compare the direct foreign trade of either Yokohama or Tokyo with that carried on at any of the principal ports in China, still less to venture on either hope or prophecy that the time would come, and come speedily, when the comparison might be made greatly to the advantage of the Japanese ports. Yet that has now come about. Ten or perhaps even five years hence Mr. LONGFORD may have to write in a similar strain of the trade from Australia to Japan, which, although small at present, is rapidly growing. For the first nine months of the present year, as above mentioned, it amounted in value to $520,000, and, assuming the same proportion to be observed in the concluding quarter,
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it would amount for the year to $690,000. The comparison for the last three years would then stand as follows:-1893, ̊ $319,634; 1894, $533,900, 1895, $650,000. A trade that more than doubles itself in three years appears to have favourable prospects before. it. In an interview with a representative of this journal twelve months ago Mr. E. JEROME DYER, who was then on a com- mercial mission to the Far East accredited by the Government of Victoria and the Cham- bers of Commerce of Sydney and Melbourne, gave an enumeration of Australian pro- ducts which he considered would find a market in Japan, his opinion being based on a careful investigation of Japan's growing industries. Japan, Mr. DYER said, would import Australia's wool and send back woollen manufactures; hides, skins, and leather, and return bags, boots, and other manufactures; bones, and return brushes and such like goods; hoofs, and return imi- tation tortoiseshell in the shape of combs, etc.; sandal and other woods, and return furniture and wood ornaments; pearl shell, and send back wares made therefrom; glue, and return wood matches (in the manufac ture of which glue plays the chief part); tallow, and return soaps and candles; jute, flax, and hemp (in course of time), and return carpets, cordage. etc.; noil and rabbit hair, and return hats; lead, tin, etc., and return metal wares.
It is expected, however, that wool will form the chief staple of Australia's export trade to Japan. But before raw wool can be imported in large quantities, Mr. Long- FORD say, factories in which it can be manufactured must be established, and though the present eagerness of Japanese capitalists to embark in industrial under- takings is almost feverish, there are too many fields open to them for supplying well defined wants among their countrymen to leave the least temptation to them to ven- ture on those which must be purely specula- tive. Two woollen factories at present exist in Tokyo. One is a Government under- taking, and all its output is absorbed by Government requirements for the army and navy. The second, which was origi nated a few years ago on a very small scale by a Japanese who had studied the wool manufacture in Germany, and has only re- cently been converted into a company, manufactures shawls and blankets for general sale. Its output cannot as yet be on a large scale, and it may be said, there- fore, that for all woollen goods used by them the Japanese have heretofore been entirely dependent on foreign imports.
"Australian "wool producers,' Mr. LONGFORD conti- tinues, "who now glibly talk of teaching "the Japanese to discard cotton for wool
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might also remember that, if they succeed "in their proposed effort, for every pound of "wool sent to Japan 11b. less must be sent to England or Germany, which, failing "the manufacture in Japan, will continue "to supply all the latter's requirements." The last remark is not characterised by that sound sense which marks Mr. LONG- FORD's report as a whole. Trade is not a fixed and invariable quantity, any increase of which in one direction must be com- pensated by a corresponding decrease in another. On the contrary, it is capable of illimitable expansion, and Australia need not fear that by finding a market for her wool in Japan she will lose as much in other markets. The cheap importation of wool and the establishment of manufactories for working it into cloth will encourage the use of woollen clothing in Japan, and with the growth of prosperity in that country and the general raising of
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