1941-03-06 — Page 20

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HONGKONG TELEGRAPH

March 6, 1941.

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PREPAREDNESS IN H.K.

The Rt. Hon. HUGH DALTON,

an

interview

Minister of Economic Warfare, in with Maurice Webb, answers the question

AN we expect positive and decisive results from the economic blockade of the enemy

before this year is out 7

Can

Our

Blockade

Fourth Article

RIDDLES OF

1941

Win?

"This, because they will be their control can be made self "There is one answer, Transport.

Coat is desperately needed to main- lain German exports-by rafi_ngoin and to feed her expensive 'Erentz' industries. But coal is a bulky thing to transport.

"Road transport, apart from its ability to replace bulk transport by

Facts For Germany

This is the question I took round to the Ministry of Econo mic Warfare. I put it, with many supplementaries, before some of the experts there.

driven to other devices by no supporting. What have you to Then I marched with my means so satisfactory, will add say to that?" I asked. question along the corridors of to the disorganisation of their "It might be made so if they Berkeley Square House to the distributive system.

were left free to develop their the room of the man who plans and

"The goods they produce, even synthetic processes, turn directs these mysterious but those of inferior quality, because transport systems upside down, rail, devours precious petrol and off. massive blockade operations, of the added strain on transport, and given a few years to ac- Hugh Dalton,

will fail to reach the place complish a complete economic where they are wanted."

revolution..

By this time our Economic War- fare Chief was in full stride across "This all-round interference

"But the time and freedom of the room agala. Let me give you at once the with Hitler's war machine will conclusions I formed after hear- open up the way to offensive as operation they want is just what ing the confident, fact-supported Sault in other fields," I sug we are not giving them.

gested.

"We work in close accord with "What are the real facts about the answers I got from him.

Striding up and down his the RAF. Their bombing plans essential supplies available to Hitler 1. By the end of 1941 the room-with as much vigour as are directed to the points where in Europe?"""

blockade of certain essen- if he were bustling his way we have good reason for think- tial raw materials will scri- across his fav- ously affect the quality, ourite Wiltshire and to some extent the Downs the volume of enemy produc- Minister for tion.

4 4 4

2. Long before the end of the

year--probably in the sum

Economic War- fare indicated his complete agreement with

mer-the strain on enemy this proposition. oil resources will be acute.

3. Before next winter our in-

"Exactly," he

creasing disturbance of said.

The

is: a)

Germany's industrial and blockado transport system will have vital and essen. caused a grave distribu- tial weapon. If we just sit back tional crisis.

and wait until

I submit those conclusions, we have ac

optimistic prophecies,

not as

cumulated

MR Matsuoka has given Mr Chur- but as a considered and realistic enough strength

assessment of coming events.

chill a new assurance that Japan has no Intention of Territory, which means that Japan has either abandoned her southward expansion project, or that the Japan- ese Foreign Minister doesn't mean exactly what he says. It would be nice to be able to accept the first alternative, but quite frankly the But in support of the above new and accelerated Japanese mill-affirmations about this riddle of 1941, let me give you some of tary and naval movements around.

Mr Dalton's statements to re. the South China waters do not en- courage this.

Summing It Up attacking British

machine..

ing that the maximum

I got him back to his chair and

studied reflection by this straight query:

This was als answer:

"I don't want to exaggerate Ger- in many's shortages, dustrial and

"But pre-war stucks and loot from transport di8-the occupied territories are being location will fol- used vp, and in the area under Ger- man control there is a naturat de- low.

"And so coni- ficiency of rubber, vil, cotton, copper, and certain ferro-alloys for harden- plicated is this ing steel. artifical · system on which Hitler access to in abundance.

"Iron ore, however, Germany has She has no relies to utilise Inck of bauxite, from which_alumini- the general re-um, for aircraft and to replace cop- sources of Eu-Per in non-vital places, is made. rope that our "Both these commodities have been destruction of made available by her recent con- advantage one point radi- quests, and confer an

which should not be under-estim- dates far-reach- ated."

ing

waves of disturbance right across the Continent.". Here I raised. the question of Hit- ler's "Ersatz system" to which the Minister had referred. "Can

Key Commodity

But what of oli, the key commodity

of modern war?

When I brought this question up I reminded the Minister that he was you being criticised for over-optimism on

He gave one of his high-explosive

Hugh Dalton to take the mili- tary.offensive against Hitler we shall walt in vain. Not all the answers I was

"We must strike hammer explain that more precisely?" I in this score. given can be published. For obyious reasons much of the blows at the enemy's most vul- quired.

"Well, here. Js an example. Trans- laughs. background to the blockade must nerable point. That point is the

core of his vast but not too port is a major weakness for the remain secret,

"I know," he said, "but let me securely established production Nazis," Mr Dalton replied, "The state the grounds for my optimian in

natural way into Germany is from their least sensational napect. the Western poris. All the transport

"Total peacetime consumption of "We have been striking such. routes radiate from that region. Ex-

oll In Continental Europe west of the blows for months past. We traordinary delays and complications Soviet is something like 25 million and Italy this Germany urgent war purposes the reverse route normally used nearly 11 million tons. are caused by the attempt to use for tons of from the Eastern side."

"The maximum

for European ofl production, En high es- I invited Mr Dalton to develop his timate of synthetic

production and point about "all-round pressure," "Is assuming all of Rismaila's output it suficiently complete for your pur- over six millions is available, only

asked. "Are there amounts to around 11 million tons. puse?" 1

That leaves a gap of 14 million tons between consumption and pro- loopholes in your net

"I would not say the pressure was duction, even supposing Germany can 'complete," he replied. "Some sup get hold of all existing European sup- plies will always find their way plies, through any blockade, however skil- fully devised. But I can say that the leaks are comparatively unimportan!.

I put to him my first general shall continue to do so While Mr Matsuoka is utterine query about the prospects of the mounting effect.

blockade in 1941. This was his -bland-osspirantes-i-Japanese-spokes--|

reply: man in Sulgon is ousting of the huge quantities of arms and muni- tions which Japan is sending to Thailand; að new Japanese armed

landing is made at Pakhoi; Japanese warships are reported to be sleating southwards; more transports with men and munitions are landed at

Bias Bay. Perhaps this is merely a indulgence in "war games to keep Japan's increasing overseas armies.

"I cannot volunteer a definite estimate of the probable results

with

"Blockade creates the vulner- able points, bonibs attack them, "Bombs, you might say, are of the blockade in a given time the most direct form of econo- in ignorance of other factors mic warfare. outside my control. Blockade does not work in a vacuum.

"And the results of this com- bined assault at no very distant "It cannot win the war alone. date will be seen, either in reck- "Blockade is the permanent less attempts by Hitler to force background against which mili- an early issue or in a growing tary action is set. Until we loss of his striking power. know the probable scale of mili-

from becoming bored with innclivity,tary operations, it is impossible Ersatz Basis

war effort."

but such an explanation is too com- to predict the extent to which fortable. The British Government blockade will affect the enemy's has not sent thousands of Australian and Indian troops to Malaya simply to give them an opportunity of learning how to hack a path through dense jungles or to take a course in tropical botany; wherefore it must be

assumed the British Government, de- spite, Tokyo assurances, Ա: prepared to believe that British territory in the Orlent face a very real threat.

"Allowing for these other fac- tors," I asked, "how for will blockade eventually decide the issue of victory or defeat for

Hitler?"

The Minister's answer showed

"You must remember," he went on, that the whole basis of the Nazi war organisation is artificial, or 'Ersatz.'

.

Oil-Gap

"We are not working in the dark. with the most drastic restrictions: We have a pretty good idea frown on non-military consumption, and various sources of the supplies reach allowing for the accumulation of wast ing enemy and enemy-controlled prewar stocks, that gap is too wide territory."

to be comfortable for a nation en- gaged in modern mechanised warfare!

"Everything' said of the distribu- tion and transport problem in respect of coal can be applied to oil-only

Far East Route

"What about supplies from Russia more so. and the Far Eost?" was my next

query,

"Rumanin's oll used to, be trans- ported chiefly by sea.. Now no ol! "They have built up a huge old Vladivostok problem," the Minis- we control the Eastern Mediterrane- "I suppose you have in mind' the can reach Hiler by sen, and white but complicated organism which ter retorted. "Well, you need not an. Germany must depend on con- is highly brittle. Weakness or worry much on that score. There gested rail and river transport from dislocation at any one point in are vast transport problems to be Rumania. evitably retards the operation of can get through from that area or ally be able to transport much more faced before goods in any quantity "I do not think Germany will actu-

It behoves Hongkong, and especial. his anxiety, to set his picture in every part of that organism. the Far East. Wint is passing

ly its unwieldly Chinese population proper perspective: to shake itself into a state

of

Yesterday the Tele-

"And a breakdown, with scri- through is a mere trickle.

kio.

And we

than half Rumania's total outpul.

"And don't forget we are bombing

vital rail centres incessonlly.

"We do not underestimate ous effects on Germany's mili. keep a sharp eye even on that trie- synthetic oil plants, refineries' and prepuggested that the leaders of Germany's superior war pre- tary strength, is a far from re-

graph

"I must confess that the amount

the Chinese community put their

paredness, nor discount her vast mote consequence of the all- of cotton passing by this route is evolve a scheme for the evacuation, terial. heads together in an endeavour to accumulated stocks of war ma- round pressure we are steadily one of our present problems, and will As soon as possible, of goodly por

tion of the

tlon;

alter Colony's excess popula-

to give the fullest

support to any such plan proposed by Government.

nt

orens

During lont week-end it was an nounced

that the authorities aimed settling several thousands of Chinese from Hongkong's congested on Lantau Island and Fort Shelter, and, if regarded only 44 defence measure, this has much to commend. Every encouragement is promised by the authorities to those willing

exerting."

resumed his

be dealt with.".

The Real Key

"There I think you have the real- "Transport problems," I suggested, key to your riddle of 1041. Unwise To Prophesytere the Minister to make a "seem to be altogether a major

"Our economic assault is certain to source of Nazt headaches?"

be positive very apparently positive, "I think decisive is too big in word "My own view is," said Mr few points.

"Quite right. They are all part of for 1941. But blockade will prove at Dalton, "that we should expect These amounted to this ques- the distributional crisis I spoke of least as decisive as it did in the last a long rather than a short war. tion: "How has the blockade earlier. Long before the war Ger- war."

It would be unwise to prophesy been affected by the enemy's many's railways were feeling the strain of the unnatural burden to

that we shall assume complete victories, in the summer?"

command or bring German pro-

duction to a standstill in 1941.

Using Up The Loot

My final question to Mr Dalton was to confront him with the con- which they were subjected.

elusions enumerated at the beginning "This burden Is now intensifed of this article. "Would you say they tenfold. Just think of the pre-war were far wrong?" I asked. volume of Imports by sen to Ger He replied; "You are in danger of "But I can say this. Blockade to take advantage of the scheme, but Chinese reaction has not will seriously affect the quality sation, supply and administra- oceupled territories.

"Hitler's problems of organi- many alone to say nothing of the being elarsed with me as an optim- ist, but I think-your conclusions are yet manifuated itself, Recognising of German war production, and tion have been vastly extended

near the marke," the urgency of the problem

"Of that volume a great deal is sent will also substantially interfere and complicated by his military cut off without redress, by our sea community leaders are here present- ed with a fine opportunity of prac-with its distribution-in itself a

blockade, but all the rest is thrown both leal assistance by appealing,

on to the railways of Europe. through public speeches and through vital consideration."

I asked for an illustration of the Chinese press, for a quick and willing response. The scheme

may this possibility. not be ideal, but it post the lowest tageous

of prably

and

advan-

can be desa bold method

"Well, here is an example," solving a very pressing was the reply. "By cutting off of support for It can supplics of nickel and other on Justified by suggesting on steel-hardening alloys, aa wo are Tel. 31270 alternative. The big point the

doing very effectively, the quali- Tel. 29325 Chinese coinmunity must remember

is that something has to be done in ty of the Nazis' guns, tanks and

other weapons will suffer. the matter.

conquests," was the reply.

"He obtained much loot, which

"Germany may sical rolling stock Ja quickly being used up. When

from her victims, cut down passenger It has gone he has millions more services to 30 per cent, pre-war per- consumers to support.

vices or less, but the problem re- mains, and we expect to see some in- "They want what Germany teresting results in this field in 1941. wants--rubber, oil, textiles, cop- per, tin and fats."

"Take the distribution of coal, for example. On paper Germany has I put in a reminder of the dence shows that in many places the plenty of coal. And yet recent evi- Nazl boast that Europe, under situation is serious,

TO-MORROW :

W. N. EWER 'will write on the posi

tion of Europe's re- maining neutrals and what may happen to them in the coming

year.

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