1940-03-11 — Page 16

Monday,

HONGKONG TELEGRAPH

March 11, 1940.

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All that is really in question is the probable length of time it will take to reach the inevitable end.

Not only had the chiefs of the German Armiy repeatedly warned the Fuchrer of the enormous military hazards of armed conflict with the Western Powers under existing conditions, but the German civil authorities also made the position plain.

Last April, for example, the official organ of the Reich Cham- ber of Economica published an article entitled, "How Long Could War Last?" pointing out that Germany did not command the ma terial resources to fight a long war, and that her opponents had it in their power to prevent the conflict being a short one.

WHY did Hitler disregard all this expert counsel?

Because, during the several years of preparation for totalitarian war, Nazism had so overstrained the economic system of the Third Reich that, at last, drastic measures had to be taken to divert attention from impending bankruptcy and restore the waning prestige of the Fuehrer.

He himself imagined that this might be accomplished by another Stubbs Road, lightning conquest which-assuming that Russia could be neu-

tralised the Western Powers would not dare to contest.

Hongkong Telegraph.

Monday, March 11, 1940..

Wyndham St., Hongkong Telephone: 20013

THE prefix "Special to the Telegraph" is used by the inngkong Telegraph to Indicale news. which is tricity copyright

Hitler made a mistake. Find- ing himself entangled in # life-and-death conflict which he, is powerless to shorten, he has now to face a long struggle in which the Western Powers will use every conceivable means of forcing Germany to spend her material resources without pro- fit.

will

under the provisions of the Telecommuni Meanwhile, Germany

cations Ordinance, 116, Buch newsanly be able to hold her own at bears the Indication "U" Is received in Hongkong on the date of publication by the United Press Associations, who re serve all rights and ferbid republication, either wholly or in part without previous arrangement.

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of war than bombs or torpedoes.

The Nazis have exalted pro- paganda to a position it never occupied In any other State. It has been for them a peacetime as well as a war-time weapon. They hoped with its help to win the present struggle in Europe without striking

If they applied more. psychology, understanding of the mentality of other peoples, to their propagandist enterprises, they might be more successful. But the Germans were never good at understanding others. And even as directed at their own people the Nazis' propaganda has at times shown serious cracks and deficiencies.

Wo

all by rigid economy of what materials she already has; she will not dare to risk anything until sure that every projectile will hit. At the same time, she. will have to wage a desperate `campaign to widen her basis of

supply.

will be how to maintain supplies Hitler's most urgent problems of food, petrol, iron, textiles, rubber, and non-ferrous metals like copper.

ble

by

They made prophecies:

J. L. GARVIN in the Observer: "If the absolute air supremacy we require is rapidly created, we shall come in sight of true peace and the world's deliverance within six months."

THE BRITISH WAR CABINET have based their policy "on the assumption that war will last for three years or more."

AIR-MARSHAL SIR JOHN SALMOND: "I think the war is not going to be so long as the last one, but I may be wrong."

DAVID LLOYD GEORGE, in the Sunday Express: "Three great and brave nations, armed with every device for the destruction of human life and civilisation... are about to hurl those diabolical contrivances at each other--for years." This article is an impartial survey of Germany's economic position

G. H. MORISON

-who spent many years in Berlin working for important American and British financial papers

"You have no right to any more food till you have lost another two stone."

IT is scarcely conceiva

that Germany should have been holding any large war reserves of any of these vital necessities. This is fusing to let building proceed. 300,000 able-bodied workers had evident from statements made

by German official publications, For instance, the annual re-

power

That meant that the £1,000,- | 000,000 worth of materials was

alocks

GRIN AND BEAR IT

ware.

58

riw

petrol, rubber, plastics—and, they assert, edible fast-come from # coal base.

Where the whole scheme breaks. down is that it has been found im possible 10 obtain anything like- enough of the basic raw materials to keep

all the new synthetic in- duatrics going. Staple Abre syn- thetically produced from wood_is good serviceable fabric. But Goer Ing himself, in a recent public speech, had to admit that even now Germany is being forced to 'cut fifty per cent. more timber each year than grows in her forests.

She cannot make up her deflelt by increased import because there is a world-scarcity in timber. It would take "forly to fifty years of forest-

culture," said Goering, to intercast

the timber output in Germany enough to meet present needs.

But the most catastrophie deficit is. is coal. Germany has vast coal de- posits, enough for all conceivable needs for some hundreds of years. But it is not available until it has: been mined!

Job

Industry soon ran out of coal.. When at last the railways resumed normal traffic Industry pounced on mines without any reserves.

By Lichty the conl on the dumps leaving the

Armaments and the new synthetic Industries have pushed the demand for coal until it has far outrun the supply. To make one ton of synthe

tons the petrol four

of cool aro needed two as raw material and two Af —From GRINGOIRE, Paris,

fuel. Every new power 'works erected to electrify devours.

more coul. deserted the countryside. Al- According to one recent official'

statement, Germany needs at once GERMANY held no ex- together, 300,000 milkcows had

50,000

more coal miners. By the tensive

of to be slaughtered because it end of this year she will need an In blow, but in that they were dis-port for 1934 of the State-owned foodstuffs.

Was impossible to obtain other 150,000 to keep going the new appointed.

This was revealed Inst June workers to milk them.

synthetics fuctories bank through which the German

about to be: opened, Government conducts transac- by Reich Minister for Agricul- Unable to rearm and maintain Im- Coal mining is a job to which

Darre. when, port of enough food and raw a worker must be tions with German industry- ture Walther

born. Attempts: said that when Hitler came into opening the annual agricultural materials for current needs, Ger to force

force other workers to tackle German industry held show

slowed that at Leipzig, he declared many embarked on the notorious this

their Four-Year Plan. Its main object physique would not stand the strain. stocks of raw materials and that, despite superhuman. ef- was to make synthetics and sub- To increase the output by about semi-finished products to the forts, Germany had only suc- stitutes for foodstuffs and Tow... value of 20,000,000,000 reichs- ceeded in raising from her own materials from substances which can five and a half per cent. the work- was arbitrarily lengthened from marks about £1,000,000,000 at sail about 82 per cent. of the be obtained in big quantities within a day of underground workers.

the Reich,

eight and three-quarter hours. At For example, aluminiuen can be first there was a five per cent, in- par. This was a normal state food she needed. of affairs needed to assure the In fats she was actually pro- extracted from common clay and crease in output, but this soon de- smooth running of the whole ducing only about 50 per cent, used to replace copper in electro- clined because the miners could not economic machine.

--and this included whale-oil technical

Aluminium ob- endure the long hours and evaded. tained in this way is enormously A noteworthy example was the

usly them by reporting sick or by subo- Towards the end of 1937 Der for making margarine, which is dear, but serves much the same pur- toge. manner in which the Graf Spee's Deutscher Volkswirt (the Ger- unobtainable during war.

pose as imported copper in time of Germany has not reserves of coal. man Economist), then the Darre declared that very little war, Woollen and cotton fibres An event which occurred last sum- Arst and last brush with British mouthpiece of Dr. Schacht, de- improvement could be expected could be synthesised from wood. mer proves it. warships was mishandled by clared: "We are

consuming until farming was mechanised

During mobilisation and the in- of Czecho-Slovakia QUT the most important of vasion

last: St. George's Bldg., Chater Rd.

Goebbels's department. Had such more than we are producing, and electrified, because Ger- BU all these new industrial March coal transport stopped. Mines bungling been committed by the All our reserves of raw ma- many had not enough form processes are based on the use of shut down when the dumps were TIMANTICANJOKIKOHVIVNUKA HARVAN British Government,

Unless labour. Since 1938, he said, coal should terials are exhausted.

material. Synthetic full. we change our policy we shall never have heard the end of it from head straight for disaster." the Hamburg gentleman. As it is, the errors made in announcing the closing activities of the Graf Spec gone. did more than anything else to shakej | noutral faith in the trustworthiness

of newa made in Germany.

Goebbels's guiding maximn is, "The bigger the lls the better the pro- paganda." But there is danger in A point is reached when no one can be expected to bellove. A notabla recent example was the German claim to have shot, down about forty British aeroplanes in what has been described na the largest air engagement of the war. There was not nearly that number of British 'planes in the battle.

Though the erudenesses of Ger- man propaganda are often all too apparent, the British people need to bo constantly on guard against it, Some are strangely predisposed to bollove that there must always be aomething in the malicious In- ventions or pervertions of Hamburg, "else the Germana would not have | said it.""The point is that German propagandists will say anything which they think will produce housing accommodation. · · If abroad-or at home-the desired offeet. Truth simply does not enter into the case.

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There has never since then been any chance to replenish them. For immediately after- wards Austrin and then Czecho- Slovakia were invaded-and the consumption of raw materials which have military significance immediately skyrocketed.

Worse! Both of these ter- of industrial raw materials for ritories were great consumers which Germany had to provide the supply, because when they | became part of the Reich these countries lost their chief sources of foreign currencies and hence found their imports crippled.

The famine of raw materials in the Reich then became so great that all materials had to be rigidly rationed. "National defence projects made prior claims on all available supplies, and national defence projects do not help to sustain imports; economically they are "useless."

Even the graveyards were of iron as scrap. House-build- raided to obtain meagre supplies ing almost ceased, though the masses of workers were clamouring for more and better

thoro had been any roserves, Hitler would not have risked widespread unpopularity by re-

observe, the shine on the too of the shoo protruding

Into your home, Madam!”

At Rostock the power works or-X dered more coal. They were told. there was none available. Repre- sentations were made in Berlin,, Rostock pointing out that it coal. was not forthcoming within two- days the town would be in darkness. and Industry at a standstill.

In desperation Berlin stopped all sen-going vessels in Gorman Baltic ports, ordered them to discharge their bunker coal into trucks, which. were then linked up behind passen- 'ger trains and rushed to Rostock to. keep the power works going.

The same thing happened at the Magdeburg gasworks.

modern

PAVERY one knows that:

E

petrol is the life-blood of warfare-without. It mo-. ard' torised vehicles, submarines, airplanes cease are.

To fight 4 successful war, an army must be able to use up petrol with. out giving the question of supply a single thought. if any hitch occurs: In feeding petrol to the war mam- chines, declsive, battles might easily. be lost.

Authoritative estimates made in Germany just before the war set. available stocks at about five- months" peacetime consumption, I there is big-scale Oghting, war- time consumption might rise to two.

throo or four times peace time consumption, even though rigid economy In civilian consumption lg Tenforced.

or

Certain military estimates of the petrol consumed by Germany in-the- Polish campaign suggest that the Reich used up over 40 per cent, off the available stocks! If this is true,“ PRA PLEASE Turn To Page 5.