1940-01-09 — Page 14

Tuesday,

HONGKONG TELEGRAPH

January, 9, 1940.

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Tuesday, January 9, 1940.

Wyndham St., Hongkong Telephone: 26613

TJ% predia "Special to the Telegraph“ Je nerd by the "ilongkong Telegraph to Indicate news which is sizielly copyright under the provisions of the Telecommun)- Cations Ordinance, 1936. Such BOWS ** bears the indication UP" 11 rectived in Hongkong on the date of publication by the United Press Associations, who re- serve all rights and forblú republication. elther wholly or in part without previous arrangement.

War Spending

J. M. Keynes, the English economist, has been putting up a proposition for paying for the war which, at first sight, looks like a conjuror's device for enabling everyone to hand over money to the State and yet have it safely in the banks for future

life.

The position broadly, is this: when a country is at war a great part of its effort goes into fight- ing and making wur goods, and therefore less effort is availabic

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The Scene Shifters: "For Gott's sakė, bošs, make up your mind. Which scene do we start with ?**

WHY

HITLER

HESITATES

real ray of light yet

penetrates the fog of this strange now war,

The war strategy of the Allies is, It is true, clear enough, 'and on the whole thoroughly com- mendable. It has from the directed to beginning been

avoiding large wastage of Ufc in attacks against strongly forti- fed positions. It is the strategy of siege warfare, 'not of an attempt at a knock-out blow- whether by land or air.

It is the German reaction which provides the mystery of the war.

threats piled upon Here are threats, but 50 for hardly any of the blitz-

for producing ordinary consump-action at all. Instead tion-goods-the-nations-con---krieg-expected, there is confusion

sumption must be reduced. The reduction may be effected by taking away some of its earnings by taxation, SD that it must spend less; or by raising prices, so that it does not get so much for its money. Both methods.if pressed far have their draw backs.

So Mr. Keynes suggests a third method which would counteract the tendency for prices to rise, and would yet leave the worker with some part at least of his surplus earnings credited to him for future use. Employers would deduct a cer- tain percentage of wages and in- comes from all payments due to employees and hand it over to the State. The Treasury would then deal with the accounts. Those who were liable for in- come tax would have the amount withdrawn from their credit, and the balance would be cred- iled to them at 2% per cent, to be repayable after the war.

In place of the and Inactivity. waves of attacking planes which each

one of

us anticipated, there la a spray of propaganda which dashes itself to nothingness against the rock of fact,

Why is this? What is happen- ing Inside Germany to explain this fallure of German arms oven to attempt any decisive action?

There seem to me to be four possible explanations. Here they aro:

(1) German inactivity may be a quite deliberate and considered polley of political war.

As I pointed out in one of my previous weekly articles, military and political weapons are, for Herr Hitler, interchangeable-he em- ploys whichever seems most likely to achieve his purpo50.

And it is possible that he

still considers that if Germany takes no decisive action, and particularly no decisivo action against civilian populations, Britain and France will get tired of making a war

Civil Defence Achievements 2,000,000 Shelters Now Ready

The plan reveals itself as one for compulsory lending to the State. But there is much to be Bald for the method by which the loan would be raised. GLASGOW, Jan. 8 (Reuter),--- Whether people like it or not,e mubject of a speech here by the Civil Defence organisations formed thrift must be practised during man responsible for them-Sir John the war, and hero is a way of Anderson, the Homa Secretary and simplifying it and using it for Minister for Home Securlly.

What is called a luil may be the the benefit of the State. It has full before the storm, he said, and a the advantage of preventing wise man sees that bis home is in order before the storm breaks over it, over-consumption at a time when Civil defence organizations there will be little or no un by no means excessivo, considering the tasks they may have to meet employment, and reserving con when an attack from the ale comes. suming power for a time when He was more concerned with whether It will be most neoded-after the or not they were sumelent.

By the end of this month, 2,000,000

were

war, when there will be danger steel shellers will have been pro- of severe unemployment. This vided, affording protection to over is not to say that the danger of 11,000,000 people in the most vulner-

able arena these savings being hit by post- war inflation can be ruled out.

But if a simple means can be LONDON, Jan. 8euter)-The found for directing a nation's Labour Party and Trade Union Gen- war spending on sound lines, eral Council of Finland have Invited that is just what is wanted in the Britt Labour Movement to send "a representative, tó: Finland to study Britain to-day.

the situation there,

by Francis Williams

which has no battles and will, in the end, allow it to dle of its own inertia, leaving · Germany still in possession of Czecho-Slovakia and her part of Poland.

Hitler may have studied the his- of Banctions against Italy and tory remember that after a period of not very whole-hearted action, there came time when“ Mr. Noville Chamberlain announced that Sanctions had become mid- summer madness. They were ended and Italy remained with her Abys- Binia prize.

"He may think wrongly. I con alder-that if he bides his time and does nothing very much, history will repeat itself, and that Mr. Chamberlain will make another speech and that another act of aggression will have been allowed to succeed.

(2) The absence of a Gorman attack may be due to inability to attack effectively against strong, defences.

The Air Force which has hung as a threat over Europe for 80 many years, may have been largely bluff and may not, in fact, be com- petent to undertake engagements which will involve it in a clash with Arst-rate

opponents. And the Army may sumciently equipped, have too small a proportion of fully trained men, and be unable to rely upon an efficient enough transport system to make it possible for it to risk any large engagement.

be in-

that it shall provide the cover for a major internal revolt-elther-with- in the Nazi Party itself or on the Initiative of ́a monarchist-Army group, or possibly-although at the present stage, this seems not very probable within the mass of be- wildered ordinary people.

• (4) Indecision may be ann to a brainstorm on the part of Hitler himself.

The feeling that he is being thwarted by Britain and France may, for the time being, have upset the balance of a mind never very stable.

Opposition to his will has always driven Hitler into a frenzy. If to this is added. the effect of the Munich bomb plot, it may be that the Fuehrer is in no condition to come to any decisions himself and that none of his entourage has the courage to make deciatons for him other than the makeshift dedi- sion to all in the gap with loud threats.

Which of these possible explana- tions of German inactivity is the most likely to bo correct? It is very difficult to say.

There is some evidence to sup- port each of them.

In support of the first is the fact that the one constant theme of German

in radio

propaganda English has been-apart from dis- like for Mr. Churchill-that this is an absurd war. Again and again comes the attempt to persuade the. people of Britain that none of their real interests is affected, and that It may not dare risk it for fear - it would be better for everybody if

(3) There may be dissensions so acute within Germany that the regime dare not risk a major war operation..

GRIN AND BEAR IT

inning)

By Lichty

the war were entled off without further ado. There is other evi- derico of the same kind.

Yot such an explanation does not square either with the bursts of hato propagando, or with what. seems at one time to have been very near to a decision to attack Holland.

In favour of the second explana- tion is the definito failure of the Gertan

man air attacks on Ecotland, the

very high percentage of casualties and the accumulating evidence that the German Fighters are inferior to both the British and French.

Yet it is difficult to bellova that the leaders of a great military machine like the German would admit inferiority simply on such ------evidence and without the-test-of-a-

really large scale action.

As to the dissension within Cer- many, there was evidence of that · before the Munich bomb showed the pitch to which hatred of Hitler

risen among some, at any rate, of those near to him.

And finally we have plenty of evidence over a long period of the unstable nature of the German Leader of the passions into which opposition to his will throws him and of how queerly balanced in him are periods of indecision and and de- of sudden political fair. cisión..

Reports of a contemplated at- tack, first in this direction and then in that, the mixture of con ciliation and hate in propaganda. All

that he is in one of suggest these moods of indecision now.

so we must not expect that indefinitely. Indecision to last Nor, if we are wise, will we under- cstimate the power and energy of Herr Hitler when he does make up his mind,

Here then are four posalbio ex- planations of the mystery of Ger- inany's inactivity. My own feeling is that it is something of all four which holds Germany back.

Hitler, I think, has not yet quite made up his mind that the em of victories without war is. over;" be has been shaken in his hopes of a

lightning war by his generala

reports

rts on the

comparative

strength of the German forces and still mare shaken by the knowledge of plots against him. In consequence he is at the moment in a mood of hysteria which makes decisioni impossible. - No doubt that mood will pass.-

· But, while it lasts wo gain. “Eyory day laereksės 'our' ontput of arms, every day improves further our aiready strong Air Førosi Te

And within Germany Inde- elsion at flis top must be having acrushing effect upon the morale of the mAK MERALDA

Wa'must not fall into the danzer of over-conddence, nor delude our- selves that Nasiam vill bo defeated without

rugala, pa But we may

kiery days democracy Huma