1939-05-25 — Page 6

THE HONGKONG TELEGRAPH, THURSDAY, MAY 26, 1939.

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General Elections

THESE RUMOURS of a general

election at Home are no idle talk. The two teams, for and against. face each other but the referce hus not given the signal.

Who is tho refereo? Mr. Chamberlain, and he has not spoken yot. He will decide, for he is the man who will know best when the circumstances are most; propitious for a Tory victory.

An immediate election is bound to be tied up with the interna- tional situation, and Mr. Chamber- lain knows that situation better than anyone else,

· Now consider the arguments. First, those put about by the people who want an election soon. For them, this is the Govern- ment's moment of opportunity to fight on their home ground. In- ternationally, the war in Spain, is over, and that, however much we detest the significance of a Franco

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Premier's unbending policy of non-Intervention,

Meanwhile, Britain's defences grow impressively strong, and the voice of our Motherland again be heard in the world.

cen

We have taken a stand against aggression, and made popular alliances with countries whom we have sworn to protect.

There are others who are more enutious. They argue it would be foolish to rush England' into 'a general election now.

They ask on what point would an election centre, and in reply say the international, sceno, Mr. Chamberlain's past record in particular. And that means on the policy of the Totalitarian states.

From

Labour would come

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and another stirring up of inter- national dissension.

Their second argument is also a powerful one. Mr. Chamberlain's polley did not prove at all popular when three bye-elections were held last week. Ond sent swung to Labour; and the Government's majority in the other two was sadly reduced.

recalla

Their Inst argument Napoleon's description of English- men as a nation of shopkeepers, for It turns on trade....

THE WOLVES: "See, they are trying to encircle us!”

If the Axis

understands this,

it means Peace

A

LL the face of Euro- pean politics has

by

changed in these past W. N. EWER

weeks. Whether

makes a European war less or more probable is not an easy thing to judge.

For very largely that must depend on the two Dictators; on whether they appreciate the change; on whether they revise their calculations accord- ingly.

Bo-far-their- policy-has-been- based on quite simple reckonings.

There were certain matters over which none of the other three European Great Powers (Britain, France, Russia) would, when it came to the point, be ready to face the abomination of a major war; or, at any rate, over which no two of them would be ready at the same time,

Therefore, in any of these matters either Fascist Power could do pretty much nu ít chose with- cat serious risk. The only resist- ance to be overcome would be that of a minor Power-such as Austria or Albania.

And, in fact, if the odds were made obvious and overwhelming, 'there would probably be no resist- ance at all.

They borrowed and used the maxim of Marshal Lyautes, the French conqueror of Morocco-an overwhelming display of force makes the use of force unnecessary. Czecho-Slovakia, faced by the

whole.

might of the German Army, simply must give way. · Albania, defenceless against the Italian Air Force, must aurrender, Even if they resisted, the operation** would be a comparatively minor. one.

The Abyssinian experience showed that the machinery of col- lective security would not work. The will to work it was not there. The League, as an instrument for resisting aggression, died on the day that sanctions were lifted.

From then on it was plain that. any great Power in 'Europe" could. de anything I chose to any amall Power provided that no other. great Power would feel bound, in its own interests, to interfere with What a country struggling on the

NOW Истр upswing of trade needs, they say, ise and readiness to use them.......

Hitler could feel Internal peace, free from the alarms, reasonably "confident that, in this dislocations, and uncertainties of a

́respect, 'he could count on a free general election.

hand in

in Central Europe. He knew, despite occasional guarded declarations (know, in- deed, from the vor

the very fact that they were so carefully guarded) that the large and influential part of the British Government, and a very Tiflish people, did not regard any, change in Central Europe as That, had been so directly affecting British Interests. had been so for centuries

So hold your hand, they say, and if you must have a general election, well, leave it until early next year, That is the sense of the arguments both sides. Only one thing romnina: wjiktever Mr. Chamberlain decides, he cannot prolong, a genre election beyond July next year, when the life of the present Parliament constitutionally-expires.

It waas práolically certain, tăiat "Chreat" "Britain would not deliber-,

ately decide on war for anything or anybody in the centre of the Continent.

Becondly, he knew that so long as his objectives seemed to be confined to "revision" af features of the Versalles settlement, which large sections of British opinion regarded as unwise or unjust, there would be Uttle desire to interfere.

Thirdly, he knew that British armaments were in a condition which made it very improbable that a British Government would risk war.

So he concentrated his activi- tles on the little countries to the east of Germany, he could count with reasonable certainty on meet- ing with no opposition from England that would involve war.

And if England were unwilling, France, he could be sure, would not face German war without her partner. Nor, indeed, was France

herself likely to bo precisely enthusiastic about plunging into

on a mid-European issue. The French, indeed, had their alifances; but France had always thought rather of the Foles and. the Czechs as her allies in a Franco-German conflict, than of herself na bound to march to their assistance.

Still, there were the alliances. And because of them Hitler moved warily and cleverly. He tried (not unsuccessfully) to shake the Franco-Polish alliance by separato dealings with the Poles

It was not until Czecho-Slovakia had passed out of the French into the German orbit and the alliance had become a dead letter that he passed to the foal dismember- ment and conquest of that un- happy country. By taking two bites at the Czech cherry he made. sure of French neutrality,

Lastly, there was Russin to be considered.

Britain and from fighting to prevent German expansion eastward, might even feel relieved that the pressure was being directed East Instead of West.

France might shrink

other

But would not Russia the ou Eastern: Power-feel compelled to check, the initial stages of a drive which, continued. must threaten her own borders: of which, indeed. the Ukraine was one of the avowed objectives?

Here the calculation

was three-

To-day's Thought- THAT should be considered

long which can be de cided but once.

-

---PUBLILIUS SYRUS.

·(Famous . Komen wie who was

་

fold, First, that the accumulating evidence of a strong isolationist trend in Russian policy was co- Hable and that the Soviet Union

intended to defend its own frontiers but not to let itself bo drawn into war unless they were Betually violated.

Second, that the condition of the Soviet Army and Air Force was such

that,

though immensely strong for defence, they were not capable of a large-scale offensive beyond their own borders.

Third, that anti-Russian and anti-Bolshevik feeling in the East European States was so strong they would be loth to see the Red Army in their territory even as an ally.

So, by and large, Herr Hitler was able to calculate with fair certainty that he could go adven- turing in Austria and Czecho- Slovakia and Memel without very serious danger of European war,

The

calculations then Were sound enough. But they are no

longer sound. A change has come over the scene which makes them no longer valid.

First, it has at last been borno in on the minds of British and French statesmen that the "Axis Powera" aro in quest'of no limited; objectives, but are aiming at nothing less than the domination of the whole Continent and of its

seas.

Secondly, they have been forced to realize that no reliance can bo placed on their assurances or on

made any arrangements

with them: that, like the "Torles" in the 17th century epigram, they "know no argument but force."

Thirdly, their activities are now bringing them

Very near to threatening areas which have always been, and must always be, regarded as areas of vital concern to the British

Fourthly, and French Empires. the rapid pace of British and French rearmament has already changed the 'balance of military power. It is now the considered. and very confident judgment of those who know best the condition of the British. French, German and Italian forces and "war-potentials" that though war would undoubtedly be a very horriblo business. an Anglo- French victory within fairly short time would be a foregone con- clusion.

So that whereas until now Herr Hitler and Bignor Mussolini have been able to reckon with reason- able Surences on committing aggressions without, danger of major war, they are now very near to, or actually at, the point at. which new aggression means not only danger, but something vory near certainty of a major war ing 'whicti'... would be decisively

they defeated.

If they draw, and net on; the sensible conclusion, then Europe will find peace again. If not, then

The most beautiful will in the world

"All This I Leave To You"

ALONE, 1 man died in a

workhouse, and this will was found in the pocket of his ragged sult. By worldly stan- dards he was poor, but when you have absorbed the exquisite beauty of his words and benefit- ed from his deep and peaceful philosophy, you too, will realise just how rich this poor man really was.

CHARLES LOUNSBERRY, being

Df sound and disposing mind and memory, do hereby make and publish this my last will and testament in order to distribute. my interest in the world among succeeding men.

That part of my interest which i

known in law as my property, being inconsiderable and of no account, I make no disposition of. My right to live, being but a lle catate, is not at my disposal, but, these things excepted, all else in the world

now proceed to devise. and bequeath.

Item: 1 give to good. fathers and mothers, in trust for their child- ren, all good little words of praise and encouragement, and all quaint pet names and endearments; and charge sald parents to use them Justly, but generously as the deeda of their children shall require. Item: 1 leave to children inclu- sively but only for the term of their childhood, all and every flower of the field" and the blos soms of the woods, with the right to play among them freely accord- ing to

the custom of children," warning them at the same time against thistles and thorns, And I devise to children the banks of the brooks and the golden sands beneath the waters thereof, and the odoure of the willows that dip therein, and the white clouds that

float high over giant trecs. And I leave the children the long. long days to be merry in, in a thousand ways, and the night and the train of the Milky Way to wonder, at, but subject neverthe- less, to the rights hereinafter given to lovers.

Item: I devise to boys, jointly, all the useful idle felds and commons where ball may be played, all pleasant waters where one may swim, all snow-clad hills where one may coast, and all streams and ponds where one may fish, or where, when grim winter, comes, one may skate, to hold the same for the period of their boyhood. And all meadows, with the clover

blossoms and

butterfles thereof; the woods with their beauty; the squirrels and the birds and the echoca and strange noises, and alt distant pieces, which may be visit- ed together with the adventures there found.

And I gife to sald boys each his own place it the fireside at night, with nil pletures that may be seen in the burning wood, to enjoy with- out let or hindrance or without any excumbrance or care.

ltem: do lovers. I devise their

imaginar world, with

whatever they my need, as the stars of the sky, the red roses by the wall, the bloom of the hawthorn, the riveel strain of music, and "aught olse they may desire to lure to each oth the lastingness and beauty of hele love, b

item/ To young men jointly be

quath all the boisterous, Inspiring zaprta of rivalry,+ sod. 1. givesto NEPLEASE Tum: To:Paga