1937-11-13 — Page 8

THE

PACKARD

8

THE HONGKONG TELEGRAPH, Saturday, NoVEMBER 11, 1937.

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F

OR the purposes of this article I #m going to ask you to take two things for granted.. The first is that there will bo a next slump. The second is that its coming is not very far off.

I cannot prove either state- ment. And, indeed, the first is much more probably true than the second. Unless something happens which would be quite unprecedented in economic his- tory, the present period of re- covery will be followed, some time, by a recession.

As for the second statement, nobody knows for certain when the recession will set in. But there is a growing body of expert opinion which dates it for carly 1936.

Do you want to see a symp tom of the end of recovery? Then look at the diagram. The curve shows what has been hap- pening since the end of 1931 to the building industry. It in based on the published figures of the building plans approved by a large number of local au- thorities.

Plans, of course, are approved before the house is built, and if you see a house going up, the plans for it may have been ap-

ngo, or even carlier.

Hongkong Eelegraph. proved as much as twelve months

SATURDAY, November 13, 1937.

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thoughtful' persons becomes so year. convinced, of the righteousness

the

20

"BUILDING PLANS

1933 1934 1933 1936 1937

199317100)

How To

the Next

Stop Slump

and

public ways.

Why should not a Ten-Year Plan be drawn up for the re- building of the main roads, at a cost of £80,000,000 a year? PACIFISM ARRIVES

The curve has therefore been

Then, in any year when unem- drawn to show against every

ployment was heavy, a year's in- Hongkong is about to meet month the amount of plans ap-

alalment of the programme could formally and face to face some

proved in the preceding twelve pared and be rendy to start at tion would help to solve the un he put in months.

hand. When trade of the leaders of the pacificist

once when the unemployment employment problem?

revived, the programme could be movement who are intent upon

These figures of plans approv- figures start rising.

I have suggested, then, a new postponed. In this way road Forming a local Group of the ed are, for a variety of reasons,

What form should the plans 500,000 house building a poor guide to the actual amounį

pro building would be combined with Peace Pledge Union. As a gar of building. But they are the take? Obviously no one person gramme in addition to what is lump prevention. rison of importance and a naval best guide we possess. And the slump prevention. But there are half for slums and half for over-

can present a whole plan for being done at present-roughly But where is the £80,000,000 the Colony may be disposed, in curve has definitely turned down- two things that could be done, crowding. There is nothing in a year to come from? Surely I each of which would be a power the least unorthodox about this. am not suggesting, after the ex- the main, to ignore the effort of ward.

ful blow in the battle, and each It is merely the continuation of perience of the last Labour Gov- well-meaning men to enlist sup- Building has been the back of which is worth doing for its what the Government has been ernment, that the Budget should port for the pledge: "I rebone of British recovery, The own sake, entirely apart from doing for years past, merely the be unbalanced to provide work nounce war and I will never sup volume of employment in the its merits as a slump preventer. anticipation of what they admit for the unemployed? port

sanction another building industry is still at

In two words, these two sug the future.

will be necessary some time in record levels. But it begins to That would be unjust and unin- look extremely probable that gestiona Arc HOUSES telligent. When any group of there will be a falling-off next ROADS.

The only novelty in my sug- we can unbalance the Budget The answer might be that if Building houses is the most Kestion is that instead of post- for rearmament we can do it for

poning the plans until the vague Everybody would agree that obvious and direct way of pre- future, they should immediately the prevention of unemployment, and rightness of its cause that if the next slump can be pre- venting a slump in building em- be got ready for prompt applica. But as it happens, this road it will crusade for it, and when vented,

We are already ap- tion when the slump shows signs

building programme can be or even mitigated, it ployment. thousands are converted to its would be a good thing to try. proaching the exhaustion of the of coming. If private housing is financed in the soundest of sound belief, it would be folly to dis- And any economist will tell you private demand for houses by

on the down-grade, miss the object of the campaign that the earlier you start with people who can afford to pay for housing should be on the up-

To begin with, if £80,000,000 unattainable, imbecit your preventive action, the bet them--But there is still un-en- grade.

roads in a were spent on the ormous need of houses for the ter chance of success you have. less fortunate for whom build- "poppy-cock." Yet that is pre-

The time to start, then, is now. ing societies and insurance com- ROADS. It has been proved over ment in the dole. Let us esti

The second suggestion is for lump year, there would be con- siderable savings to the Govern- eisely the reaction of varions

We should get all our plans pre- panies cannot cater.

and over again that a large pro mate these, conservatively, at types; types, let it be said, vary-

portion of our road accidents is ing in their narrow-mindedness

due to the bad quality of the did not find this money for road $20,000,000. If the Government and bigotry exnetly in ratlo to argument of the pacifists. On the positiveness of their con- the contrary, one is inclined to The present slum clearance roads.

building, it would have to find it feel that the demnation. One might as well Union is attempting to run be built over 300,000 new houses by ment pronouncements to go on. would be no worse off than it Here again we have Govern for the dole.. So the Budget Peace Pledge programme, though it will have argue that Euclid was a fool before there is any path for it to the end of 1938, does not by any Before Mr. Hore-Belishn left the would be in any case. cause one does not understand walk. It is immediately defeat-means solve the slum problem. Ministry of Transport he laid geometry; or that there is no ed by the political structure of Another 300,000 houses at the down a standard specification taxation is increasing at the rate Secondly, the yield of motor good in Muhammedanism be- the world.

very least could be built in re for a main road, including dual of about £4,000,000 a year, and cause one is a Christian or

placement of the slums.

carriageways, cycle tracks Pacifism, moreover, is anta-

is going to go on increasing. Jew, as to condemn the ideal of gouistic to the structure of the

Then there is overcrowding, and other such details.

roundabout or flyover crossings

It would be the soundeat of pacifism without giving it at League of Nations. It is not Under the present plans, some- Henst a hearing, if not a little just a belief; it is an attitude. thing like 200,000 houses are to We shall not be able to say revenue to pay the interest and finance to pledge this increase in

thought..

The League of Nations is a be- be built to relieve overcrowding that our roads are satisfactory, other service charges on large lief and a fucl. And on that (which is not technically, the that they are safe for the public capital loans for road-building. The very word "pacifism" is fact, though much fault can be same thing as the slum problem). to travel on, until every main Each year's increase would casi- like a red ray to a bull to a good found with the foundations on Here we have an official state- road has been rebuilt to the ly pay the charges on a loan of many people. Just as "bolshev-which it, too, is supported. It is ment by the Minister of Health standard specification.

the £60,000,000.needed to make ism" or "socialism" conjure up possible to build with some hope that the present programme is The cost of that would be up the year's road-building pro- thoughts of bearded anarchy an instrument to prevent war. 200,000 houses will

of permanence. The League is only a beginning. Since another something like £800,000,000-an gramme.

be needed enormous sum, but little more and bombs and bloody knives, so Pacifism is a movement to some time, why not build them than half of what we are spend- "pacifism" brings to many minds abolish war. Surely they can-jat a time when their construc- ing in five years for rearmament. the picture of shrinking cowar-not be anything but complement- dice. One of the greatest paci-ary, since, in effect, they have a fists was the late Brigadier-common goal.

as

от

A

BULLS AND INNERS

.0 0

From the Office Butts

General F. P. Crozier, C.B., Pacifism as a principle may C.M.G., D.S.O., whose conspicu-make appeal; but pacifism in ous record in battle made him present day practice makes immune from any accusation Horry, showing if it is carried to its ultimate end. It will touching his personal gallantry, be hard for any man to though it did not protect him resist striking a blow in defence from attack on other scores of his home and his native coun-' The point is that to shut eyes try. if either is invaded. But The best way to stop this and stop cars against any ideal.pacifism preaches non-resistance, check-to-check dancing in to newspaper heading. The Istic or other argument is often basing its argument on the sup- marry the girl.

position that without resistance

D

a confession of weakness, more there can be no war. That does often of petty prejudice, and not mean there' will not be Some of Hongkong's lady sometimes snobbery. The mere slaughter and horror and fact that one feels a distaste for shame of subjugation to the will drivers seem bent on achieving la certain subject or doctrine of a conqueror.

motoriety.

the

Nevertheless, there is a grain

cannot excuse a policy of what might be termed self-isolation- Jism or insulationism. Too many of good within the Peace Pledge

The week's, new book. A

are prone to emulate the ostrich Union; more than a grain, per-Knight in Kowloon by Ella and bury their heads in the sand.aps. It will be interesting to Vanolge. They miss so much that is worth 800 how Hongkong will react to the effort to "achleve a com- at least passing observation.

At munal perce mentality !"*

a. D

In the United States they call

All this does not mean that first glance this would appear them "Dental Parlours." Why the public should accept the very slony ground,

not Drawing Rooms?

This would mean, of course, that the Chancellor of the Ex- chequer would not get the in- crease in the yield of motor taxa- tion for his Budget. But there would be no reduction in the amount he is now getting from car owners. And £80,000,000 a year would be found without un- balancing the Budget.

These

"Car Turns Turtle"

says

pass

aengers, were, of course, in

the

Houp.

two suggestions by themselves would not be enough pression, if one, should come to deal with a really severe de- along. But they are the sort of thing that is needed if we are to do anything about slump pre- vention.

Q C

We notice that the Navy is to have longer hammocks. They will still "Double up" in the mornings, however.

口 口

At Home there's a movement ta, prohibit drivers from drink- ing. What about stopping drink- ers from driving?

There may be objections to these specific suggestions. But the main point is that these plans well on the way to completion. or some others should now be The one thing that is inexcusable is to put off the making of plans. until the next slump has arrived..

Geoffrey

Crowther