1936-12-07 — Page 22

THE HONGKONG TELEGRAPH. MONDAY, DECEMBER

FROST FAIR ON THE THAMES IN 1683

There you may see the coaches stefflly run,

As beneath the ice were waters fione, And shoals of people everywhere there be, Just like the herring in the brackish sea.

And there the quaking teatermen will stond ye, Kind master, drink you beer, or ale or brandy; Walk in, kind sir, this booth it is the chief," Another cries, "itera, master, they but scoff yo Here is a dish of famous neio-made coffee."

"A

The art of printing hero was to be seen, Which in no former așa had ever been; And goldsmiths' shops well furnished with plate: But thep must dearly pay for't that would ha' it. And coffee-houses in preal numbers teera Scattered about in this cold-freezing fair, There might you sit down by a char-cole fire, And for your money have your heart's desire, A dish of coffee, chocolate or tea.

Woodcut and doggieri verses from an old broadsheet to the Britial: Musentin.

H, the good Gabriel he has been at It again, then!" So they are saying over In France just now. The refer- ence is not to the reputed "chief of the angelic guards," but to the worthy Abbé Gabriel, famed on the other side of the Channel as one of the most In- trepid long-shot weather fore- casters of all time.

This reverend scientist holds that the behaviour of the earth's atmo- sphere is controlled by combined solar, lunar and planetary action, and he has calculated that all the astronomical factors which could conceivably influence it coine to exnetly the same conjunction and produce the same effects at inter- vals of 744 years.

♡

The Abbé believes, too, that every 372 years (hair of the main period) the leavenly bodies Interact closely enough to bring about approxi- mately similar weather conditions here' bolow.

Now, in 1504-05 Europe auffored a winter of historic severity. From Just before Christmas unill early

[To-day's Thought"

NATURE the master of talents: genius is the master of Nature.

-J. G. HOLLAND,

in March there was almost unlater- rupted frost. Even the biggest and swiftost rivers were ice-bound, and the Thames became, in the words of a contemporary diarist, "as solid as a rock."

Snowdrifts put a stop to all trame; corn supplies ran short; cattle and sheep perished by thou- sands for lack of fodder; and, alte- gether, Europe had a thin time in That was inore sensea than one, 372 years ago. Therefore, arguos the Abbé, we should get much the same from the coming winter.

་

Unluckily for him, there is no copyright in these theories, He was forestalled in his prediction by another French scientist, M. Cas- alopéc, who got in his warning six months ago. This gentleman de- voted a whole book to detailing the Expresen partitor with 1ted 65 tip went so far as to prophesy that the frost will last for 08 days, and that January 7, 1937, will be the coldest of them all.

These soothsayings have given rise to a good deal of apprehen- sion on the Continent, and even here in England many people are feeling a little uneasy about them. The last thing we want just now la a" really hard winter. We have been spared one since 1928-20. when, according to an official esti- mate made by the Minister of Labour, the severe weather was . responsible for an fncrease of be

tween 140,000 and 160,000 names on the registers of Britain's em- ployment exchanges.

Let

examine tho alleged grounds for anxiety: It is easy enough to test the Abbé's claims.

Soven centuries ago thermome- tern and barometers had not been invented, and no regular weather records were kept, but if we hunt through ancient

diaries And archives we shall come across oc- casional entries which will serve We find, for in- our purpose. stance, that England endured a great frost in 1154, and another, Insting from Christmas to Feb- ruary 2, in 1170-77,

According to the Abbé Gabriel's theory, there ought to have been a recurrence of great frosts in 1008 and 1920-21-744 years on- wards from 1154 and 1170-77. There was, in fact, nothing of the sort.

The winters of 1897-98, 1298-99, and 1920-21 were all pre-

dominantly mild

Clearly, then, the weather acOS... not repeat itself with any ap proach of regularity after 744 years. How about 372 years-half as long?

Delving into the musty manu- scripts once more, we learn that in 1541 there was so great-h drought that the river Trent be- enmo a straggling brook, and that the Thames was dry at London Bridge except when the sea water came up at high tide. Both in that

Will it be a HARD WINTER?

by E. L. Hawke

(Secretary of the Royal Meteorological Society)

year and in 1540 the summer

was extremely hot and dry.

over the world that we can best. attack the problem of foreshadow-

Did the same thing hoping the general character of futura"

'pen 372 years later? It did not. In 1912 we had one of the weltest summers within memory; in 1913 the period from June to August, though

de deficient in rain, was de- cidedly cool.

In this country, meteor- ologists and no need to con- corn themselves about the moon and planets when try- ing to get a ne on the trend of coming weather, "O, swear not by the moon, the inconstant moon.". says Jullet in Shakespeare's play. She, in the way some women have, was judging by ap- pearances and jumping to conclusions. It is really the sun that should be accused of inconstancy: the moon's Beeming changefulness is, of course, merely a matter of light and shadow. Just as large scale variations in solar activity were almost certainly responsible for the alternating "ice ages" and warm periods of prehistoric take. so minor variations in the samo factor must be invoked to account for year-to-year weather vagaries at the present day.

Our luminary is subject to more or less severe internal disturb- ances, affecting its output of radiant energy, and there is no doubt that the earth's atmosphere is profoundly influenced thereby. Among the outward symptoms of functional interior trouble, with the sun as with ourselves, are spots on the face.

It is by careful and long-con-. unucu study,of this solar eczema In its relation to the weather all

seasons..

At Irregular intervals, averaging just over 11 years, the sun quietens down. Inside, and becomes nearly free from facial eruptions. Buch periode Art "called- “gunspot...**** minima." Biatistical analysis shows that the fourth winter after a sunspot minimum is particularly liable to be more or less rovere in England. This has happened nine times out of twelve since 1800; In the remaining three instances the general level of temperaturo from December to February was about normal.

Now, there was a sunspot mini- mum lata in 1933, and as the com- ing winter is the fourth since then. the odds are 3 to 1 that it will be on the cold side. The memorably bitter war-time winter of 1910-17 came at this phase of the solar "cycle," and so did the historie winter of 1813-14, when the fast Frost Fair" was held on the ice- bound Thames, and London's aver- ago temperature was below the freezing-point for three months on

ond.

There is ono chance in six that the approaching season may bring us something quite out of the ordi- nary in the way of shivers; but there is one chance in four that it will be just about normal.

Most probably, we shall have the usual medley of cold and mild weather, with the former in the as- cendant. For the alarmist warn- ings blazoned abroad by the French prophets of woe let us preserve a polito scepticism.

OUR BRITISH CROSSWORDS

1936.

RAJPUTAK

Q-BRITISH INDIA-APCAR AND EASTERN & AUSTRALIAN LINES MAIL AND PASSENGER-STEAMERS.

Taking Cargo For

Straits, Java, Burma, Ceylon, Red Sea, Egypt, Istanbul, Grance, India, Persian Gult, Mauritius, Levantine Poris, Europe. East and South Africa, Australia, PENINSULAR & ORIENTAL. FORTNIGHTLY DIRECT ROYAL MAIL STEAMERS UNDER CONTRACT WITH ILM, GOVERNMENT

"All vessels may call at any ports on or off the route, and the route and all sailings are subject to change or deviation with or without notice." PENINSULAR & ORIENTAL SAILINGS

8.8.

JEYPORE RANCHI COMORIN +*SOMALI

RAJPUTANA RANPURA *BANGALORE

•

Cargo only.

Front

Toru Hour Host

About

Destination

4,000 8th Dec. Bombay, Karachi and Persian Gulf, 17,000 12th Dec. Bombay, Marseilles & London, 15,000 20th Dec. Marseilles & London.

7,000 2nd Jon. Marseilles, Havre, London, Hambur

Rotterdam, Antwerp & Huil 17,000 9th Jan. Bombay, Marseilles & London. 17,000 23rd Jan. Bombay, Marseilles & London.

0,000 30th Jan. Marseilles, Havre, London, Hamburg,

Rotterdam, Antwerp & Hull.

3 Calls Tangler.

+ Calls Casablanca. All vessels may call at Malta.

Frequent connection from Port Said for Passengers and Cargo to Istanbul, Piraeus, Smyrna and other Levant Ports by steamers of the Khedivial Mall Steamship Co.

BRITISH INDIA-APCAR SAILINGS

SANTHIA TALAMBA TALMA SINDHANA SHIRALA

8,000 19th Dec. 8,000 2nd Jan.

10,000 10th Jan, Singapore, Port Swettenham, Penana,

Rangoon & Calcutta. 8,000 30th Jan.

8,000 13th Feb.)

EASTERN & AUSTRALIAN SAILINGS

NANKIN NELLORE TANDA

TALAMBA RAJPUTANA TALMA

7,000 2nd Jan.

7,000 30th Jan.

7,000 5th Mar.

Monita, Rabaul, Brisbane, Sydney,

Melbourne & Hobart,

SAILINGS TO SHANGHAI & JAPAN

0,000 20th Dec. Amoy, Shanghal & Japan. 17,000 11th Dec: Shanghai & Japan. 10,000 th Dec. Amoy, Shanghai-&-Japan.

17,000 25thTM Dēc, Shurghat ̈& Japan. 4,000 26th Dec. Shanghai & Japan. 7,000 3rd Jan. Shanghai & Japan.

RANPURA BANGALORE NELLORE

SIRDHANA

8,000

• Cargo only.

7th Jan. Amoy, Shanghai & Japan.

All dates are approximate and subject to alteration without notice. For further Information, Passage, Freight, Handbook, etc., apply to

The Agents.

Phone 27721

MACKINNON, MACKENZIE.CO

P&O BUILDING, CONNAUGHT ROAD. CENTRAL, HONGKONG

TRAVEL

EMPRESS

CONSIGNEES' NOTICES.

N. Y. K. LINE (NIPPON YUSEN KAISHA.)

From EUROPE and STRAITS. The Steamship,

"HAKOZAKI MARU,” having arrived from the above ports, Consignees of Cargo are hereby in- formed that their Goods are being landed and placed at their risk in the Hongkong and Kowloon Wharf and Godown

Company's Godowns at Kowloon, whence delivery may be obtained.

Goods not cleared by the 12th De- cember, 1938, will be subject to rent. Damaged packages raust be left in the Godowns for examination by the Consignee's and the Co's representa- Lives

on any Tuesdays and Fridays at 238 pm, within the

free storage

p.m.

For the examination of

Antiable goods, the consigar

nees must arrange for n Revenue Oficer to be present.

All claims must

bo presented with-

in ten days of the steamer's arrival here, after which date they cannot be recognized.

No claims will be adgitted after the goods have left the Godowns,

No fire insurùnce has been effected, NIPPON YUSEN KAISHA.

· Hongkong, 5th December, 1936.

Christmas

Advertising

•

Advertisers' requiring; addi- tional space In the "South China Morning Post and "The Hongkong Telegraph during the month of December, are requested to make their reservations as early as possible. In the Interests of advertisers, we hope to distribute advers tising evenly throughout the month, and in order to assist. wy co-operation Is invited;

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7th Doc. 6th Jan. 6th Feb.

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Dog B'Kong Leaves H'Hong Leaves Manila Due Sydney

*8 Dec.

2. Jan, 1-Feb. 8. Mar,

ACRO88

1 May indicate the presence of

-spirit. 3 Twins and

and twins and then some. Yes, brat gives away the secret thus.

Commion or garden bird.

:

10 An essential yesset in a brewery, 11 Foam.

12 The fellow who gives a lot of

check

10

In It the equivalent of O-Kay?

17 A character in Ava of Shakes-

peare's plays.

18 Good, this, for the handsome, 21 When weeds have a rest.

23 Bounce.

24 Soft for a musician.

25 Mark the place.

28 The last post?

28 Has A.1 Latin, though he doesn't

speak it.

30 Give dad anything, that will make it continuous (three → words, 3, 3, 5),.-. 91. It is le minus one letter.

DOWN

1 L. bores rubes (anag) (two

words, 6, 5).

2 Plays about like Staffordshire

workers.

3. A quadrangle without any angle,

15 Dec.

18 Deo..

7 Jan.

9: Feb. 9 Mar.

14 Jan 18 Feb. 10 Mar.

16 Jan

10 Feb.

19 Mar.

4 Apr.

S

AUSTRALIAN-ORIENTAL LINE, LIMITED.

Sailings aubject to alteration without notice. For Freight or Paniago, apply to:- wat

Butterfield G Swire, Agents-Hong Ko

Telephone 303323

China Japan

4 It's very weak, put a drop in.

13 Members of many churcher,

14 It seems clear enough, why

bring in Scotland Yard?--

15 Stock

19 Very neat this, you'll qdmli, for

a service attendant.

20 Cook by heat with water.

21 Showing an Inclination in a certain direction, and Quishing

suitably.

22 Changing his post as a Greek

teacher.

20 Mend the holes and awear in a

ladylike-way,

27 Sweet or aŭd.

28 This one lands right in the

middle.

Saturday's Solution.

ĮMOULD POISONING.

LEADING BLUCHER

8 OMF PIECE ABLE

|_ DOING |SE QEDER IN KOPROFE

GLUTTON SCREW TAI CHTEN HITONTE NER

UNES B PR, FIXTURE■ ALABAMA

Fruit, roughly triangular in}} UMT■| B00TY ON IG

section,

8 and most of it then is this inje

No one could call her fidy; she ———po÷often-has-n-litter-about her.

9 Asking for this South Sea Island

- reminds one of Oliver Twist.

8T DE TRACE DATED,

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