1902-11-17 — Page 3

THE NEW TREATY.

OPINIONS OF A SPECIALIST.

The criticism of Mr. A. R. Colquhun, the well known nuthority on Chinese affairs, of "China in Transforination" &c, on the new Commercial Treaty is so full of home truths and timely warning. that we reproduce it in extenso as it appeared the other day in a leading London daily:

A week ago I wrote of the new Chinese Commercial Treaty as foredoomed to failure, Since then (after a very significant "hitch") it has been signed, and promptly we hear pens of delight and confient predictions as to China's commercial future. Unpleasant as the office of "wet blanket must always be, it is impossible to refrain from pointing out that these views are, to say the least, too sanguine, unless we are to believe that in the act signing Sir James Mackay's treaty Chinese officials were regenerated and obtained new fearts. Even if this were the case I think I have shown that many practical difficulties would have to be overcome before the treaty could be carried

out.

Sir James Mackay, with an optimisin which is no doubt largely due to his previous inacquaintance with China and the Chinese, declares that likin js practi- cally abolished throughout the length and breadth of the Celestial Empire, and that the very word is wiped out of the language. The

THE HONGKONG TELEGRAPH, MONDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 1902,

are niere creatures of the Manchus, and desire nothing more than to sind, well with their masters and feather their own neats, ~ There is a small minority of genuinely conscientious Chinese who do their duty according to their lights, such as the Yang-ize Viceroys, who happen to be persone grata at Court, because of their proved loyally to the person of the Dowager Empress. Sheng does not belong to this honour- able minority. He has won his position by other means than upright dealing and strict loyalty, and he is the more anxious to curry favour at Court by getting what he can, for the insatiable-Manchus.

There is no doubt that there are rejoicings at Pekin, as in London, over the conclusion of the treaty, but for rather different reasons. It must be remembered that by this treaty the Chinese Government is getting what it has long fought for-a very substantial increass on foreign duties, and, moreover, the Europeans, have shown the Chinese a method whereby they can secure that these duties should be practically controlled by the Central Govern ment as likín never could be. Under extreme financial pressure they would have been pre- pared to promise any guid pro quo in return for such a way out of their difficulties.

AIMS OF THE GOVERNMENT.

It certainly seemed at one period of the negotiations as though the obstinate foreigner were going to spoil everything by insisting that the extra revenu should go intact to the latter may well be the case, but as to the former provinces. A little skilful manipulation, how

is not the successful negotiator just “a little previous" In the first plice, the treaty has not yet been agreed to by the other Powers, and China emphasised the point that their consent is absolutely essential before likin is abolished. As for the Chinese themselves, it woull have beef more correct to any that likin is, or shortly may be, technically abolished, and even that would have been a legitimate source of satisfaction to the negotiator of the treaty,

There has been throughout a suspicious re adiness on the part of the Chinese to comply with the proposals of Great Britain. We learn that Sir James Mackay was able to convince the Chinese authorities that the treaty would be for the good of China; in short, that in the course of a few interviews he was able to do what no other man has ever succeeded in doing persuade the Chinese to take an European view of commerce, taxation, and Snance. This

is the more remarkable because the new point of view involves not only opening the country to Europeans, but giving them a much larger share of the control of interṇål affairs.

"THE CHANGE OF HEART."

This change of heart was, we are to believe, first worked on Sheng and the Yangtze Viceroy, and then through their representations on Pekin. While I iu Kun-yi and Chang Chih. tung are probably really convinced that some more liberal policy is necessary to rehabilitate the finances of the Central Government, and while they also recognise that they are not in- dividually in a position to run counter to Pekin in any case, it must be a'matier for serious doubt to anyone who is acquainted with Sheng if his. conversion was anything more than skin deep. As for Pekin there seems to be a sort of im.

pression in this country that the Manchu Party, which is the Government, is, like Covern- ments in Western countries, genuinely anxious to promote the welfare of every part of their Empire. This is a delusion. The Manchus simply want to get as much money as they can, and they cars nothing for the well-being of the people they rule. Too many Chinese officials

ever, and Pekio has arranged this matter to its own satisfaction; confident that, once the new. regulations are in force, it can square matters- with the Viceroys, of whose loyalty it is 'assured.

As now settled the new salt tax and the new surtax are to be he'd by the Imperial Chinese

Customs to the order of the Provincial Viceroys

and Governors "in proportions arranged, be-: tween them and the Board of Revenue." The maritime customs, on instructions from the Provincial Viceroys, are to remit to Pekin, the equivalent of former likin contributions, as well. as the amount due on the 1898 Loan. Of course, the Board of Revenue is tantamount to the Imperial Government, and there is no pos sibility of checking its decisions. The intro- duction of the maritime customs, with their foreign personnel, is very popular in this coun- try, and is supposed in some way to guarantee the smooth and effective working of the arrange- ment. It is forgotten, however, that this body has no real control of any funds. All moneys go direct to the native banker, and the maritime customs officials are merely accountants and make their returns to the Board of Revenue.. There is a vaguely worded clause in the treaty rel.ing to the supervision of "pative customs by a member or members of the maritime cus- toms staff. It is difficult to see how this is to

be carried out unless a network of Imperial maritime customs offices is to be spread over the country and unless their powers are greatly extended,

Altogether the Chinese Government can congratulate itself that the new treaty would afford it an increased revenue and a wider

Otherwise they would not have made even the paper concession of the abolition of likin, for that has been for half a century the most valu- able asset in a possible bargain

The mistake has been in ignoring past history and concluding a new treaty while allowing China to disregard old ones To. quote the late Alexander Michie, "The Treaties of Nanking, 1842, and of Tientsin, 1858, provided for the transit of British goods throughout the Empire on payment of a fixed charge. But, in securing exemption from arbitrary imposts in the interior, the Treaty of Nanking signally failed; that of Tientsin had proved equally ineffective, and why? From inherent difficulties in the nature of things abstacles absolutely insuperable so long as the country remained under the same organic conditions.

If the difficulties

were really insuperable, would they now disappear merely becaus the Chinese Government received АП increased im- port duty?" If not insuperable, why, it must be asked, do we allow the Chinese to ignore the existing treaties? It is not a good precedent Personally, however, I can see no China which would facilitate the effective carry sign of change in the organic conditions of

ing out of treaties, new or old,

THE ACTUAL FACTS ABOUT LIKIN. If any one doubts the cleverness and in genuity of the Chinese he had only, to remem. ber the actual facts about likin. Though not

strictly an illegal tax, it was a violation of existing treaties, and was never actually re cognised (though winked at) by the Powers Here however, we find ourselves actually en- gaging to pay a largely increased duty on imports and exports, in return for which the Chinese kindly engage that this unauthorised and irregular tax shall now cease. Of course, this act constitutes a recognition of the right of China to levy likin. The situation reflects the the greatest credit on Chinese diplomacy.

As for the practical difficulties in the the of the abolition of fikin these are part of the “organic conditions" to which reference has been made. On the Chinese side there is an army of a quarter of a million tax-gatherers to be compensated for the loss of their raison d'etre, From the provincial official's point of view there is extreme improbability that be will ever get enough out of the Government-controlled funds to carry on his affairs Then there is the local opposition to the opening of water- ways, etc, also a part of the new programme,

officiala have to make a living shmehow, the Provincial Governors become unpopular, while the Imperial Government, drawing its supplies regularly, will not be hard on any infringement of the treaty if it does not involve the loss of the surtax.

Of course, if we were prepared at all costs to enforce the stipulations and to uphold our treaty rights by arms, if necessary, we might expect to find China fulfilling her part of the bargain to the best of her ability. She does not expect us to go to these lengths, nor does there seem to be any likelihood or even excuse for our so doing. We have not enforced pre- vious trenties, and the story of the Englishman in China is one long history of broken engage- ments and forfeited pledges on the part of Chinn and a policy of hallucination on the part of Great Britain It must be remembered, too, that though Chinn is weaker than she was, we are not stronger, nor is our position in the Far East as assured as it once seemed to be. China is well aware of this.

Were this treaty an ultimatum, presented by all the Powers, there might be a chance that it would be carried, partially if not wholly, into will be received by Russia, France and Ger- effect. We have vet to see, however, how it

many. It is laid down in the treaty that the consent of any Power is not to be obtained by political concessions nor by any exclusive commercial concession-a prudent stipulation if it were possible to make it effective. How

a Russia, for instance, to be prevented from demanding as a quid pro quo some further railway or other concessions in the North? China could not grant this openly, of course, but there are plenty of ways by which it could, be done.

Given the treaty, signed, sealed, and ratified by all the Powers, and acclaimed in every capital of Europe and in Pekin, there still remains a great deal to be done and said before

it is possible to agree with Sir James Mackay that likin, or in other words, the whole Chinese

revolution in China we must have some abolished. Vefore we can believe in this stronger guarantee than the assurances of Sheng and the hand on heart of the Manchu Government.

method of conducting commercial affairs is

Intimations. NOTICE.

THE BEST PREVENTIVE OF ALL INFECTIOUS DISEASES,

SANITARY SOFT

SOAP.

JEYES

FLUID

LIBIA. MATANT

SOAP.

It is probable that Pekin would not seriously concern itself about any of these things, but to ignore difficulties is not to overcome them, and they. will have for the most part to be met.by the expedients so dear to Chinese hearts. A small loophole for such an expedient has already been provided in the treaty, and will be widened as occasion requires. A "con- sumption tax" on native produce has heen AVOID ALL RISK OF OUTBREAK BY given as a sop to local authorities, the Chinese Government" solemnly undertaking" that the tax will only be levied at the place of consump tion and not en route. With the disappearance of likin we shall see (not all at once perhaps, but inevitably) the growth of other trade

control of the finances of the Empire.barriers, and whether the tax is a shop fax,

Whether these conditions are for the ultimate good of China or not is certainly open to

doubt.

It is no reflection on the sapience of Sir James Mackay that his treaty should leave matters in this state. Past masters as they are in the art of evasion, the Chinese Ministers would doubtless have, contrived, whatever the wording of the clause, to get what they wanted.

terminal tax, or producer's tax, or producer's tax, or what not, will matter-little-it-will-not,

is to be presumed, be called likin.

CHINA AND THE POWERE

What cannot be understood in this country apparently is that the arguments as to the ultimate benefit of opening the country to trade appeal as little to the ordinary Chinese as to the Man in the Moon, and, moreover, the local

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Special rates allowed to members of Gover ment Services.

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