INCREASE OF POPULATION.
The following extracts from the Literary Gazelle on the Ünited States increase of popú- lation will be found interesting as applying to countries and nations in general --
The remarkable increase of population pre- dicted for the United States by Dr. H. Pritchett in a recent article in The Popular Science Monthly was noted not long ago in these columns. From a study of the past in crease, the writer attempted to deduce the law. governing it, and this law was then applied to estimate the future increase. This process, which is called by mathematicians" extrapola. tion," is acknowledged by them to be exceed. ingly risky, even in pure mathematics, and it is doubly so in application to matters where future conditions are imperfectly known. In a communication to the magazine in which Dr. Pritchett's article appeareil, Charles E. Wood- ruff, an officer in the regular army, asserts that the writer has not even taken into account some very well-known conditions. He says:
"He does not seem to have taken into con- sideration the density of population and what we might call the saturation-point, or the maximum population which can be fed. A population far below its saturation-point will increase rapidly, but when it saturates the land there is no increase, and as we approach our saturation-point our rate will rapidly diminish
to zero.
"We do not know what our saturation-point
is under the present conditions of food pro- duction; but we produce far more than is nċed- ed-for our twenty people per square mile. Nor can we estimate, our future saturation-point, for no one can presume to predict what science will enable us to do in the way of food produc tion, other than what, hy present methods, can be forced from the soil. We can only estimate our limit, Ixusing it upon the known densities in countries which have always been populated
to their limit.
"The saturation-point rises with civilization Just as the saturation-point of air for water rises with the temperature. Cultivated fand is said in produce: 1.600 times as much food as an equal area of hunting land. Denmark, for in- stance, could support hut goo paleolithic peo- ple, and when their culture rose to the level of the present Patagonians, 1,000 could exist, and 1,500 of those on the level of the natives of Hudson's Bay. In the pastoral stage each. family requires 2,000 acres, and France could not support 50,00 of such people. For cen- uries after the Norman conquest the whole of Europe could not support 100,000,000, or about 25 per square inile, while now there are 81."
The saturation-point may remain stationary in an arrested civilization, the writer notes. China, for instance, is said, to have had 400,000,000 for many centuries. On the 'other' hand, in lands where food can be bought from abroad and paid for by manufactured goods, the population can go beyond the saturation. point. Great Britats is said to import one- third of her food, and her 300 people per mile place her far beyond the point of saturation. When the enuntries from which she buys have no surplus for sale, her population must de-
crease to about 200 per milė, which is all that
she can feed. Should her factories fail through
foreign competition, so that she cannot buy: she will also decrease in population, just as Ireland has done since the beginning of the Jast century. The writer goes on to say;—
Americit was saturated by savages in pre Columbian times, and they were constantly at war for more in the land has always
been far from saturation- før civilized whites.
Thanghy we now expart enough food for a large population, we cannot produce very much more, for all the useful land is now taken up. Fully sixty per cent, of the desert lands west of the 1ooth degree of longitude will never have prevent us being as tensely populated as Europe. ent Perhaps we can now support fully 125,000,000, or 34 per mile, a point which Dr. Pritchett calculates we shall reach-in 1925, at our area. ent rate. By that time we-shall have farins on ten or fifteen per cent. of the arid lands, the limit of possible irrigation, and perhaps then we can support 200,000,000, the calculated population for 1950; but it is difficult to see how we can feed 500,000,000, our calculated numbers a little over a century hence, for that would be a density of about 125 per mile-far greater than Europe.
water on it, and that alone will forever
"It is also difficult to see how science is to produce fand indefinitely, for the real basis of food production is the soil and vegetation, such as the changing of cellulose into starches and sugars. The possible limit is the amount of the sun's energy we can capture through vege tation. The calculated population of a thousand years hence, 4100cm.coo, or 11,000 per mile, is not at present conceivable."
years.
THE HONGKONG TELEGRAPH, MONDAY, MAY 20, 1901.
UNCLAIMED LETTERS AT THE
POST OFFICE.
Larkin, A.
Lion, A. D. Leon, C.
Lawson, JH.
Minchin, D. J. Molty, M. Moothouse, J. Merry, Mrs. D. J. Menasche, L..
Murphy, Mrs. F.
Marcus, T. R.
Felicie, Blaz
Preston, B. Pascis, R.
Falris, G. (Singapore), Ramlatt Gahor Khan
Entimations.
·CANTON LAND CO., LIMITED, POTICE is hereby given that the follow-
ing-
Fosuisane, A. ·
Ferreira, F. X. P.
Ram Dhor Singh Ryan, A.
Raberts, J.
IN·o
Gewapal Singh, L.P.C.
807
Rübles, Hon. Wm. A.
Numbered.
Sultan Mahomád
Shores, D. M.
Smith, Harry
Garcia, R.
Gulab Khan, 1.P.C.
509 Gunda Singh Gleick, M.,
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Hand, J. (Manila), To Constancio Hand, Vic. Eng. School, Hongkong. Harwood, Thomas Hasham Alli, I.P.C.
667
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боз
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Nicol, J. A. Neilson, E. O'Beirne J
Hall, Capt. F. (2)
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Haynes, J.
Oakley, Miss
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Poernedo, J. G.
Paulsen, T. Pillony, J. R.
Pastewsky
Patterson, J. H.
Paisis, G.
Pinikowsky
Paul, V.
Parkinson, Dr. T. W. Pereira, Miss S. Plummer, H. A.
Pereira, A. F. M. Prince, Miss. Pereira, F. G. Perkey, Mrs. S
Kosa and Lilly' Ross
Riel, G.
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Gartatt. S.
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Hachez, H., Hooley, P. F. G. Hong, P. V.
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.
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Riegen, Capt. A.
Reid, Capt. T.
Ryder. J.
Ruse, E. P.
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Sheller, W. Sylvester,.F. W.
Schlichting, Mrs. (1 pcl.) Shi Pui Ting, (Cosuo
politan Dock). Staden, J. T. Simons & Co., J. R, Sammel & Co. Sückermann, G. Strickey, J. E. Stackwood, Mrs. Schuh, S. Tchervinsky Teske, E. Tilley, Capt. Tejada & Co, J. B. Ultam Singh Uttu Singh, 1.F.C. 774 Veasery, Mrs. L Vemura, G., Hongkong to, Kawamoto, (Mani
la).. Van Ness, Miss E. C. (2)
West, Mrs. M.
Wazir Singh
Jawalla Singh, I.P.C. Waryam Singh
614
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S.S. Assor.....
#
..G. Nazinovich. .M. Richinson.
Atlas Belgian King Abernethey, China.... .... Mr. Cooper. Deucalion.........M. J. Garbutt. Elite Narsach...J. J. McCarthey. Emma Luyken...Capt. Wallis, Hailan.......A. Anderson. Illonieneus.........T. Connollys,
Ray, Shear
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11
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Relief.........P. Schneider.
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Capt. Wilson.
List of unclaimed Telegrams lying in the Joint Telegraph Companies Offices
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at Hongkong.
Steel.
Butler Duncan Pigtail. Struntzen.
Chingtai
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Warwell Writer.
Fromeurire.
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Scaulan, J.
Lapraik.
Solomon, Major L, L.
Lichuensbang.
Smith, W. A.
Matthew, Joseph.
Saaid, J.
Messagerie.
Sicon, E.
Quanonlong.
Stephen, A.
Quanonsung.
Stewart, Messrs. J. & G. Powlee.
Starr, Miss E.
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Shrewsbury, R. W.
Stephens G.
Stanley, N. L.
Sawada, Miss Sare, Miss G.··· Schuh, S.
Stanley, L
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Westcole, Mrs. H. Wheate, W. E.
Wallace, F.
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Welch,
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Wheeler, T. Woods & Go. Wennberg, O.
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Watts, Mr.
Wolfenden, H. W. H.
Ward, E Young, W. R. Zino, G. A.
Hughes, E. Hughes, Mrs. The law of population, the writer points out Ingold, F. is that its increase depends upon its density, Insley, Hrs, H. R.' irrespective of the birth-rate. At the saturation- point the death-rate and the birth-rate must be Jeffries, Rev. M.
Johnson, J. equal, as they are now in China, where there
Joasiano, S. is at the same time a large birth-rate and also frightful destruction of life by pestilence, Jenkins, C. M. Jon, A. (Sailor) famine, and murder. He goes on to say:
Jannot "Our civilization will never,, tolerate such
Jama, Mrs. mortality, nor can the surplus migrate, as it
Jansson, Andreas has been doing from Europe for four hundred Kirkpatrick, M, C.
Yet we need have no fear of future Kinn, C. H. famines and pestilence due to overcowding Kelper, G. and necessary in India and China, for the
Karmante, S. solution of the problem will come of its own
Kirk, R. Accord in a natural limitation of the size of
Kelton, W. By the time we have reached Kuhn, F. families. our maximum growth, it is quite likely that the Kneuzle and Streiff number of children in American families will Kukman, G. W. be less than three, or just enough to compen Knapp, J.W sale for unavoidable deaths and still keep the
Kobruson, C. J. population stationary. The deliberations of the Malthusian societies may appear very London, H. J.
Lawring, C. C... absurd, but they are merely discussings things Lester, H. which are sure to come about naturally and Lyall, R. mot artificially.
"Thusin Dr. Pritchett's estimates of our future Liesa, Miss Laglaize L, population of 11,000 per square mile being Laher, A, based upon the rates' of increase in a country far below its saturation-point, it seems that a better formula could have been obtained by taking the increases in European countries which probably have been saturated since the glacial times and supersaturated ever since they became maritime powers and could import food. Thus England had 5,500,000 in 1650, and only 6,500,000 in 1750 and less than 9,000,000 in 1800; since then, through food importations due to commerce, her rate of in- crease has been about thirteen per cent par decade. Our rate, as above stated, was thirty. two per cent. in 1800, twenty-four per cant: ip 1880, and the time it will be thirteen may be long before 1990, and it is quite likely to be zero with a century or two.
Our Juntry will never contain more people than it can feed, and the struggle for existence
Murad Khan 1.P.C. 529 or the stress of life will not be a particle more
Mayson, William severe than now. Since the first paleolithic Chunda Singh, LP.C. MacVeagh, E. man appeared on the scene, Europe has supe ported as many men as she could and has thus Clarks, J. been at the saturation-point, ever on the verge Chao, HV of over-population, needing famines, wars of Crane, E. H... expansion, and other forms of death, so that Cox, Miss M. J. there has always been the same struggle for Cotewall, H. existence we see now, and that struggle can Darnelli, Miss F. never be more severe than it has always been. Delhi, N. M. Khan there. The course of civilization, would even Dean Singh, Justify a prediction that life will be made easter, 547 so that posterity may pity us as we pity our Duff, A savage ancestors in their terrible struggle for | Fox, F- (a) axistence
Fatmales (Bombay)
મા
List of Registered Covers in Poste-Rostante. Ahmed Dean, 1.P.C. Johnson, C. E.
638 (2)
Koch, Carl Abda Khan, I.P.C. 798 Kader Hadjie Mo- Attare Khan, No. 774, hamed Abdul Blank, Miss A, Arran Kahn, R.
dale, Southport (1) Kemper, A. C. Returned.
Lyons & Co. Js Bota Singh
Ludah Singh Boya and Co., Supt. Mohamed Akbar
Brewery,
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-L.P.C. 856
McKay, Charles Bergmann, B. & R. Morris, Capt. R., LA. Brimbie, Capt. A. Mondha Singh Bortolo, B.
Mobamed Bobal Singh Clarkson, G.
C
Marlé, Hugo
McNab, J.
Mirza Sadig
Nogueira, F Nogueira, M. Nawab Khan, I.B.CR3?
N. CHIL
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Pederson, C
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LAU CHU PAK, Care of A. S. Watson & Co., Ltd. Tiongkong, 1st April. 10
T1756 TO LET. HOUSE in RITON TERRACE.
HOUSES at LEIGHTON HILL Apply in
A
THE HONGKONG LAND INVEST. MENT & AGENCY CO., LD. Hangbang, 1st May,
Consignees,
[209c
NORTHERN PACIFIC STEAMSHIP
COMPANY.
NOTICE TO CONSIGNEES.
STEAMSHIP. "VICTORIA," FROM TACOMA, VICTORIA, YOKO: HAMA, KOBE, MOJI AND SHANGHAI.
The above Steniner having arrived, Can- signces of Cargo are hereby requested to send. in their Bills of Lading for countersignattire and to take immediate delivery of their Goods from alongside.
Cargo impeding the discharge of the Vessel will be landed and stored at Consignees' risk and expense.
DODWELL & Co., LIMITED, Agents.
Hongkong, 14th May, 1901.
PACIFIC MAIL STEAMSHIP COMPANY.
NOTICE.
CONSIGNEES of CARGO per Steamship..
"CHINA."
The above Steiner having arrived, Consignees of Cargo are hereby requested to send in their Bills of Lading for countersignature, and-to- take immediate. delivery of their Goods from alongside.
Cargo impeding the discharge of the Vessel will be landed and stored at Consignees' risk- and expense.
GEORGE ECKLEY, Acting Agent.
"
Hongkong, 16th May, 1901.
AUSTRIAN LLOYD'S STEAM NAVIGA.
TION COMPANY, ·
NOTICE TO CONSIGNEES.
FROM YOKOHAMA AND KOBE.
THE Steamship
"GISELA,"
having arrived, Consignees of Cargo are hereby informed that their Goods are being landed at their risk into the Godowns of the Hongkong and Kowloon Wharf and Godown Company, Limited, whence delivery may be obtained.
No Claims will be admitted after the Goods have left the Godowns, and all claims must be sent in to the Office of the Undersigned before Noon, on the 22nd instant, or they will not be recognised.
No Fire Insurance has been effected, and any "Goods remaining in the Godowns after the and
instant, will be subject to rent.
Bills of Lading will be countersigned by
SANDER, WIELER & CO., Agents. Hongkons, 17th May, 1001.
[422C FROM HAMBURG, PENANG AND SINGAPORE.
HE N.D.L. Steamship
"NUERNBERG," Captain Mayer, having arrived from the above Ports, Consignees of Cargo are hereby requested to send in their Bills of Lading for. countersignature by the Undersigned and to take immediate delivery of their goods from: alongside..
Optional Cargo will be forwarded unless notice to the contrary be given before 10 AM [16: TO-DAY,
MERICAN SYSTEM, WONG HO-MI;
AM SURG. DENTIST. “TERMS” MODERATE, CONSULTATION FREE. SO, QUEEN'S ROAD CENTRAL Hongkong, and January, roar.
SIEN TING,
SURGEON. DENTIST, No. 14, DAGUILAR STREET TERMS VERY MODERATE, Consultation free. Hongkong, 27th Septembar, 1898,
For Sale.
NOW READY.
THE
AND
SPECIAL DESCRIPTIVE
-STATISTICAL EDITION. OF THE
HONGKONG · TELEGRAPH."
TEN_PAGES..
PRICE 60 CENTS.
f39
THOSE desirous of aluniping copies should
order early, as only a limited number. has been struck off and a Second Edition can not be printed
The Special Edition will be mailed to any address on receipt of 68 cents. to, cover cost
SEA WITCH, American ship, Howes,-Master, | ADOLPH OBRIG, American ship, Amesbury and Postage,
Standard Of Ca,
Fongkong, and May, too.
Any Cargo impeding her discharge will ba landed into the Godowns of the Hongkong and Kowloon Wharf and Godown Co., Limitad, and stored at Consignees' risk and expense.
No Claims will be admitted after the: Gooda have left the Godowns, and all Goods remaine ing undelivered after the 24th instant, will be subject to rent
All broken, chafed, and damaged Goods are to be left in the Godowns, where they will, be examined on the 24th instant, at 3 P.M. No Fire Insurance has been effected.
HAMBURG-AMERIKA LINIE, Hongkong Office. Hongkong, 18th May, 1901. g [3360 AUSTRIAN LLOYD'S STEAM NAVIGA- TION COMPANY.
NOTICE TO CONSIGNEES:-
FROM BOMBAY AND SINGAPORE."
HE Steamship THE
"MELPOMENE":
having arrived, Consignees of Cargo are hereby informed that their Goods are being landed at their risk into the Godowns of the Hongkong and Kowloon Wharf and Godown Company, Limited, whence delivery may be obtained
Optional Cargo will badischarged here, unless notice to the contrary be given immediately..
No Claims will be admitted after the Goods have left the Godowns, and all Claims must be sent in to the office of the Undersigned before recognised the 24th instant, or they will not de
No Fire Insurance has been effected, and any Goods remaining in the Godowns after the 346 instant, will be subject to rent
Bills of Lading will be countenigned by
SANDER WIELER & CO.,
Dgp Agents. Hongkong, tük May, 1901),
Page 5Page 6
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