Sessional_Paper_1937 — Page 85

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21. The revenue from water charges, apart from rates, will probably amount to $1,700,000 for 1936 as against about $2,000,000 for 1935 when the rate for excess water was 50% higher than in 1936. The consumer has thus been able to obtain considerably more water for a smaller aggregate cost.

22. An estimate of probable requirements of the City for the next five years is shown in Appendix III, an average annual increase of .5 M.G./D. being allowed. Taking the present consumption (on full supply) at 14.0 M.G./D. this would give the estimated requirements for 1941 as 16.5 M.G./D. This has been based on the assumption that development will continue and the standard of living will rise as envisaged in paragraph 12 of Messrs. Sir A. Binnie, Son & Deacon's report mention- ed above.

MAINLAND REQUIREMENTS

23. The probable future requirements of the Mainland are even less easily estimated than those of the Island. Whereas further building development on the Island is difficult, new areas being somewhat restricted, the reverse is the case in Kowloon with its flatter and more extensive areas available. With a return to better trading conditions development would proceed rapidly and one can visualize that at no great distant date the Kowloon range of hills may become a second "Peak District''.

24. The increase in consumption of water this year has also been very marked. Appendix III shows the requirements estimated for Kowloon by Messrs. Sir A. Binnie, Son & Deacon. Although restrictions were in force for 140 days, it will be observed that the actual consumption for 1936 is between that previously estimated for 1937 and 1938 whilst had there been no restrictions the consumption would most probably have been about equal to that estimated for 1939 or 8.5 M.G./D.

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25. The only reasons that can be given for this increase are those adumbrat- ed for the higher consumption in the City.

26. An estimate of probable consumption in Kowloon for the next five years is also shown in Appendix III, an average annual increase of .6 M.G./D. being allowed. A slightly higher rate than that of the City has been assumed on account of more modern sanitary arrangements and the greater probability of industrial development in Kowloon. Taking the 1936 consumption (on full supply) at 8.5 M.G./D. this would give the estimated requirements for 1941 as 11.5 M.G./D.

COMBINED REQUIREMENTS

27. The estimated combined requirements for 1937 are therefore 14.5 M.G./D. for the City and 9.1 M.G./D. for Kowloon making a total of 23.6 M.G./D. or slightly higher than the present minimum resources of 23.25 M.G./D. (see para. 14)

28. The estimated combined requirements for 1941 are 16.5 M.G./D. for the City and 11.5 M.G./D. for Kowloon making a total of 28. M.G./D., or a deficit of 4.75 M.G./D.

29. Owing to the interval of time which must necessarily elapse between the date of proposal and date of completion of new works and in order to provide against the contingency of the actual rate of increase in consumption being greater than that estimated, it is strongly recommended that an amount of 15% be added to the estimated requirements. The total resources necessary for 1937 would then be 27.14 M.G./D. and for 1941 they would be 32.2 M.G./D.

30. It is therefore obvious that the provision of further supplies must be put in hand as early as possible if restrictions, in the event of low rainfall years, are to be avoided.