Sessional_Paper_1904 — Page 736

615

It was only by continued examination of enormous numbers of rats and careful microscopic and bacteriological methods that these results have been elicited.

Throughout the whole of 1902, I was ably assisted by many willing hands, and my thanks are due to the members of the Sanitary and Medical Departments who have at all times rendered me every assistance possible.

I do not conclude for a moment that all the lessons to be learnt from the accompanying charts are given in my resumé. Perhaps careful examination of these by other observers may lead to new facts and varied interpretations. The results of 1902 are merely put forward as a further link in the already strong chain of evidence in favour of the rat theory of plague.

These observations have been extended throughout the whole of 1903 and part of 1904. These results will be compared with those of 1902, and the sequence of events which happened during the interval between the epidemic of 1902 and 1903, and that between 1903 and 1904 will be shown as clearly as possible.

It is only by such a systematic examination that results of value can be obtained, and these investigations which were begun over two years ago, and have been continued without intermission ever since, ought to enable us to decide, whether the rat theory is in reality only supposition or is founded upon actual fact.

WILLIAM HUNTER.

The History of the Colony in 1902.

On this chart, we have, in condensed form, the epizootic and epidemic curves. We have no reliable data in regard to the presence of rat plague previous to the Sth of April. Cases of the epidemic bad occurred from time to time, but in more or less sporadic form.

During the week ending April the 8th, the amount of rat plague was estimated. Human plague was then existent, but the cases were few in number. During the 2nd week of April, the epizootic began to rise. No change in the epidemic was noted during this week.

During the 3rd week of April, the epidemic began to rise.

From this point onwards, both outbreaks increased in severity, the one following the other, the interval being 10 days to a fortnight.

The maximum of rat plague was reached on the week ending the 13th of May.

The maximum of human plague was attained on the week ending the 3rd of June, a little over a fortnight later.

The

Subsequent to this date, variations in rat plague are followed by variations in the epidemic. Both fall together, the epidemic disappearing gradually. epizootic, on the other hand, after a pronounced fall, reasserts itself, and runs with a varying severity until the end of the year.

WILLIAM HUNTER.

The History of Health District No. 1 in 1902.

The history commences from the 8th of April. Rat plague is already existent on the 8th of April, but is slight in amount.

So far it has not been accompanied by epidemic plague. A fortnight later a considerable rise in rat plague takes place, succeeded by a fall in about a week later. A week or ten days after this initial rise in rat plague, human plague appears.

The course of the epidemic curve follows closely that of the epizootic curve, It is only delayed about 14 days. A second rise in the epizootic takes place in May towards the end of the month.