THE HONGKONG GOVERNMENT GAZETTE, 13TH OCTOBER, 1894. 881
The above table shews that the gale reached its height about 9.00 a.m. on September 25th, that the wind blew with typhoon force for 3 hours, namely, from 7.30 a.m. to 10.30 a.m., also that the wind did not reach on the average force 9 till after 4 a.m., nor did it exceed force 7 or a moderate gale till after 3 a.m. Therefore the actual amount of notice or warning given to the shipping in the harbour was 5 hours, and to the inhabitants of the Colony it was 4 hours. When it is remembered that 4 hours is ordinarily sufficient for a steamer to get steam, it is shown that no harm ought to have resulted to such vessels, and had the 4 or 5 hours been hours of daylight I am assured that no complaint would have been made of want of warning from any quarter. Storms may, of course, arise at any hour of the day or night, and it is not possible to give a longer notice when the latter and not the former occurs.
I greatly regret that a longer notice was not given, but I maintain that it was impossible, and this will be shown by a consideration of the circumstances subsequent to September 24th 4 p.m., which time no observations were receivable from outside the Colony, and my action had to be after determined entirely by the observations given above, and at which time the typhoon was probably in lat. 19° 30′ N and 116° 30′ E or 240 miles SE of Hongkong, although the full consideration of all the observations led me to place it in lat. 18° 0′ N, long. 116° 0′ E. It is most unfortunate that at this time no observations were received from Swatow, (they have not yet arrived at the time of writing), otherwise the doubt which remained as to the exact position at 4 p.in. might have been cleared up. Ordinarily when we have lost touch of a typhoon at Bolinao, it is taken up at Swatow, which though a much less important station becomes invaluable at such times.
The first point to call attention to is the unsteadiness of the wind from 9 a.m. to 7 p.m. In the case of a typhoon approaching any place in a direct course this should have been steadily from one quarter, with no variation except a gradual increase of force. The reason the wind behaved so differently on this occasion was that the depression was an irregular one, in some part of which a small typhoon was situated. The same irregularity gave rise to thunderstorms which very seldom accompany typhoons, and which alone led many seafaring Chinese in the harbour to assert that there would be no typhoon even after our gun was fired.
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Secondly, the barometer in spite of slight risings and fallings, caused by the thunderstorms above noted, was practically steady from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. (it had fallen only 0.01 inch in seventeen hours, log from midnight to 5 p.m.) which leads me to hold that up to the latter hour the course had continued as before, namely W, or at most W by N, which direction, if maintained, and it had been maintained for 57 hours previously, would have kept the centre well to the southward of Hongkong. At 8 p.m. there was reason to suspect that a more northerly course was being taken, at 9 p.m. the continued fall of the barometer confirmed this impression, and at 10 p.m., at which time there was still little or no wind, the signal was given that bad weather was to be expected, and that the wind would veer. Had this fall in the barometer not been continued for as long as two hours, there could have been no assurance that it was not a slight temporary fall, caused by thunderstorms, such as took place between noon and 2 p.m. (see preceding table) and would not have justified me in alarming the Colony.
Finally, I would call attention to the great service that would have been rendered in this case from a more frequent communication with the station at Gap Rock. Communication ceases with Gap Rock at 4 p.m., and is not resumed until 7 a.m, on the next day, and we have not even the privilege of asking for repeated observations at critical times as we have at Bolinao, and I beg here to call your attention to paragraph X of the Annual Report of the Observatory for 1893, in which it is stated that "Victoria Peak and Gap Rock are not yet in direct communication with the Observatory, but it is "probable that this improvement will be effected shortly. The important messages from these two "stations, on which local warnings mainly depend, are often received too late." This much needed improvement has not yet been effected by the Government, and the want of it has been keenly felt.
That the typhoon was, as I have stated, a small one is proved by the experience of the S.S. Darmstadt which at noon on September 25th, when only 150 miles from Hongkong, had light SW winds; as well as of the S.S. Machew and S.S. Lightning which had fine weather until they were well north of the 19th parallel. In all cases of such small typhoons the observations at Gap Rock are of the utmost value, and I do not hesitate to say that the warning given would have been 2 or 3 hours longer had the observations from Swatow been received or had those from Gap Rock been more frequent and continued beyond the usual hours of telegraphing such messages to us.
At the same time it is necessary to remark that the warnings given in the case of small typhoons must always be of shorter duration than those given of the larger and more regular disturbances.
JOHN I. PLUMMER, Acting Director.
Hongkong Observatory, September 28th, 1894.
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