TNAG-2991-FCO40-3566-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-1992 — Page 14

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037741

MDHIAN 21、

A fact of Life, Can't fürm clock back

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THE

FUTURE RATHER THAN SIMPLY HAVING ''GONE OVER TO THE CHINESE' CRC ALSO HAVE CREDIBILITY WITH THE CHINESE WHO APPROVE OF THEIR INCLUSION IN EXCO. WE ALSO AGREE WITH THE CONCLUSION IN PARAS 4 AND 5 THAT THE INCLUSION OF UDHK MEMBERS IN EXCO WOULD DO LITTLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE EXECUTIVE-LED GOVERNMENT. IT WOULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE A SEVERE REACTION FROM THE CHINESE.

5. THE CONCEPT OF A DE-POLITICISED EXCO INTRODUCED IN PARA 6 OF TUR IS ONE WHICH THE CHINESE SHOULD IN THEORY WELCOME SINCE IT WOULD APPEAR TO MOVE TOWARDS AN EXCO WHICH COULD BE RELIED UPON TO PROVIDE GENUINE SUPPORT TO THE EXECUTIVE. WE AGREE THAT SUCH AN EXCO SHOULD FULFIL THE PURPOSE IN 2(A) OF TUR BUT BE EVEN LESS CERTAIN TO PROVIDE 2(B) THAN THE CURRENT EXCO. IT IS NOT FOR US TO PREDICT TO WHAT EXTENT THE HONG KONG PUBLIC WOULD FIND AN EXCO COMPOSED OF OFFICIALS AND INDIVIDUALS WITHOUT ANY LEGCO MEMBERSHIP CREDIBLE, OR WHAT THE RESPONSE OF THE VARIOUS PARTIES IN LEGCO WOULD BE TO SUCH A SUGGESTION, THOUGH WE IMAGINE THE CRC WOULD TAKE BADLY TO BEING THROWN OUT OF EXCO AND THE UDHK TO BEING DENIED

ADMISSION.

6.

TO A CERTAIN EXTENT CRC AND UDHK REACTIONS MIGHT BE TEMPERED BY INCLUSION IN THE PROPOSED HINGE BODY'. DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE CRC AND UDHK WOULD BE CONTAINED IN LEGCO OR THE HINGE BODY' RATHER THAN CREATING TENSION BETWEEN EXCO AND LEGCO. THIS SHOULD ENABLE EXCO TO RESUME MORE CLEARLY ITS LEADING AND NON-PARTISAN ROLE. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW EXACTLY THE HINGE BODY' WOULD FUNCTION. WE ASSUME THE IDEA TO BE THAT EXCO WOULD DECIDE ON A POLICY WHICH WOULD THEN BE PUT TO THE HINGE BODY' IN THE HOPE THAT THE HINGE BODY WOULD ACCEPT IT AND DELIVER THE VOTES OF

THEIR RESPECTIVE LEGCO GROUPINGS. HONG KONG IS BETTER PLACED THAN WE TO JUDGE WHETHER THIS WOULD BE WORKABLE. WE BELIEVE THE CHINESE MIGHT WELL REGARD A HINGE BODY' PLAYING SUCH A ROLE AS A THREAT TO EXCO'S POSITION UNDER CERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES. FOR EXAMPLE, APPOINTING MARTIN LEE TO THE HINGE BODY' WOULD BE, IN CHINESE EYES, GIVING HIM A POSITION EVEN STRONGER THAN HIS CURRENT POSITION IN LEGCO FROM WHICH TO CHALLENGE THE EXECUTIVE. THE CHINESE WOULD WELCOME THE FACT THAT UNDER THE NEW ARRANGEMENTS THE DANGER OF MARTIN LEE SITTING IN EXCO WOULD BE DEFINITIVELY EXCLUDED. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE GOVERNOR'S PARTICIPATION IN THE HINGE BODY' AND THE LINK ASSUMED BETWEEN ITS DELIBERATIONS AND THE RESULTING VOTE IN LEGCO WOULD STILL BRING POLITICAL ISSUES AND CONFLICT CLOSER TO

THE EXECUTIVE THAN WAS THE CASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DIRECTLY-ELECTED MEMBERS IN LEGCO.

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