TNAG-2990-FCO40-3574-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-talks-betwee-1992 — Page 95

CONFIDENTIAL

pwR China анди

CONFIDENTIAL

FM FCO

TO DESKBY 27010OZ PEKING

TELNO 846

OF 262013Z OCT 92

INFO DESKBY 27010OZ HONG KONG, UKREP JLG HONG KONG

172126 MDHOAN 3129

YOUR TELNO 1472: THE GOVERNOR'S VISIT TO CHINA: CHINESE STRATEGY

1.

THANK YOU FOR SENDING US YOUR IMPRESSIONS OF THE GOVERNOR'S VISIT IN TUR. IN PREPARATION FOR DISCUSSION OF THE WAY FORWARD DURING THE GOVERNOR'S VISIT TO LONDON IN MID-NOVEMBER, WE NEED TO DEVELOP FOR MINISTERS THE BEST ASSESSMENT WE CAN OF LIKELY CHINESE STRATEGY IN THE MONTHS AHEAD. AS A FIRST STEP, WE WOULD BE GRATEFUL FOR ANY FURTHER VIEWS YOU CAN OFFER ON WHAT SEEM TO US TO BE THE KEY QUESTIONS. WE RECOGNISE THAT THERE CAN BE NO DEFINITIVE ANSWERS AT THIS STAGE. WE ALSO LOOK FORWARD TO THE THOUGHTS WHICH THE GOVERNOR WILL BE SENDING ON THE WAY FORWARD CHONG KONG TELNO 2564).

2.

IN THE SHORT TERM, WE ASSUME THAT THE CHINESE ARE LIKELY TO CAMP ON THE POSITION ADOPTED DURING THE GOVERNOR'S VISIT, CONCENTRATING ON A PROPAGANDA BATTLE IN HONG KONG WITH THE AIM OF FRIGHTENING AS MANY PARTS OF THE COMMUNITY AS POSSIBLE, AND SO UNDERMINING SUPPORT FOR THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS. THEY WILL NOT COME FORWARD WITH ANY COUNTER-PROPOSALS OF THEIR OWN: HAVING INDICATED THE CHANNELS WHICH CAN BE USED (THE JLG AND ZHOU NAN) THEY WILL WAIT FOR US TO MAKE THE NEXT MOVE. DO YOU BELIEVE THAT THE CHINESE WILL CONFINE THE CAMPAIGN TO PROPAGANDA? OR IS THERE ANY LIKELIHOOD THAT THEY COULD EXPLOIT OTHER PRESSURE POINTS? (POSSIBILITIES ARE CONTRACTS AND FRANCHISES, LAND, BUT NOT WE ASSUME THE MORE EXTREME PRESSURES THEORETICALLY OPEN TO THEM SUCH AS THE INTERRUPTION OF SUPPLIES ACROSS THE BORDER.)

3.

WE ALSO NEED TO ASSESS AS BEST WE CAN OVER HOW BROAD A FRONT OF UK/CHINA RELATIONS THE CHINESE MIGHT RETALIATE FOR OUR PERCEIVED NON-COOPERATION OVER CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES. WE NOTE YOUR COMMENTS THAT THE CHINESE HAVE NO INTENTION OF CONTAINING THE DISPUTE TO THE AREAS OF POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE AIRPORT: AND THAT IT IS BOUND TO AFFECT OTHER AREAS OF COOPERATION. THE JLG IS BOUND TO BE A CASUALTY OF THIS. BUT THE GOVERNOR HAD A CORDIAL DISCUSSION OF ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL ISSUES AT THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS AND TRADE.

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